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2. Taiwan launching missiles against Fujian does not factor into deterrence. For the past 40 years, China has focused on domestic development and saw a war as disruptive to this task. That still applies today
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Subs are most effective against enemy surface ships, but until the last few decades, China didn’t really have a surface fleet worth countering. Same deal with sea based trade.
China focused initially on subs over their surface fleet for the same reason why Taiwan wants subs now - they are most cost effective against a superior opfor surface fleet.
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Does not? Or you meant does? With the caveat that the PRC is more likely to use force if the ROC either pursues official independence and/or allies/submits itself to another country that would by default be hostile to the PRC.
I mean Taiwan being able to hit Chinese cities with missiles doesn't make much difference to the overall calculation on what China will do.
That applied in the past, and will in the future.
Except it does? Several hundreds or even thousands under threat if violence is used completely changes the equations. Just a few ROC missiles slipping through the shield could cause destruction on the scale of 9/11.
By that point, a thousand civilian dead doesn't make any difference.
Remember that there will be thousands already dead in the Chinese military, and also in the Taiwanese military.