World non-renewable energy discussion

not only is gasoline demand weakening China, but the refineries can't find demand abroad either.


looks like we are going to hit 38 bcm this year along POS. Adding in that far east pipeline, we will have 10 bcm more by 2027

The cat is out of the bag. Bloomberg has admitted that America is the big winner of sanctioning Russian energy.

Can China's clean energy beat this over next 15 to 20 years?

The US are building a lot of liquefaction facilities, but they are going to have a hard time getting the gas to feed them.
A lot of the gas is stranded in shale deposits and is not economic to recover.
Qatar is a way bigger competitor to Russian gas than the US.

gelgoog said:

The US are building a lot of liquefaction facilities, but they are going to have a hard time getting the gas to feed them.
A lot of the gas is stranded in shale deposits and is not economic to recover.
Qatar is a way bigger competitor to Russian gas than the US.

Click to expand...

That's why US is trying to get the Europeans to only buy from them.

China imported 91% of all Iranian crude export in 2023.

All of which probably traded in RMB.

We will see how much domestic production and pipeline gas import trend up over the next few years, but I think there is a good chance they are overbuilding LNG terminals around China.

more on that. just watch Iranian oil to China explode in the past year. All that is in RMB.


Saudi crude export to China is not competitive unless it's priced in RMB

Another thing to think about in China's decarbonization is its relative lateness in adopting NG. If we look at domestic production

It's at 246 BCM. I think Pipeline medium term will certainly increase to 50 BCM out of Turkmenistan & 48 BCM out of Russia and another 12 BCM out of Myanmar. If domestic increase to 300 BCM, hopefully they can cut down LNG intake a little bit.

Vulnerability to NG isn't as bad as crude. So, it's a huge win for HDTs to go from diesel to CNG. Also, it helps to push out all the foreign truck makers.

But Chinese customs data shows actual crude oil imports from January to August by volume were down 3 per cent from a year earlier. Pipeline gas and LNG imports by volume rose 12 per cent per cent in the same period.

Click to expand...

In July, China’s diesel demand fell almost 6 per cent from a year earlier to 3.5mn barrels a day, Opec said, adding that “increasing penetration of LNG trucks and electric vehicles [were] likely to weigh on diesel and gasoline demand going forward”.

Click to expand...

Also German automakers losing out in this diesel to CNG transition

This summer, the German company wrote off its 50 per cent stake in its Chinese joint venture with state-owned Foton Motor, which builds and sells heavy-duty trucks. “Headquarters is far away — there is no demand for LNG engines in Europe,” said a person close to the company. “Developing one would cost millions and it’s hard to predict where the market is going

Click to expand...

Very important, Chinese NG price is lower than diesel price. It doesn't depend on LNG for supply

Wayne Fung, a logistics expert at CMB International, said Chinese truck buyers were choosing LNG over diesel because it was cheaper, currently by 23 per cent. Chinese LNG prices have remained low due to the country’s large domestic gas production and growing volumes of pipelined gas from Russia, Turkmenistan and Myanmar. China pays about $8 per million British thermal units for the pipelined gas, much less than for seaborne LNG imports, according to Financial Times estimates using government data.

Click to expand...

Says here that POS pipelines are fully complete in China now. Goes from heilongjiang all the way down to Yangtze River delta area. The 38 bcm every year can supply gas needs (I am assuming it’s referring to heating here) for 130m families. That’s a lot of people.

tphuang said:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Says here that POS pipelines are fully complete in China now. Goes from heilongjiang all the way down to Yangtze River delta area. The 38 bcm every year can supply gas needs (I am assuming it’s referring to heating here) for 130m families. That’s a lot of people.

Click to expand...

Is NG heating better than the heating from nuclear plant or electric heaters?