Miscellaneous News

[siegecrossbow]

I don’t see why people are so upset about the situation. China has always played the long game. Remember the Tibetan separatists in 2008? Remember the Xinjiang separatists in early 2010s? If your memory can’t go back that far, how about Hong Kong separatists in 2019? How has the situation turned out since then?

I have a feeling that we are getting a repeat of the semiconductor thread here.

Here how it will go, I used my special powers and predicted the future so that people can finally stop worrying:

• US announces new harsh sanctions on Chinese IC industry
• SDF hyperventilation (current time, we are at this stage)
• China's response will be hidden from plain sight
• Chinese foreign spokesman/woman says "we urge the American side to change course or they will have to face the collective will of 1.4 billion Chinese people"
• Global Times editorial "America shows its unreliability, domestic companies will benefit, US should focus on its own issues and stop worrying about China"
• Xi-Biden meeting, China's foreign ministry statement, "Biden said he doesnt want a cold war, and he doesn't support Taiwan's independence". "Xi said he supports a win-win cooperative relationship with US and building a community with a shared future for mankind"
• The entire West, social media, think tankers ridicule China for its weak/no response to US actions
• SDF continues its hyperventilation
• 2-3 years later, a report comes out from a random Western organisation, "China is actually winning the tech war and EUV machine is ready"
• SDF relief, "we won, finally, the end!"
• Some months later, the US announces new extremely harsh sanctions on an unrelated industry that China still heavily depends on the US.
• SDF hyperventilation
• REPEAT from stage 3

 

[drowingfish]

I believe the CPC have lost the desire to reunify Taiwan by force. Too many elites are happy with the comfortable life to upset the apple cart in a war for reunification. Too much to lose.
There is no 3D chess here. The richer China gets, the less likely the desire for war. No economic pressure applied. No military pressure applied. All we get are big speeches.

We can mock the Indians all we want, but at least they had the balls to eliminate separatist leaders living in Western countries.

to the contrary, i think the CPC's resolve has strengthened for a few reasons:

1. Reminiscent of Bismarck, Xi wants this to cement his legacy. it is more than just to have his name in the books, but more so to secure his reforms. he undoubtedly knows that after him the new party leadership can overturn his reforms as quickly as Deng overturned that of Mao. one way to protect at least some of the reforms is to elevate his own status to an unprecedented level, with a historical reunification by peaceful means or by arm. so Taiwan is important in and of itself yes, but for Xi there is an added dimension of legitimizing his efforts of transforming the party beyond reproach. the first military victory for China in 30 years would certainly make him stand out.

2. the party has invested heavily in the military. you simply don't spend this much preparing for war if you don't have one in mind. this is not to say that the party leadership wants a war or is looking for one, but it is an indication that they think one is coming and do not intend on avoiding it. before 2010 I think the party had little appetite for AR, but the balance of power has shifted since then and it is apparent today that this goal is actually within grasp. not saying that it is a cakewalk but it is definitely within their capabilities.

3. while some members of the party have personal interests that would be harmed in case of AR, more of the party's interested would be served by AR. semantics aside, taking Taiwan is like annexing a small, moderately wealthy country. if we talk purely in economic terms, there is a lot of wealth on that island, a lot of money to be made. personally I think that so long as AR does not devolve into full scale pacific war with the US, it will benefit China economically. although war is expensive, but much of that expense had already been rendered in the past three decades of military build up. taking the island is more of a return on those investments.

4. AR will allow the CPC to reset some of the inefficiencies that have built up in its system, and reinvigorate the party and the state bureaucracy, we have seen this at play during covid. in case of a quick victory, the party will come out in a much stronger position. not only will they have boosted their legitimacy, they would have also expanded control over the public and private sector through the mobilization process. just like covid, it is also a test for the party apparatus, where the underperformers are flushed out and overachievers are promoted.

based on the four points above, i think the party leadership is definitely looking seriously at making substantial moves towards reunification. the example to follow here is Bismarck, a methodical and controlled approach, with a decisive blow dealt at a time of his choosing, rather than passively waiting for the other side to cross some sort of red line.

 

[Randomuser]

I don’t see why people are so upset about the situation. China has always played the long game. Remember the Tibetan separatists in 2008? Remember the Xinjiang separatists in early 2010s? If your memory can’t go back that far, how about Hong Kong separatists in 2019? How has the situation turned out since then?

I have a feeling that we are getting a repeat of the semiconductor thread here.

The media knows the average person has the memory of a goldfish so it keeps repeating on repeating. But that's ok. It's words only not action. If in the end this step by step leads to China's victory why change it? You don't want your opponent to realize he's making a mistake now.

The han dynasty had to endure decades of humiliation to the Xiongnu coz it was weak at the time. But in the end, the Xiongnu was wiped out from the history books while the Han dynasty's legacy lived on.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

to the contrary, i think the CPC's resolve has strengthened for a few reasons:

1. Reminiscent of Bismarck, Xi wants this to cement his legacy. it is more than just to have his name in the books, but more so to secure his reforms. he undoubtedly knows that after him the new party leadership can overturn his reforms as quickly as Deng overturned that of Mao. one way to protect at least some of the reforms is to elevate his own status to an unprecedented level, with a historical reunification by peaceful means or by arm. so Taiwan is important in and of itself yes, but for Xi there is an added dimension of legitimizing his efforts of transforming the party beyond reproach. the first military victory for China in 30 years would certainly make him stand out.

