TerraN_EmpirE
Tyrant King
NO Superpowers!
Given the financial downturn and the fact that a number of companies are leaving China some returning too the states If this trend continues China may End up in a sharp decline Particularly if it's Aggressive nationalist Policies burn other powers.
. Japan is facing a real issue with it's aging population unless they can get new blood they may literally be the sick man of Asia.
In other word unless things get better in Africa, South America and the west Indies Expect Wars.
have time on your hands.Intel report sees U.S. losing superpower status by 2030
Doug Stanglin, USA TODAY
It predicts no country will have hegemonic power in a shift to "networks and coalitions in a multipolar world."
11:29AM EST December 10. 2012 - A report by the National Intelligence Council predicts that the United States will lose its superpower status by 2030, but that no country -- including China -- will be a hegemonic power.
Instead, the report says, power will shift to "networks and coalitions in a multipolar world."
The council, which wrote Global Trends 2030, was established in 1979. It supports the U.S. director of National Intelligence and is the intelligence community's center for long-term strategic analysis.
The council's intelligence officers are drawn from government, academia and the private sector.
FULL REPORT: Global Trends 2030
"The world of 2030 will be radically transformed from our world today," the report concludes. "By 2030, no country -- whether the U.S., China, or any other large country -- will be a hegemonic power."
The report also finds that the empowerment of individuals and a diffusion of power among states -- and from states -- to informal networks will have a "dramatic impact."
This development, the report finds, will largely reverse the historic rise of the West since 1750, "restoring Asia's weight in the global economy and ushering in a new era of 'democratization' at the international and domestic level."
The report further expects the rapid aging of the world population to continue as well as a growing demand on resources, which might lead to scarcities of food and water.
Among its assessment, the report looks at plausible worst-case and best-case scenarios over the next two decades.
In the former category, it sees the risk of interstate conflict increasing and the U.S. "draws inward and globalization stalls."
In the best-case scenario, China and the U.S. collaborate on a range of issues, leading to a broader global cooperation.
mega Trend 2: diffusion of power
The diffusion of power among countries will have a dramatic impact by 2030. Asia will have surpassed North America and Europe combined in terms of global power, based upon GDP, population size,military spending, and technological investment.China alone will probably have the largest economy,surpassing that of the United States a few years before 2030. In a tectonic shift, the health of the global economy increasingly will be linked to how well the developing world does—more so than the traditional West. In addition to China, India, and Brazil, regional players such as Colombia, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, and Turkey will become especially important to the global economy. Meanwhile, the economies of Europe, Japan, and Russia are likely to continue their slow relative declines.The shift in national power may be overshadowed by an even more fundamental shift in the
nature of power. Enabled by communications technologies,power will shift toward multifaceted and amorphous networks that will form to influence state and global actions. Those countries with some of the strongest fundamentals—GDP, population size, etc.—will not be able to punch their weight unless they also learn to operate in networks and coalitions in a multi-polar world.
Given the financial downturn and the fact that a number of companies are leaving China some returning too the states If this trend continues China may End up in a sharp decline Particularly if it's Aggressive nationalist Policies burn other powers.
. Japan is facing a real issue with it's aging population unless they can get new blood they may literally be the sick man of Asia.
Game-chanGer 3: poTenTIal forIncreased conflIcT
Historical trends during the past two decades show fewer major armed conflicts and, where conflicts remain, fewer civilian and military casualties than in previous decades. Maturing age structures in many developing countries point to continuing declines in intrastate conflict. We believe the disincentives will remain strong against great power conflict: too much would be at stake. Nevertheless, we need to be cautious about the prospects for further declines in the number and intensity of intrastate conflicts, and interstate conflict remains a possibility.Intrastate conflicts have gradually increased in countries with a mature overall population that contains a politically dissonant, youthful ethnic minority. Strife involving ethnic Kurds in Turkey, Shia in Lebanon, and Pattani Muslims in southern Thailand are examples of such situations. Looking forward, the potential for conflict to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to remain high even after some of the region’s countries graduate into a more intermediate age structure because of the probable large number of ethnic and tribal minorities that will remain more youthful than the overall population. Insufficient natural resources—such as water and arable land—in many of the same countries that will have disproportionate levels of young men increase the risks of intrastate conflict breaking out, particularly in Sub-Saharan African and South and East Asian countries, including China and India. A number of these countries—Afghanistan,Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Somalia—also have faltering governance institutions.Though by no means inevitable, the risks of interstate conflict are increasing owing to changes in the international system. The underpinnings of the post-Cold War equilibrium are beginning to shift.During the next 15-20 years, the US will be grappling with the degree to which it can continue to play the role of systemic guardian and guarantor of the global order. A declining US unwillingness and/or slipping capacity to serve as a global security provider would be a key factor contributing to instability, particularly it will need to become increasingly diversified. But the Middle East’s trajectory will depend on its political landscape. On the one hand, if the Islamic Republic maintains power in Iran and is able to develop nuclear weapons, the Middle East will face a highly unstable future. On the other hand, the emergence of moderate,democratic governments or a breakthrough agreement to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could have enormously positive consequences.South Asia faces a series of internal and external shocks during the next 15-20 years. Low growth,rising food prices, and energy shortages will pose stiff challenges to governance in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Afghanistan’s and Pakistan’s youth bulges are large—similar in size to those found in many African countries. When these youth bulges are combined with a slow-growing economy, they portend increased instability. India is in a better position, benefiting from higher growth, but it will still be challenged to find jobs for its large youth population. Inequality, lack of infrastructure, and education deficiencies are key weaknesses in India. The neighborhood has always had a profound influence on internal developments,increasing the sense of insecurity and bolstering military outlays. Conflict could erupt and spread under numerous scenarios. Conflicting strategic goals, widespread distrust, and the hedging strategies by all the parties will make it difficult for them to develop strong regional security framework. An increasingly multipolar
Asia
lacking a well-anchored regional security framework able to arbitrate and mitigate rising tensions would constitute one of the largest global threats. Fear of Chinese power, the likelihood of growing Chinese nationalism,and possible questions about the US remaining involved in the region will increase insecurities. An unstable Asia would cause large-scale damage to the global economy.Changing dynamics in other regions would also jeopardize global security.
Europe
has been a critical security provider, ensuring, for example, Central Europe’s integration into the “West” after the end o the Cold War. A more inward-focused and less capable Europe would provide a smaller stabilizing force for crises in neighboring regions. On the other hand,a Europe which overcomes its current intertwined political and economic crises could see its global role enhanced. Such a Europe could help to integrate its rapidly developing neighbors in the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Central Asia into the global economy and broader international system. A modernizing Russia could integrate itself into a wider international community; at the same time, a Russia which fails to build a more diversified economy and more liberal domestic order could increasingly pose a regional and global threat.Progress toward greater regional cohesion and integration in
Latin America
and
Sub-Saharan Africa
would promise increased stability in those regions and a reduced threat to global security.Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, Central America, and the Caribbean will remain vulnerable, nevertheless,to state failure through 2030, providing safe havens for both global criminal and terrorist networks and local insurgents.
In other word unless things get better in Africa, South America and the west Indies Expect Wars.
