I don't think a Crimea strategy is anywhere close to realistic for US, nothing they have done negates or degrades the massive defenses that the PLA has there.
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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100% my point.
Let the US train the TW forces, it's not like the US has any recent and real experience with fighting a peer force or anything remotely close to the level of PLA, besides I'm sure the PLA has informants in the TW forces to gather intel.
antiterror13
Brigadier
3 New Zealand soldiers that I know of were in Taiwan too last month, for holiday
Maybe they never cared about it and just thought it was an easy grift get people to give them money willingly. Dumb politicians actually believe their words. Smart ones don't believe a single word but can get millions to believe it and give them money and power for it. And say thank you for it too.There is something that really bothers me about the Taiwan situation after this election.
And, no, not that I think a war is going breakout.
Disclaimer, I rarely follow mainland China and Taiwan related news, because it is boring. Besides, have no connection to that place, so that is someone else's problem if Taiwan gets invaded by PLA.
It seems kind of apparent, that what the CCP leadership is saying about this new guy, Lai, makes him no different than someone like Lee Denghui.
But that is a long time between these two separatists.
Does not seem to me that the separatist cause has really advanced that much, in all this time. Even Biden has publicly said he as leader of the United States, does not support Taiwan independence, just yesterday, just like every US president before him.
There was a theory back in the day, why Lee Denghui was pushing for independence. The reasoning was that China military was still weak, and if Taiwan declared independence the Americans with a stronger military would back Taiwan in any war.
But time marched on, and that calculus has changed, because China has changed and PLA has changed. Along with PLAN and PLAAF.
In short, we have another separatist leader in Taiwan, where the chances of declaring independence is even more remote, than the chances were in the past.
How did the Taiwan separatist movement arrive at such a dead end?
(This is assuming there will be no attempt at formal independence. After all, the previous leader was a separatist too. Also, Biden did not say go for it.)
Is Tai Du some elaborate and weird troll job at this point in time?
Who knows?
Tai Du is not really going for or campaigning for independence, they are just playing games. This is a serious matter. You don't play games here, yet that is what is going on. Playing games on these matters is a dead end.
But they are still playing games. And that is what bothers me. This is geo-political trolling for basically no effect or no outcome. Which is like, really stupid.
As for China, I think we know what they are going to do, which is increase the grey zone activities, and work on some things to weaken Taiwan some more.
Tsai, and Lai, play games, while the politburo gets on with it, the affairs of state.
That is why I think this Tai Du has reach some sort of bizarre dead end, where the only tangible result at the moment, is the trolling.
Lai already said we don't declare independence. We are already in practice one so we don't need to make any real changes to upset the status quo. I'm surprised he's not getting called out more for that copout considering how he was supposed to be more hardcore than Tsai. I guess once he actually gets a taste of real power, he remembered that he was here for it not for words that are for the idiots voters to eat up.
Also note that the USA has lost a lot of weapons due to the war in Ukraine being a massive drain on them, to the point where they have to take weapons from Japan and South Korea along with trying to steal the Russian assets just to keep that fight going. If the USA cannot keep up there stockpile right now, then how can they arm Taiwan to the point where they can actually fight China on an even standing. They needed eight years of training and weapon stockpiling for Ukraine only for all that effort to be blasted into the ground by Russia in only 2 years worth of fighting and with much resources from all over the western world to boot.
For them to start something in Taiwan requires lots of training and lets face it, at least the Ukrainians are willing to fight to the death in the early stages of the fighting until its 3rd mobilization using woman and children to fight, nothing I can see indicates that a typical Taiwanese is any where near that brave, nor do they have the infrastructure to really put up a fight with a strong supply line to provide Taiwan with the endless weapons it needs to fight and keep in mind that China would much rather blow the leadership in Taiwan up to end the fight quickly or even do a blockade of Taiwan to immediately stave the island of resources whilst preventing any helpers from coming to save Taiwan. The USA is out of time and mostly out of the needed resources to really take the fight to China because simply put, look at how much is being wasted in Ukraine and Israel already
Just fly the PRC flag, change to Chinese ship name, and make the crew members recite Xi Jinping thoughts for three hours a day.
antiterror13
Brigadier
Another way of expressing my rant above, is that Taiwan under the DPP has adopted a brat strategy.
A brat strategy, behaving without seriousness like a brat, is not strategy.
Being a brat is an attitude.
That is why Biden said what he said. No, the United States does not support independence.
Now, we are all old enough and mature enough, to know that deep down, we cannot expect any attitude adjustments to this issue.
Just more trolling.
The US would just change the wording 180 in no time, so what Biden said "The United States does not support independence" means nothing ..... they could simply say we don't support it but won't stop it
So the main thing is China has to be stronger every day and ready with the assumption that the US will intervene and go for a war (even highly unlikely)