No, a lot of reforms and the likes that Xi has initiated isn't just 'his will' or the likes. It's the party that is behind a lot, and much of it would not be overturned by a successor.

Could go far more into stuff, but too lazy, but all in all, you really don't know much about the China's government/party/leadership.

2. the party has invested heavily in the military. you simply don't spend this much preparing for war if you don't have one in mind. this is not to say that the party leadership wants a war or is looking for one, but it is an indication that they think one is coming and do not intend on avoiding it. before 2010 I think the party had little appetite for AR, but the balance of power has shifted since then and it is apparent today that this goal is actually within grasp. not saying that it is a cakewalk but it is definitely within their capabilities.

No.
Investment in military has been stable at around 5.5% of government expenses for the last 20ish years (and about ~1.5% of gdp).

3. while some members of the party have personal interests that would be harmed in case of AR, more of the party's interested would be served by AR. semantics aside, taking Taiwan is like annexing a small, moderately wealthy country. if we talk purely in economic terms, there is a lot of wealth on that island, a lot of money to be made. personally I think that so long as AR does not devolve into full scale pacific war with the US, it will benefit China economically. although war is expensive, but much of that expense had already been rendered in the past three decades of military build up. taking the island is more of a return on those investments.

Not really.
First of all, you underestimate the potential costs of AR, and no, it isn't only for some wealthy/few individual members. And second, a lot of the wealth on Taiwan would likely be used/redistributed to people on Taiwan (to more quickly and less 'painfully' get control and reign over Taiwan).

4. AR will allow the CPC to reset some of the inefficiencies that have built up in its system, and reinvigorate the party and the state bureaucracy, we have seen this at play during covid. in case of a quick victory, the party will come out in a much stronger position. not only will they have boosted their legitimacy, they would have also expanded control over the public and private sector through the mobilization process. just like covid, it is also a test for the party apparatus, where the underperformers are flushed out and overachievers are promoted.

Ehhh...
Maybe, don't have much to comment about this though.

based on the four points above, i think the party leadership is definitely looking seriously at making substantial moves towards reunification. the example to follow here is Bismarck, a methodical and controlled approach, with a decisive blow dealt at a time of his choosing, rather than passively waiting for the other side to cross some sort of red line.

The party and government has their own plans and thoughts on how to resolve the 'Taiwan problem', whether that be peacefully or militarily.

(Moreover, it will 100% happen and also before 2035, in fact, probably even before 2030).

 

[Randomuser]

No, a lot of reforms and the likes that Xi has initiated isn't just 'his will' or the likes. It's the party that is behind a lot, and much of it would not be overturned by a successor.

Could go far more into stuff, but too lazy, but all in all, you really don't know much about the China's government/party/leadership.

No.
Investment in military has been stable at around 5.5% of government expenses for the last 20ish years (and about ~1.5% of gdp).

Not really.
First of all, you underestimate the potential costs of AR, and no, it isn't only for some wealthy/few individual members. And second, a lot of the wealth on Taiwan would likely be used/redistributed to people on Taiwan (to more quickly and less 'painfully' get control and reign over Taiwan).

Ehhh...
Maybe, don't have much to comment about this though.

The party and government has their own plans and thoughts on how to resolve the 'Taiwan problem', whether that be peacefully or militarily.

(Moreover, it will 100% happen and also before 2035, in fact, probably even before 2030).

Ironically western media deifies Xi more than Chinese media. Notice how it always goes Xi this Xi that. Xi said this. Xi is increasing his "grip" on xxx. As if Xi is somehow omnipotent and there are no other people in the party. Which is funny coz how then did Xi get these ideas from Wang Hunning then? That guy shouldn't even exist since clearly everything is from Xi's mind.

Meanhile on Chinese media while they do broadcast Xi's important messages, you would notice they do it for the highest level stuff. For the other stuff , you have your various representatives to speak for it. In other words, other people outside Xi do in fact matter depending on what area concerns you.

Ask the average "China watcher" to name 5 important figures from the party on spot and see what he comes up with. Anyone who is serious about the government would know know at least that amount since they will affect the area he's concerned about.

I would argue westeners are more obsessed about Xi than even Chinese citizens since that's all they have been told according to their media. No other person outside him exists.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

Ironically western media deifies Xi more than Chinese media. Notice how it always go Xi this Xi that. As if Xi is somehow omnipotent and there are no other people in the party. Which is funny coz how then did Xi get these ideas from Wang Hunning then? That guy shouldn't even exist.

Meanhile on Chinese media while they do broadcast Xi's important messages, you would notice they do it for the highest level stuff. For the other stuff , you have your various representatives to speak for it. In other words, other people outside Xi do in fact matter depending on what area concerns you.

