The_Zergling
Junior Member
Well, the Mahdi Army has been lying low given plenty of warning of the US escalation, but the US and Iraqi armies haven't been able to make appreciable progress against the real drivers of the civil war - Sunni guerillas who have so far adapted successfully to new deployments.
Perhaps the frequency of bombings has decreased somewhat but the lethality is not to be understated. The insurgency (which is primarily composed of neo-Baathists, Muslim fundamentalists and Iraqi nationalists) have responded in several ways to the US decision to add additional troops to the Anbar Province and Baghdad. (1) Stand ground, refusing to cede territory (2) Change military tactics
As we all know the Sunni resistance has decided to target US helicopters, making it much more difficult for the US to provide American and Iraqi troops close air support, forcing the US to deploy bombers from out of the range of enemy fire, but as distance increases the likelihood that the US makes a mistake and hits a house full of civilians... it's a bad cycle.
In the Anbar Province which is the key focus of the escalation (The US added some 4000 extra troops) guerrillas have not stopped their attacks. Feb. 24 in Habbaniya (Anbar), guerrillas used a truck bomb to attack a Sunni mosque which was collaborating with the Americans, killing 45 and wounding 110. They have also succeeded in killing a handful of US soldiers.
Meanwhile some other members of the insurgency have simply shifted the focus of their attacks to the Diyala and Ninevah provinces, which have Sunni Arab majorities but are NOT included in the new security arrangements. Because the Sunnis boycotted the last provincial elections - the provincial government, police, and federal troops are predominately Shiite, despite being the minority. Consequently, American forces are seen as enablers of the Shiite fundamentalists. And it's not just limited to Diyala.
Plus, since the escalation, there has been a steep increase in civilian casualties. On Tuesday (the same day Bush was giving a rosy assessment of the 'surge'), Sunni guerrillas bombed processions of Shiite pilgrims paying homage to the grandson of the Prophet Mohammed. 115 pilgrims were killed. This quite obviously undermined American claims of being able to provide security, and will certainly result in Shiite reprisal killings. Many Shiites believe that the Mahdi Army actually did a better job of providing security for religious processions, and the US decision to disarm them this year was a fatal mistake. This is even more striking because the attacks were completely predictable.
Feb. 25, guerillas bombed offices at al-Mustansiriya University, killing 41 people, primarily students.
Feb.26, during a visit by Iraq's Shiite vice president someone blew up government offices, killing 10 persons and wounding many others. The VP wasn't pleased, and accused high officials in his own government of complicity in the assassination attempt.
These major bombings have deeply shaken the confidence of the Iraqis in the new security plans. It can be argued that the US strategy is to reduce the violence in Baghdad and Anbar, allowing the al-Maliki government to assert itself more forcefully with the new breathing room. But the government has found little relief from the attacks, nor has it been able to protect the people. This is very important because if the Iraqis don't feel their government can protect them from violence, they will turn to guerrillas and militias.
There's no current evidence indicting that the Iraqi government can achieve 'freedom' or even sustain and defend itself anytime soon. Last Tuesday the Iraq parliament was unable to convene because it could not garner the requisite quorum. Prime Minister al-Maliki is stating his intentions to have parliament members arrested for involvement in death squads, and dismissing from his cabinet members of Muqtada al-Sadr's Shiite bloc, which helped get him elected in the first place. As a parliamentary democracy, Iraq thus far has failed.
I think it's safe to say that contrary to what President Bush says, there is no reason to believe the new security plan has helped the lives of Iraqis much. This week's massacre of Shiite pilgrims is a bad omen of things to come. I think that one of the most important things the government could have done was protect the pilgrims... but it was unable to.
Perhaps the frequency of bombings has decreased somewhat but the lethality is not to be understated. The insurgency (which is primarily composed of neo-Baathists, Muslim fundamentalists and Iraqi nationalists) have responded in several ways to the US decision to add additional troops to the Anbar Province and Baghdad. (1) Stand ground, refusing to cede territory (2) Change military tactics
As we all know the Sunni resistance has decided to target US helicopters, making it much more difficult for the US to provide American and Iraqi troops close air support, forcing the US to deploy bombers from out of the range of enemy fire, but as distance increases the likelihood that the US makes a mistake and hits a house full of civilians... it's a bad cycle.
In the Anbar Province which is the key focus of the escalation (The US added some 4000 extra troops) guerrillas have not stopped their attacks. Feb. 24 in Habbaniya (Anbar), guerrillas used a truck bomb to attack a Sunni mosque which was collaborating with the Americans, killing 45 and wounding 110. They have also succeeded in killing a handful of US soldiers.
Meanwhile some other members of the insurgency have simply shifted the focus of their attacks to the Diyala and Ninevah provinces, which have Sunni Arab majorities but are NOT included in the new security arrangements. Because the Sunnis boycotted the last provincial elections - the provincial government, police, and federal troops are predominately Shiite, despite being the minority. Consequently, American forces are seen as enablers of the Shiite fundamentalists. And it's not just limited to Diyala.
Plus, since the escalation, there has been a steep increase in civilian casualties. On Tuesday (the same day Bush was giving a rosy assessment of the 'surge'), Sunni guerrillas bombed processions of Shiite pilgrims paying homage to the grandson of the Prophet Mohammed. 115 pilgrims were killed. This quite obviously undermined American claims of being able to provide security, and will certainly result in Shiite reprisal killings. Many Shiites believe that the Mahdi Army actually did a better job of providing security for religious processions, and the US decision to disarm them this year was a fatal mistake. This is even more striking because the attacks were completely predictable.
Feb. 25, guerillas bombed offices at al-Mustansiriya University, killing 41 people, primarily students.
Feb.26, during a visit by Iraq's Shiite vice president someone blew up government offices, killing 10 persons and wounding many others. The VP wasn't pleased, and accused high officials in his own government of complicity in the assassination attempt.
These major bombings have deeply shaken the confidence of the Iraqis in the new security plans. It can be argued that the US strategy is to reduce the violence in Baghdad and Anbar, allowing the al-Maliki government to assert itself more forcefully with the new breathing room. But the government has found little relief from the attacks, nor has it been able to protect the people. This is very important because if the Iraqis don't feel their government can protect them from violence, they will turn to guerrillas and militias.
There's no current evidence indicting that the Iraqi government can achieve 'freedom' or even sustain and defend itself anytime soon. Last Tuesday the Iraq parliament was unable to convene because it could not garner the requisite quorum. Prime Minister al-Maliki is stating his intentions to have parliament members arrested for involvement in death squads, and dismissing from his cabinet members of Muqtada al-Sadr's Shiite bloc, which helped get him elected in the first place. As a parliamentary democracy, Iraq thus far has failed.
I think it's safe to say that contrary to what President Bush says, there is no reason to believe the new security plan has helped the lives of Iraqis much. This week's massacre of Shiite pilgrims is a bad omen of things to come. I think that one of the most important things the government could have done was protect the pilgrims... but it was unable to.
