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Rutim

Banned Idiot
Just wondering what would have happend if Japan didn't surrender probably would have ended up like Korea, a Soviet controlled North and Allied control South what a disaster that would have been

Japan had a lucky escape
US didn't want to attack Japanese main islands and Soviets would be happy to do that? Japanese 'welcomed' them on Shumshu in the last days of the war and it was pretty cold reception for Soviets even though Japanese Army troops were starting the disarmament at the time and the response was nowhere close in intensity compared to Japanese-US battles on the Pacific.

I assume that it would be a complete bloodbath and they didn't do that for the same reason US didn't like the idea of taking over Japanese Islands.
 

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
US didn't want to attack Japanese main islands and Soviets would be happy to do that? Japanese 'welcomed' them on Shumshu in the last days of the war and it was pretty cold reception for Soviets even though Japanese Army troops were starting the disarmament at the time and the response was nowhere close in intensity compared to Japanese-US battles on the Pacific.

I assume that it would be a complete bloodbath and they didn't do that for the same reason US didn't like the idea of taking over Japanese Islands.

Differance is that much of the Japanese resistance was focused in the Pacific and not in the Northern areas which is why Sakhalin and Kurils went so quickly to the Soviets on the other land Iwo Jima and Okinawa well we all know the story there

If those two bombs were not dropped and operations Olympic went forward Soviet division was ready to land on Hokkaido Stalin even had the plans and locations signed off

Plus Truman was very sure to Stalin that Soviet must end the war, even after Japans surrender Soviets were pushing forward and still fighting the Japanese as late as 20th of August 1945

Two nukes had Stalin shocked and he knew Americans had the advantage with the nuclear bomb, nukes didnt only put end to Imperial Japan they also check mated the Soviets at the time even although for only a short while
 

chuck731

Banned Idiot
Re: World War II Historical/Startegy Discussionson

Problem was that Hilter split his attack force North army group went for Moscow and South army group went for the oil fields in Baku which basically meant that Germany never managed to muster all thier forces and concentrate them into one battle

Had Hitler thrown both army groups for one single unified objective to capture Moscow Germany probably would have taken Moscow

The split in Germany army groups weakens the flanks which were lightly guarded by Italians and Romanians diviisions which allowed the Soviets to out flank the Germans during thier counter attack

Stalingrad well what can I say, the city hat swallowed Hilters 6th army


Technically incorrect. Germans never went for Moscow at the same time as Baku. Moscow was the objective from sept - dec 1941, and Caucasus oil fields from June - nov 1942. So they never split their forces the way you described.

When Germans started the invasion of Russia the senior officers of Wehrmacht wanted to make Moscow at the center the primary objective for a napoleonic thrust right from the beginning. But hitler had a phobia for repeating the mistake of Napoleon, so he denigrated the importance of Moscow, and overruled the generals. He decided Leningrad in the north and Ukraine in the south should have been the main objectives. Leningrad in the north would help germany secure absolute and unchallenged control of Baltic and safeguard German's access to Swedish iron ore supply. Ukraine in the south would give Germany the rich agriculture black earth territory and secure Romanian oil fields from any possible attack from the Soviet Union. Hitler had thought the attainment of these objectives would also destroy the soviet army and win the war with Russia.

When soviet armies remain on the field and able to fight even after the Germans have capture Kiev and surrounded Leningrad, hitler belatedly realized the importance of Moscow as the center of soviet transportation, communication, government, and armament industry. So he shifted his objective to Moscow in the center late in the game, too late to avoid autumn rain and winter freeze. Too late to capture Moscow.

The amount of damage and losses the german army suffered in all of 1941 and winter/spring of 1942 was greater than Germany's ability to make good before end of 1942. So when summer champaign season started in 1942, german army was not strong enough to either make another concentrated assault on Moscow in the center, where the bulk of soviet army is now concentrated, or to make simultaneous attacks in both north and south, as it had done in 1941. So the Hitler chose to strike to the south in the hope of capturing Caucasus oil fields to the east of Don.

But here again he overestimated how effectively the Wehrmacht could operate with such long exposed flanks, and underestimate how much strength Soviet Union could deploy to hit back when the Germans reached their maximum extension in the southern offensive. The result was Stalingrad.

The only time during the entire war between Germany and Russia where the Germans commanded a absolute superiority in resources in a strategic way was at the beginning of operation typhoon, but the superior german forces was unprepared for the imminent arrival of autumn rain and winter snow. Further more the quantitatively superior german forces was by this time very worn out and tired, and even though it was tactically still more skilled than the best Russian forces, the combined effects of exhaustion of men and equipment, and the unsuitability of equipment means the german army was not a match for the Russian army defending Moscow.
 
