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bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
Even though U.S doesn't declare that it will defend Taiwan, I am willing to bet 100% that U.S will do that. They are stockpiling like crazy before 2027.

The total production of 5th gen jets for China is far behind US. However, for 6th gen it doesn't have to be that way. If China can outproduce US in 6th jets, it will take the lead in battlefield. I think it is battle ready for Taiwan, US and its allies by 2035. Whatever China is doing for the next 10 years is extremely important.

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Tomboy

Junior Member
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Even though U.S doesn't declare that it will defend Taiwan, I am willing to bet 100% that U.S will do that. They are stockpiling like crazy before 2027.

The total production of 5th gen jets for China is far behind US. However, for 6th gen it doesn't have to be that way. If China can outproduce US in 6th jets, it will take the lead in battlefield. I think it is battle ready for Taiwan, US and its allies by 2035. Whatever China is doing for the next 10 years is extremely important.

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I don't see why any reason is there to rush it, even by 2035. IMO by 2040 China could potentially even force a peaceful unification just by overwhelming military superiority even against the US, of course more overseas Chinese bases forming China's own version of the first island chain to contain the US and reliably threaten CONUS and not just couple of US military outposts and bases in case if they decide to try some funny business.
 

burritocannon

New Member
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personally, i think the davidson window is for the us, not for china. the us has the greater need to attack sooner, rather than later, and i expect it to increase provocation and compel china to attack.
for comparison, although american history sells pearl harbor as an unexpected attack by the japanese, the leadup to america's entry into ww2 is characterized by measures like the export control act of 1940, which was expressly calculated to compel the japanese to choose between forfeiture of their interests or being brought to battle. at the highest levels, america expected, perhaps even hoped for pearl harbor to happen.
 

Tomboy

Junior Member
Registered Member
personally, i think the davidson window is for the us, not for china. the us has the greater need to attack sooner, rather than later, and i expect it to increase provocation and compel china to attack.
for comparison, although american history sells pearl harbor as an unexpected attack by the japanese, the leadup to america's entry into ww2 is characterized by measures like the export control act of 1940, which was expressly calculated to compel the japanese to choose between forfeiture of their interests or being brought to battle. at the highest levels, america expected, perhaps even hoped for pearl harbor to happen.
The arguement for the Davidson window is that since the US right now is lacking against Chinese fleet due to no decent antiship weapons and whatnot but they expect the missile gap to close by ~2028 or so. But IMO that doesn't really account into the advances of technology especially in ABM technology. Plus, most importantly the ever growing numbers of the Chinese underwater fleet with more advanced submarine that could match or exceed USN's own in capability. So IMO US's advantage is waning by the day, it would be in their advantage to provoke an attack as soon as possible before Chinese buildup become so large that it's unmanageable.
 

gpt

Junior Member
Registered Member
The arguement for the Davidson window is that since the US right now is lacking against Chinese fleet due to no decent antiship weapons and whatnot but they expect the missile gap to close by ~2028 or so. But IMO that doesn't really account into the advances of technology especially in ABM technology. Plus, most importantly the ever growing numbers of the Chinese underwater fleet with more advanced submarine that could match or exceed USN's own in capability. So IMO US's advantage is waning by the day, it would be in their advantage to provoke an attack as soon as possible before Chinese buildup become so large that it's unmanageable.

Long range fires and counterspace are the absolute top items for high intensity Westpac scenario. Kendall pretty much said even if 6gen was matured today it wouldn't do much good if those bases are being targeted.

Space Force budget is not sufficient for this and Trump's rather vain Golden Dome proposal further strains the force.

USN attack subs capabilities are very substantial but there are many limitations such as magazine depth.
 

Mearex

New Member
Registered Member
Some interesting claims regarding the F-47 from General David Allvin the Chief of Staff for the US Air Force.

1000nm+ range is in line with what people were expecting, but I what I think is most interesting that the graphic he shared is that the F-47 is expected to be operational by 2029 at the latest. I am guessing in reality this likely means flight testing will be taking place by 2029.
1000 nautical miles combat radius? Isn't that less than the J-20's?
 

ismellcopium

Junior Member
Registered Member
IMO the idea is sound, but you just need a really large constellation for consistent coverage which is the biggest problem here because to have such a network fully operational it'll take a good decade or so but I guess USAF cancelling E-7 to chase the moon isn't too bad for us
How is it sound? C2 function of AEW&C aside, the distance of satellite is so much greater and its power output so much lower I don't see how it'd be able to replace even a fraction of the function of AEW&C.
 

Tomboy

Junior Member
Registered Member
How is it sound? C2 function of AEW&C aside, the distance of satellite is so much greater and its power output so much lower I don't see how it'd be able to replace even a fraction of the function of AEW&C.
You could theoretically cover the entire sky with tens of thousands of satellites that can band together to form a MIMO radar over any specific area of the planet to lower the power required by any specific single satellite, it comes with the added benefit of being able to have simultaneous coverage over the entire planet barring specific locations like directly over the poles for which you could just use normal AEWC aircrafts to plug up. Plus satellite could orbit as low as 180km which isn't insanely far away, Hubble's brothers and sisters orbit in this general region of 180km-250km and so do some other spy satellites. Also planes even stealth aircraft usually have a much higher RCS from top down which might remedy part of the greater average distance involved and lower power output of satellites. But as I said such an approach is extremely time consuming and expensive to setup and may require some currently in development technology such as GaO radar, more efficient energy storage/collection systems and advanced launch vehicles that are capable of lowering the overall cost to increase effectiveness of the system

PS: I looked it up and someone did the math for the max theoretical power generated from the solar panels on an early starlink satellite

"We don't know the exact dimensions of the satellites, but
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. I'll assume that diagonal is 4.4m. That gives a satellite length of ~3.1m. From the
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, we see that the array is as wide as the satellite, and a pixel count (keep in mind, the view is skewed, so the count is not perfect) shows that the panel is about 3.5 times as long as the satellite is wide, or 10.9m. That gives a solar panel area of about 34 m2 ."

We know that ISS generates 240kW of energy for 2500m^2 of solar panels at approximately the same orbit as starlink satellites, that comes to 0.96kW per 10m^2 of nearly 30 year old solar panels(I did the calculations myself and found that the panels were only ~7 percent efficient a far cry from current panels that could reach up to 25 percent efficiency). So, each starlink satellite should have atleast an average power of ~1.5kW over each orbit including depending on the specific orbit approximately half the time spent in darkness. So, with new solar panel technology and battery technology an average power ~1.5kW for the antenna plus a bit more to operate other critical systems for a total of 2kW average could in theory be doable for a theoretical mass produced spy satellite. 1.5kW average power for the antenna is no way a small amount, FYI that's basically the same average power for a medium sized fighter radar. Now imagine thousands upon thousands of these in low LEO that could also band together other satellites in the constellation to form a MIMO array for better detection range/resolution
 
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Totoro

Major
VIP Professional
Starshield's radar satellites orbit at 310 km altitude.
We don't know what sort of power they have, as they are mostly secret.

Iceye commercial radar imaging satellites, for comparison, orbit at 600 km, weigh 100 kg and allegedly achieve 0.5 m resolution (sometimes even 0.25 m is mentioned)
 
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