yes, this is definitely happening. This is just sales for this year so far, 126.7k in 7 months. Overall sales is 562.8k.
World non-renewable energy discussion
- Thread starter tphuang
- Start date
The charging time is key.
If we see 10-15min charging times (like with cars), then the size/cost of the battery matters much less
To put things in perspective.
China imported 24.8m ton of NG from Turkmenistan, 24.35mt from Russia, 24.16mt from Australia & 16.66mt from Qatar in 2023. Of which, 8.05mt from Russia were LNG & 16.30mt were from pipeline.
China also imported 3.4mt from Kazakhstan pipeline
Seems like this is China's policy of diversified energy import.
imo, quite silly to import LNG at this level when you can do pipeline.
Russia POS capacity should be going up. So should Turkmenistan & Kazakhstan in coming years, especially the former. We will see what happens with POS2 pipeline, but I think the investment China is putting into LNG infrastructure is going to be wasted. But they don't seem to mind that when it comes to improved negotiation position.
Something I have been thinking about is that these LNG shipments are just to build out the market a bit before doing the pipeline, in this way they can use some of the LNG revenue to build the pipeline.
The other thing is we just saw China injecting 30% H2 into NG pipelines, so you can have NG coming in from Russia in a pipeline, to which China adds 30% H2 anywhere along the Chinese route.
Pipeline gas is much cheaper to transport. It is as simple as that. You lose energy to liquefy gas into LNG and you lose energy by transporting it via ship. While it is expensive to build the pipelines the liquefaction and gasification facilities plus the ships used for LNG are even more expensive.
Power of Siberia exported 22.7 bcm to China in 2023. This is expected to rise to 38 bcm in 2025. There is another 10 bcm incoming from Sakhalin until the end of the decade. Plus it might be possible to further increase Power of Siberia pipeline pressure and add another 5 bcm/y of capacity. So the North-South gas route capacity should basically double.
Probably a reflection of the fact that initially China did not have that much developed of a high capacity gas pipeline industry and back then Russia was mostly investing gas sales to Europe which was their traditional client. It took a long time to develop the Turkmenistan, gas fields, pipelines plus the huge West-East pipelines inside China proper.
In the long term I expect both Line D from Turkmenistan and Power of Siberia 2 to be built. This will mean LNG imports from Australia will no longer be required and China will get much cheaper piped gas as a replacement. Gas consumption should also continue to increase in order to further decrease air pollution in China.
China needs to not depend on imported gas infrastructure though. For example at least some of the pipelines from Turkmenistan are using Rolls-Royce turbines for gas pumping from I read. This is a risk China is taking. There is no good reason to depend on imported gas turbines.
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It's pretty clear now that China's oil demand has peaked. Sure, more economic activity will drive petrochemical demand to increase, but EV adoption is only increasing. CNG truck sales is only increasing.