Lethe
Captain
Continuing to poke around trends in Virginia-class submarine production.
One interesting thing to note is that deliveries began to depart from contract dates before the Columbia-class SSBN program entered construction phase from 2020: SSNs 791-793 commenced construction 2013-2014 and were delivered late 2019 to early 2022. The delays beginning at that point are therefore more closely associated with the shift beginning in FY 2011 to procuring two SSNs per year, up from one per year in the preceding decade, and perhaps also the transition to Block IV (SSNs 792-801) construction. The first VPM boat, SSN-803, was awarded Dec 2019, commenced construction March 2020, was contracted to be delivered April 2026 and is currently estimated to be delivered July 2029.
USN's shows SSN inventory numbers floating between the high 40s to mid-50s out to 2040. This range aligns with that identified by the 1993 as suitable for an era in which the United States faced no peer competitors: 45-55 SSNs. The subsequently refined that inventory target to 50 SSNs. The notion that inventory levels identified in the "unipolar moment" of the 1990s remain adequate in the 2030s is questionable at best, particularly given that the mission set assigned to SSNs has actually increased in the 21st century, manifesting most clearly in Virginia Blocks V/VI incorporating VPM modules from SSN-803 onwards. USN's increased the SSN inventory objective to 66 and it is noteworthy that, proportionally, that was the largest inventory change to emerge from that assessment relative to prior assessments, but the aforementioned 2024 shipbuilding plan shows that SSN inventory numbers will only begin to approach those levels from the early 2040s.
Direct links just in case you want more from Seth Harp:
In the latter episode he shares some of his own experiences in Iraq.
One interesting thing to note is that deliveries began to depart from contract dates before the Columbia-class SSBN program entered construction phase from 2020: SSNs 791-793 commenced construction 2013-2014 and were delivered late 2019 to early 2022. The delays beginning at that point are therefore more closely associated with the shift beginning in FY 2011 to procuring two SSNs per year, up from one per year in the preceding decade, and perhaps also the transition to Block IV (SSNs 792-801) construction. The first VPM boat, SSN-803, was awarded Dec 2019, commenced construction March 2020, was contracted to be delivered April 2026 and is currently estimated to be delivered July 2029.
USN's shows SSN inventory numbers floating between the high 40s to mid-50s out to 2040. This range aligns with that identified by the 1993 as suitable for an era in which the United States faced no peer competitors: 45-55 SSNs. The subsequently refined that inventory target to 50 SSNs. The notion that inventory levels identified in the "unipolar moment" of the 1990s remain adequate in the 2030s is questionable at best, particularly given that the mission set assigned to SSNs has actually increased in the 21st century, manifesting most clearly in Virginia Blocks V/VI incorporating VPM modules from SSN-803 onwards. USN's increased the SSN inventory objective to 66 and it is noteworthy that, proportionally, that was the largest inventory change to emerge from that assessment relative to prior assessments, but the aforementioned 2024 shipbuilding plan shows that SSN inventory numbers will only begin to approach those levels from the early 2040s.
Direct links just in case you want more from Seth Harp:
In the latter episode he shares some of his own experiences in Iraq.
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