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Lezt

Junior Member
Differance is that much of the Japanese resistance was focused in the Pacific and not in the Northern areas which is why Sakhalin and Kurils went so quickly to the Soviets on the other land Iwo Jima and Okinawa well we all know the story there

If those two bombs were not dropped and operations Olympic went forward Soviet division was ready to land on Hokkaido Stalin even had the plans and locations signed off

Plus Truman was very sure to Stalin that Soviet must end the war, even after Japans surrender Soviets were pushing forward and still fighting the Japanese as late as 20th of August 1945

Two nukes had Stalin shocked and he knew Americans had the advantage with the nuclear bomb, nukes didnt only put end to Imperial Japan they also check mated the Soviets at the time even although for only a short while

During the Yalta conference, the USSR promised to join the war on Japan 3 months after victory in Europe. VE day is May 7th,
Soviet invasion of Japan is August 9th, which is practically 3 months after VE day.

Did Japan surrender due to the Atomic Bomb? that is Western canon, but is hotly debated which arguments are presented here:
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This is also a reason why Mao never really feared the nuclear bomb - well founded or not is debatable.
 
Re: World War II Historical/Startegy Discussionson

I read this post with pleasure, have a couple of loose comments:

...

When Germans started the invasion of Russia the senior officers of Wehrmacht wanted to make Moscow at the center the primary objective for a napoleonic thrust right from the beginning. ...

As far as I know, the Arkhangelsk-Astrakhan line was drawn soon after Molotov had left Berlin, i.e., in 1940 (not 1941).

...
The amount of damage and losses the german army suffered in all of 1941 and winter/spring of 1942 was greater than Germany's ability to make good before end of 1942. ...

Most recently I read the opposite hold for the Soviet army -- it was bigger (both in the number of soldiers and weaponry) in the end of 1941 than on July 22 -- but I'm not saying I believe this. Do you?

...
But here again he underestimated how effectively the Wehrmacht could operate with such long exposed flanks, and much strength Soviet Union could deploy to hit back when the Germans reached their maximum extension in the southern offensive. The result was Stalingrad.
...

And now something ever more wild :) Assuming the German southern offensive of 1942 (Fall Blau) as it happened: If the Soviets had not concentrated on Stalingrad the way they did, but instead they had attacked the Army Group B from Astrakhan area, they could have cut out even bigger German forces (I only read this) ... what do you think?
 

delft

Brigadier
The WWII submarine commander Edward Latimer Beach, Jr (
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. ) wrote in his book Submarine! (1952) that the losses of the Japanese merchant marine were so large that Japan's industry couldn't be supplied with the necessary raw materials to maintain production of war materials. But for the threat against the Soviet Union after the war the nuclear bomb story was much better.

The production of modern aircraft and tanks in the Soviet Union was only beginning in 1941. As part of the August 1939 treaty both countries would show the other their fighter and tank production. As a first step the Soviet Union showed its MiG and Yak fighter production and Germany showed the production of its Mk.IV tanks. I read that the Russians concluded that the Germans were not showing the production of their most modern tank because what they were shown was so much inferior to their own T34. So the Germans knew that the Soviet aircraft production was low and they didn't know about the tanks. And of course production increased dramatically after the German invasion.
 

chuck731

Banned Idiot
The production of modern aircraft and tanks in the Soviet Union was only beginning in 1941. .

That is patently untrue. Soviet Union led the world in modern combat aircraft as well as tank development and production for much of 1930s. The Polikarpov I-16 was the first fully modern (stress skin monocoque, cantilever monoplane wings, retractable landing gear, nearly or fully enclosed cockpit) fighter to be developed and to be mass produced in the world. Way before T-34 Soviet tanks such as BT-7 were already fully competitive with the best in the world.

As part of the August 1939 treaty both countries would show the other their fighter and tank production. As a first step the Soviet Union showed its MiG and Yak fighter production and Germany showed the production of its Mk.IV tanks. I read that the Russians concluded that the Germans were not showing the production of their most modern tank because what they were shown was so much inferior to their own T34. So the Germans knew that the Soviet aircraft production was low and they didn't know about the tanks. And of course production increased dramatically after the German invasion.

The fact that Germany enjoyed superiority in modern combat aircraft does not imply Soviet Union was comprehensively behind. The nature of military aircraft life cycle is such that competitors trade advantages back and forth. When a competitive power first mass deploy a new fighter, that fighter would usually enjoy significant superiority over those of all its competitors. But over the life cycle of that fighter, the enemy would catch up, and deploy their own more competitive fighters. tThat Germany enjoyed qualitative edge in fighters during the first part of WWII was not because German aircraft inductry was superior to those of France, England or USSR. It had to do with the fact that the war fortuitously started at a time when aircraft production life cycle of the different countries so happen to be at such respective places that gave Germany a 2-3 year of window of superiority in this game at the right moment.

