It doesn't necessarily mean anything, could just be opsec.
Yuan Class AIP & Kilo Submarine Thread
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
It doesn't necessarily mean anything, could just be opsec.
Every pic of Yuan in recent years is of this sail and fin. The last time I remember seeing that Wuhan shipyard, there were one new build being fitted and three subs brought in for 'maintenance'. The sail and the fin are non structural parts. This makes it easy to modify them. It's the old square sail type that has disappeared.
The construction halls at Wuchang were recently expanded though, and we saw the 'Olympics class' last year as well. I suspect they're just catching up with their covid order backlog of 4xHangor + 1xS26T + whatever PLAN has ordered.
Oh I see my apologies. I always assumed that boat to be a sort of a try out pair meant to weed out any issues before mass production sets in.
I find it very unlikely that their SSN production is or will soon be at a rate that they would be able to adequately replace old and obsolete SSKs while also maintaining the overall submarine fleet size that they want.
Personally I think they're going to continue building new SSKs for some years yet, to replace old SSKs, while new SSNs replace older SSNs while also growing the SSN fleet and thus the overall submarine fleet size.
China still has around 30 SSKs that were built in the 1990s and the early-2000s (035s, 039s, Kilos and improved Kilos) in the PLAN, with most of the 035s already in reserve.
These old SSKs with no AIP and less advanced stealth features and underwater cruising abilities will become easy preys for American and Japanese ASW forces as soon as they venture beyond the region with reliable surface and aerial coverage by the PLAN and PLAAF - which doesn't really extend beyond the FIC, to be honest. Anywhere beyond the Korea Strait to the north and anywhere beyond the Nansha Islands to the south is pretty much a solid no-go for these boats too.
These old undersea boats would then be just as good as useless.
It would be preferrable for China to maintain a medium-sized fleet of advanced and highly capable SSKs for (at the very least) home-front defense within the FIC Belt and perhaps in the Sea of Japan too, which means that those older SSKs have to be replaced. There are a lot of 039C/D SSKs that need to be built in order to achieve that.
Though, on the other hand, Wuchang can't be kept doing very little work if and once the PLAN has decisively pivoted towards operating a majority nuclear-powered underwater fleet in the future.
I'm genuinely curious as to whether Wuchang Shipyard is capable of/will be capable of building nuclear-powered submarines as well... Perhaps Wuchang could be relegated to build those "mini-nuke" subs, while Huludao focuses on building larger fleet SS(G)Ns and SSBNs.
If Wuchang can join China's underwater nuclear fleet buildup effort, it is feasible for reducing Huludao's burden. In the meantime, Wuchang can also serve as a backup naval yard for nuclear-powered submarine construction, in case Huludao is rendered inoperable due to enemy attacks during wartime.
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antiterror13
Brigadier
I think China will continue build more modern SSK and at the same time also building SSN and SSBN.
SSK still extremely useful in FIC and the neighbours (apart from Japan and USA)
Remember that SSK is a lot cheaper to build and operate .. however I'd imagine the new SSK will be with newest battery pack (Lithium or Natrium), China is the king with long shot in battery technology and production in the world