Yes but that will take a lot of time. You can't rush this. China doesn't even have any operational reusable rocket yet(not even a small/medium one) . So to talk about a super heavy fully reusable rocket is too far fetched as of now.. Gotta learn to crawl before walking. One thing at a time.
US Military News, Reports, Data, etc.
- Thread starter tphuang
- Start date
China would still gain efficiencies with the reusable like $ savings and higher launch rates.
Yeah, even without Starship, Falcon 9 greatly outclasses anything China has for getting stuff into LEO. They launched 134 Falcon rockets last year while the Long March family launched 49. SpaceX has consistently increased their launched cadence every year and will do so again this year with the goal of hitting 180 launches.
I think the US also has superior launch infrastructure. Canaveral, Vandenberg and Kennedy are the three busiest launch facilities in the world. Vandenberg scaled from one launch in 2020 to 47 in 2024.
On the other hand, Chinese orbital launches have been stuck around 60 some odd launches per year for the last several years. I am not sure if they are struggling with building more infrastructure, rockets or both.
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I haven't followed the China Space thread all that closely on this Forum, but from what I can somewhat tell, there's a lot of testing, planning, and prototyping. IMO, the current state of the Chinese space program feels roughly like China's naval program in the early 2000s. On the precipice of exploding out of control in just a 3-5 years.
It is a contrarian opinion but I will still write it. While thinking about the impact of reusable rockets, it is worthwhile to consider what they are launching. In 2024, 97 out of 134 Falcon launches were Starlink or Starshield (military owned Starlink) launches. If we look at just the civilian Starlink and all the launches of the US, still, well more than half the launches are Starlink.
I believe there is merit in waiting until someone tries to launch more sophisticated payloads in numbers that they get choked by the launch capacity.
I believe there is merit in waiting until someone tries to launch more sophisticated payloads in numbers that they get choked by the launch capacity.
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TerraN_EmpirE
Tyrant King
Lower cost isn’t an end all be all of reasons why China may want a reusable booster.
Remember geography and staging.
Chinese launch sites are deep in the western China often overflying more eastern populated areas.
American and European launch sites are generally built equatorial with the Rockets using the earths rotation to give them a speed boost. Farther launch sites are generally located in coastal regions with the rockets fired out too sea. This is so that separating stages can fall into the ocean with little risk of injury.
The big American ones Kennedy to the East into the Atlantic, Vandenberg to the south south west into the Pacific with other facilities following suite the few land locked facilities being artillery or sounding rockets that drop inside
Over the decades of Chinese launches a number of stages and failures have dropped in or near inhabited areas. Remember last June in Xianqiao village, Guizhou Province a Long March 2C first stage dropped creating a panic. Of particular concern in this case isn’t just the fuselage of the rocket but the chemistry that rocket was spewing bright orange smoke a tell tale of Nitrogen tetroxide a highly toxic substance.
LM2 C is also known for using Unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine also highly toxic. If the CNSA moved to a reusable launch system with a high reliability on return to base combined with a lower toxicity propellant. Peace of mind may not be cheap but it has a value all its own.
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