Miscellaneous News

[Biscuits]

No, a lot of reforms and the likes that Xi has initiated isn't just 'his will' or the likes. It's the party that is behind a lot, and much of it would not be overturned by a successor.

Could go far more into stuff, but too lazy, but all in all, you really don't know much about the China's government/party/leadership.

No.
Investment in military has been stable at around 5.5% of government expenses for the last 20ish years (and about ~1.5% of gdp).

Not really.
First of all, you underestimate the potential costs of AR, and no, it isn't only for some wealthy/few individual members. And second, a lot of the wealth on Taiwan would likely be used/redistributed to people on Taiwan (to more quickly and less 'painfully' get control and reign over Taiwan).

Ehhh...
Maybe, don't have much to comment about this though.

The party and government has their own plans and thoughts on how to resolve the 'Taiwan problem', whether that be peacefully or militarily.

(Moreover, it will 100% happen and also before 2035, in fact, probably even before 2030).

As I see it, China intends to just hold the line. They did not invest in the military much, but it's also undeniable that just because of its status as the largest economy, the PLA automatically gets a very strong lineup due to osmosis from the economy.

It will repel attacks on Taiwan from anyone, but will not start bombing the separatists randomly.

However, I think random economic sanctions or dictats can start to happen, as China is looking to tighten up its economy and maneuver in the global economical sphere. So for example export bans that ROC will be expected to obey, the halting/redirecting of economic activity in ports etc. Depending on China's specific needs.

 

[drowingfish]

It is more of a culture thing. They apply same to themselves. Ask them to name their own government cabinets and they cant. Perhaps it came from religion where they attach all meaning to one representative(the monothiest god or its single representative).

it has more to do with a lack of life experience. journalists will come out of school and write articles for a living. most of them likely has never worked for within a team larger than the editorial department.

 

[4Runner]

Some randoms thoughts on Sunday in a long weekend.

On Taiwan, the mainland social media has been more normal than as far as I can remember. This is a good sign in that the Chinese public have no illusion. This is also good for the system insiders that Taiwan is as a long game as US/China tango. On the other hand, the fact that the US media is unusually quiet on Taiwan speaks volume on the current state of geopolitical affairs.

On Gaza, US is slipping into a conundrum. An already divided American public is being torn further apart among different voting blocks. The most surprising part is that only UK meaningfully stands on the US side. US is doing a de-service to its united front with the Europe that is forged during the Ukraine war.

On Ukraine, US is distracted and tired.

On China, it is still in the process of digesting the real estate bubble that is 20 years in the making. All current manifested economic problems China is facing derive from that. The reason I am not using "busting" is that the current process was initiated by the current Chinese central government according to its own plans. The Chinese knew for a few years that this de-leveraging process would have to occur. It takes Xi's 3rd term to actually execute on a nation-wide scale. IIHO, it will take 5-10 years for the Chinese real estate markets to get back to normalcy.

On US, the election year is usually friendly to the stock markets. Noise levels are going to be high, but the boots on the ground are going to be more normal than media would portrait. US economy is going to muddle through, while the rest of the world is going to struggle at various degrees.

On US-China relation, I actually think 2024 will mark as a "US China friendship year" (pun intended). There are many hot spots around the world. But US and China will try to behave like grown-ups as far as relationship is concerned. US will do whatever it takes to slow down Chinese semiconductor advancements. That is pretty much about it.

On Europe, it is going to get worse. When I predicted the Europe downturn at the beginning of a protracted Ukraine war (3-5 years), the events of Gaza type were not in play. Now Europe is going in a direction that is worse than I predicted back then. The European public is being fundamentally torn apart. Now I am seriously doubt about the survival of EU, which is definitely a first in my thinking. Europe is being squeezed in 4 directions: Russia, US, China and Global South.

Back to Taiwan, the current geopolitical state of affairs is much more favorable to China than the Chinese could possibly game the Taiwan issue. Now I think China will try to strangle Taiwan in a slow cooking fashion. Japan is on a down slope. South Korea is on a down slope. Europe is on a down slope. Australia is trying to balance. Canada is being Canadian. There is no hurry period. Let time do its own magic.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Chinese professor Liu Yadong denied the heinous allegations that he made the new Taiwanese Vice President climax five times a night while they were young spry international students in Columbia University.

PS: It was actually six times a night.

Yikes turns out that liberalism is a venereal disease. All the frog bonking has turned Professor Liu into something of a Chinese liberal.

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[BoraTas]

We need funny stuff thread back

 

[supercat]

Taiwan is already independent.

Well, any region can declare independence. Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, and even Shanghai can do it. The crucial part is how many other countries will recognize your sovereignty and are willing to establish diplomatic relationship with you. Unfortunately for Taiwan, only 13 countries out of 184 or so in the world recognize its independence. Out of these 13, only 4 countries, Vatican, Guatemala, Paraguay, and Haiti are not one earthquake away from sinking into the sea. Taiwan is more diplomatically isolated than ever.

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I'm thinking that maybe China should openly allocate a special military budget for the reunification with Taiwan, for example, 0.5% of GDP, on top of all other military expenditures. This number can increase if necessary, acting as a deterrence against Taiwan Independence.

 

[Rank Amateur]

I am hopeful for peaceful reunification, both are Chinese people, the same people, same culture same language, etc

Just some of politicians that have a wet dream that the the US would die for them in a war with China

Taiwanese ppl are very nice people, one of the nicest ppl I've ever met, totally different than Hongkong ppl

"Taiwanese ppl are very nice people, one of the nicest ppl I've ever met, totally different than Hongkong ppl"

Hongkong SDF members: "What. The. F-ck."

 

[FriedButter]

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"At every juncture, Netanyahu has given Biden the finger," Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), who has been in close contact with U.S. officials about the war, told Axios.

Biden hasn't spoken to Netanyahu in the 20 days since a tense Dec. 23 call, which a frustrated Biden ended with the words: "This conversation is over."

 

[TK3600]

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When the overlord is unsatisfied with his vassal. The overlord is Israel of course.

 

[Biscuits]

Well, any region can declare independence. Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, and even Shanghai can do it. The crucial part is how many other countries will recognize your sovereignty and are willing to establish diplomatic relationship with you. Unfortunately for Taiwan, only 13 countries out of 184 or so in the world recognize its independence. Out of these 13, only 4 countries, Vatican, Guatemala, Paraguay, and Haiti are not one earthquake away from sinking into the sea. Taiwan is more diplomatically isolated than ever.

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I'm thinking that maybe China should openly allocate a special military budget for the reunification with Taiwan, for example, 0.5% of GDP, on top of all other military expenditures. This number can increase if necessary, acting as a deterrence against Taiwan Independence.

In actuality, those 13 countries are not exactly endorsing secession of Taiwan from China, they're arguing for the KMT being legitimate government and opposing the legitimacy of the Beijing government.

This is also the standpoint of the so called Republic of "China" that operates out of Taipei.

Obviously both threatening to coup the whole country and illegally making off with parts of the country are both unacceptable aggressions, I don't know which should be argued to be worse, but the claim by those 13 countries is the former and not the latter.