Ask the average "China watcher" to name 5 important figures from the party on spot and see what he comes up with. Anyone who is serious about the government would know know at least that amount since they will affect the area he's concerned about.

Common practice of western media.

Moreover, it's not only at foreign or enemy countries, but also to their allies and themselves.

(The act of putting the head of a government in the spotlight and make it as if he is the sole decision maker/no one else has participated in decisions).

Has various 'perks', such as having one certain person they can blame (especially domestically, they can say a person stepped down, and that person was responsible/to blame for xxx), or give their viewers the feeling that the leader is a 'dictator' etc.

 

[drowingfish]

No, a lot of reforms and the likes that Xi has initiated isn't just 'his will' or the likes. It's the party that is behind a lot, and much of it would not be overturned by a successor.

Could go far more into stuff, but too lazy, but all in all, you really don't know much about the China's government/party/leadership.

No.
Investment in military has been stable at around 5.5% of government expenses for the last 20ish years (and about ~1.5% of gdp).

Not really.
First of all, you underestimate the potential costs of AR, and no, it isn't only for some wealthy/few individual members. And second, a lot of the wealth on Taiwan would likely be used/redistributed to people on Taiwan (to more quickly and less 'painfully' get control and reign over Taiwan).

Ehhh...
Maybe, don't have much to comment about this though.

The party and government has their own plans and thoughts on how to resolve the 'Taiwan problem', whether that be peacefully or militarily.

(Moreover, it will 100% happen and also before 2035, in fact, probably even before 2030).

it appears that you believe you are quite knowledgeable in "Chinese politics" for some reason. What is needed to understand this stuff is not just reading some news articles and wikipedia pages, it is actual life experience. ever held a supervisory role in a large, centralized organization? the will of the leader matters a lot when he is in power. certainly others within the organization will have to buy in in order for it to work, but generally you need a strong leader who is invested in the cause for the rest to really work towards it. I have seen this work out in real life.

by your argument, no one's policies should get overturned because it is the consensus of the party, but this is simply not true. we have seen stalin overturning lenin with socialism in one country, kruschev overturned stalin with the secret report, then overturned again by brezhnev, then again by gorbachev. the CPC has also oscillated on its policies from one leader to another. you can argue all day that CPC leader's policies would not be overturned, but the fact is the last two prominent CPC leaders were all very much concerned with sustaining their legacies. Mao got rid of Liu because he saw what kruschev did to stalin, Deng almost got rid of Jiang for wavering on reform, and sidelined Li Peng in favour of Zhu. facts seem to not align with what you said there.

 

[Biscuits]

Taiwan is already independent.

Then why does US try to invade China through it? They would be satisfied with the status quo, if China couldn't defend Taiwan...

 

[TK3600]

Ironically western media deifies Xi more than Chinese media. Notice how it always goes Xi this Xi that. Xi said this. Xi is increasing his "grip" on xxx. As if Xi is somehow omnipotent and there are no other people in the party. Which is funny coz how then did Xi get these ideas from Wang Hunning then? That guy shouldn't even exist since clearly everything is from Xi's mind.

Meanhile on Chinese media while they do broadcast Xi's important messages, you would notice they do it for the highest level stuff. For the other stuff , you have your various representatives to speak for it. In other words, other people outside Xi do in fact matter depending on what area concerns you.

Ask the average "China watcher" to name 5 important figures from the party on spot and see what he comes up with. Anyone who is serious about the government would know know at least that amount since they will affect the area he's concerned about.

I would argue westeners are more obsessed about Xi than even Chinese citizens since that's all they have been told according to their media. No other person outside him exists.

It is more of a culture thing. They apply same to themselves. Ask them to name their own government cabinets and they cant. Perhaps it came from religion where they attach all meaning to one representative(the monothiest god or its single representative).

 

[Michaelsinodef]

it appears that you believe you are quite knowledgeable in "Chinese politics" for some reason. What is needed to understand this stuff is not just reading some news articles and wikipedia pages, it is actual life experience. ever held a supervisory role in a large, centralized organization? the will of the leader matters a lot when he is in power. certainly others within the organization will have to buy in in order for it to work, but generally you need a strong leader who is invested in the cause for the rest to really work towards it. I have seen this work out in real life.

by your argument, no one's policies should get overturned because it is the consensus of the party, but this is simply not true. we have seen stalin overturning lenin with socialism in one country, kruschev overturned stalin with the secret report, then overturned again by brezhnev, then again by gorbachev. the CPC has also oscillated on its policies from one leader to another. you can argue all day that CPC leader's policies would not be overturned, but the fact is the last two prominent CPC leaders were all very much concerned with sustaining their legacies. Mao got rid of Liu because he saw what kruschev did to stalin, Deng almost got rid of Jiang for wavering on reform, and sidelined Li Peng in favour of Zhu. facts seem to not align with what you said there.

No, I don't see myself as being very knowledge in Chinese politics.

But just what I'm able to glean, already tells me that you very much don't (being able to judge, say if a game is good/fun is much easier than making a good/fun game afterall).