France and the USSR decided to fix the type of fighter upon which to hang their arms build up earlier than Germany, hence they hung their fates on an earlier generation of fighters, including the afore mentioned, and at its inception world leading and world beating polikarpov I-16.

Germany hung her fate on a later generation of fighters, such as Bf-109, that put Germany in good stead during the first half of the war. But the US and Britain was able to do so even later than Germany, with Spitfire and Mustang. Hence by second half of the war it was relatively easier for Britain and US to maintain superiority of the balk of their fighter fleets, because the basic designs of the bulk of their fighter fleets were of a more recent vintage, while Germany must struggle to field relatively small number of newer fighters while saddled with large numbers of increasingly uncompetitive derivatives of Bf-109 fighters.

It is often overlooked that a big part of the reasons for Germany spectacular success during first years of World War II had nothing to do with any long lasting superiority of German military training, doctrine, leadership, or equipment. It had to do with the war fortuitously came to Germany, against Hitler's designs, at a time when Germany was at the start of a 2-3 year window, not clearly appreciated a priori even in Germany, when Germany enjoyed advatnage in key equipment and doctrines. To a substantial degree, Germany sleepwalked into its early successes in WWII.

This kind of fortuitous leap frogging often has a lot more impact on the outcome of war between peer competitors than careful assidious long term military preparation.
 
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Lezt

Junior Member
That is patently untrue. Soviet Union led the world in modern combat aircraft as well as tank development and production for much of 1930s. The Polikarpov I-16 was the first fully modern (stress skin monocoque, cantilever monoplane wings, retractable landing gear, nearly or fully enclosed cockpit) fighter to be developed and to be mass produced in the world. Way before T-34 Soviet tanks such as BT-7 were already fully competitive with the best in the world.
This is very debatable. the I-16 and T34 had no radios, egronomics was bad (but acceptable to Russian farm boys), The I-16 have very simple controls surfaces - nothing of fancy ailerons, manual landing gears, artificial horizons were counter intuitive. The BT had their fare share of issues too, very prone to break down, insufficient armor to resist machine gun fire.. There is a reason why the T-26 soldier on, while the BT did not. They are advanced in their own ways, but hardly world beating.
The fact that Germany enjoyed superiority in modern combat aircraft does not imply Soviet Union was comprehensively behind. The nature of military aircraft life cycle is such that competitors trade advantages back and forth. When a competitive power first mass deploy a new fighter, that fighter would usually enjoy significant superiority over those of all its competitors. But over the life cycle of that fighter, the enemy would catch up, and deploy their own more competitive fighters. tThat Germany enjoyed qualitative edge in fighters during the first part of WWII was not because German aircraft inductry was superior to those of France, England or USSR. It had to do with the fact that the war fortuitously started at a time when aircraft production life cycle of the different countries so happen to be at such respective places that gave Germany a 2-3 year of window of superiority in this game at the right moment.

France and the USSR decided to fix the type of fighter upon which to hang their arms build up earlier than Germany, hence they hung their fates on an earlier generation of fighters, including the afore mentioned, and at its inception world leading and world beating polikarpov I-16.

Germany hung her fate on a later generation of fighters, such as Bf-109, that put Germany in good stead during the first half of the war. But the US and Britain was able to do so even later than Germany, with Spitfire and Mustang. Hence by second half of the war it was relatively easier for Britain and US to maintain superiority of the balk of their fighter fleets, because the basic designs of the bulk of their fighter fleets were of a more recent vintage, while Germany must struggle to field relatively small number of newer fighters while saddled with large numbers of increasingly uncompetitive derivatives of Bf-109 fighters.

It is often overlooked that a big part of the reasons for Germany spectacular success during first years of World War II had nothing to do with any long lasting superiority of German military training, doctrine, leadership, or equipment. It had to do with the war fortuitously came to Germany, against Hitler's designs, at a time when Germany was at the start of a 2-3 year window, not clearly appreciated a priori even in Germany, when Germany enjoyed advatnage in key equipment and doctrines. To a substantial degree, Germany sleepwalked into its early successes in WWII.

This kind of fortuitous leap frogging often has a lot more impact on the outcome of war between peer competitors than careful assidious long term military preparation.

I think, your statement is too romantic of hindsight. No one knew when war would start, there isn't a means to bank on a technology. Had events unfolded differently, lets say war began when the Z-plan was complete, or if France + UK pre struck Germany in... 1936; the war could be very different.

The german air force never had issues with new fighter aircraft supply, but for replacement pilots. The many obsolete renditions of the BF109 had mostly been expended during the part of the war where they were not obsolete. Germany made ~7500 FW190 + ~13,000 ME109 in 1944; both of which are able to match the latest P51, Spitfire, and any other allied fighters pitted against them.

