So it's interesting when we see Mattis being very clear that he considers Superpower China a competitor rather than an enemy.
And that makes sense, because over the past 20 years, China consistently spent a modest 2% of GDP on the military because it didn't feel particularly under threat, whereas the USA spent an average of 4% of GDP.
But if China does start to think that the USA is treating China as an enemy, we would likely see a rapid increase in military spending.
Given that China has a GDP approaching 25 Trillion USD in PPP terms this year, an increase in military spending to 4% means an extra $500 Billion for the Chinese military every year. It also means China would be spending more on the military than the USA.
From the Chinese perspective, that money could be better spent elsewhere on domestic economic development, because the average Chinese person is still pretty poor.
And from the US perspective, they don't want China suddenly becoming a global military superpower.
And the rest of world would look on with alarm and fear, if the US and China become locked in a cold war mentality.
And in Beijing, there is now serious debate as to whether the USA will try to contain China and keep China poor and undeveloped.
If the Hawks in Beijing ever win that debate, then there probably will be an arms buildup by China.