The fact that these antagonist fighters first flew at around the same time: FW190: June 1939, BF109: May 1935 P51: Sept 1940, Spitfire March 1936, Hurricane November 1935, Dewoitine D.520 October 1938, A6M March 1939, Ki43 Jan 1939, wildcat Feb 1940; P47 May 1941, P40 Oct 1938, Typhoon Feb 1940.

What I am trying to illustrate is, there isn't a distinct age gap between the fighters; and all of these fighters served well into the war with each other competitively through their successive marks (maybe less so the A6M, but the A7M was supposed to step up to the job, but what can you say when an earthquake destroys the factory?); may it be a name change like wildcat to hellcat or ki43 to ki84, Typhoon -> tempest; they are still the same basic air frame.
 

delft

Brigadier
I think the German command, including Hitler, were aware that Z-plan was not quite compatible with the development of Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe. But if the conquest of European countries had been even more successful than it was and the High Command hadn't been afraid that the Soviet Union would have its new fighters in full production by 1942 those Z-plan ships would have been well in time to protect the greater Germany. Quite likely the British and French government would have calculated similarly in 1939. That's then why they reacted to the invasion of Poland as they did ( and Poland wasn't noticeably democratic ) while they sacrificed the parliamentary democracy Czechoslovakia a year earlier.
And whatever the demerits of T-34 it was a generation better than the German tanks until the Tiger of late 1942 and the Panther of 1943, both of which didn't reach adequate production rates so the Mk.IV and even Mk.III remained in production.
Btw most tanks in the armies that defeated France were still Mk.II's which were to be of no value on the Eastern Front.
 

Lezt

Junior Member
I think the German command, including Hitler, were aware that Z-plan was not quite compatible with the development of Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe. But if the conquest of European countries had been even more successful than it was and the High Command hadn't been afraid that the Soviet Union would have its new fighters in full production by 1942 those Z-plan ships would have been well in time to protect the greater Germany. Quite likely the British and French government would have calculated similarly in 1939. That's then why they reacted to the invasion of Poland as they did ( and Poland wasn't noticeably democratic ) while they sacrificed the parliamentary democracy Czechoslovakia a year earlier.
And whatever the demerits of T-34 it was a generation better than the German tanks until the Tiger of late 1942 and the Panther of 1943, both of which didn't reach adequate production rates so the Mk.IV and even Mk.III remained in production.
Btw most tanks in the armies that defeated France were still Mk.II's which were to be of no value on the Eastern Front.

Re: the merits of the T34, it is a good tank, it is one of my favorite tanks of WW2, but I won't say that it is one generation ahead of the german tanks it faced.

The german army was focused on two types of tanks, a battle tank and a support tank which was later supplemented by a breakthrough tank which was never used for a break through). The Panzer III was the battle tank and the Panzer IV was the support tank.

As such, the panzer III was designed with torsion bar suspension, great speed and agility; and a maximum performance of 5 hours/day; where as the support Panzer IV used leaf springs and smaller road wheels. There were delimiting factors that were fixed in subsequent models of the T34 such as poor situation awareness, overworked commander, No radio, insufficient turret armor, poor dispersion of the L11 gun, slow rate of fire for the L11 gun and so on.

To read into the tank production is also to understand the politics in Germany at the time. Herschel had a monopoly on turret design and Rheinmetall the gun. Rheinmetall had the 5cm L60 ready in 1937 which could penetrate the turret of a T34 to 1000m, and the upper front plate at 500m with regular ammunition. Yet, Herschel refused to fit the L60 into the turret and claim that it cant be done until Rheinmetall obtained one and fitted one in to prove a point.

This is also true for the 75mm L43, if you can fit a 75mm L24 into the turret, there is no reason why it cannot be done with the 75mm L43. The Pz III 's turret ring of 1530mm is smaller than the 1680mm on the Pz IV and is often quoted as the reason why the L43 cannot be mounted (L43, L48 use the same shell casing which is larger than the L24). But here is the thing, the Churchill with the 75mm gun had a turret ring size of 1394.225mm... Politics....

But anyhow, a T34/76 with the F34 can reliably kill a PzIII of 1942 at around 500m, A PzIII of the same era can kill a T34 at the same range... HE on the other hand... favors the larger barrel. A 75mm L43 armed PzIV can reliably kill a T34 out at 1000m, while the 75mm/48 to 1500m. Thus therefore, the soviets answered with the T34/85 with the D5T to reduce the German invulnerability zone. Given combat range is rarely over 700m and kills over 1500m makes the headlines... it is rather moot.

So my point is, the T34 is not that much more advanced than its peers and the Tiger is not really needed as an equalizer.
 
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