Jura The idiot
General
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There are mounting signs of military planning for Venezuela
There are mounting signs of military planning for Venezuela
... goes on right below due to size limitPresident Donald Trump has been talking about ordering a military operation since 2017.
At first, that was widely dismissed as a rash threat, but the idea of a U.S. effort to force in the oil-rich South American country may be gaining momentum in Washington.
“It’s a regime that, frankly, could be toppled very quickly by the military if the military decides to do that,” Trump in September.
In January, National Security Adviser John Bolton flashed a notebook that read “5,000 troops to Colombia."
And on Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo ordered all U.S. diplomats to leave Venezuela, saying their presence there “has become a constraint on U.S. policy,” hinting at opening potential military options.
Speculation about a military assault on Venezuela was also fueled by Trump’s recent appointment of a former George W. Bush administration official who was an architect of the Iraq War, , to be the new “Special Representative for Venezuela.”
Heightened concerns prompted the Democratic-led House Foreign Affairs Committee to meet Wednesday to debate a bill that would prohibit Trump from taking military action in Venezuela without congressional approval.
White House officials say “,” including a military intervention or military support of allies in the region.
Supporters point to the short, successful 1989 invasion of Panama.
But critics say that’s a bad analogy and caution that such a move could result in something resembling the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, in which anti-U.S. factions faced protracted insurgencies.
An invasion of Venezuela would require between 100,000 and 150,000 U.S. troops, who would face as many as 356,000 Venezuelan troops in a country twice the size of Iraq, said Rebecca Chavez, senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue, during testimony at the House hearing.
“It would be prolonged, it would be ugly, there would be massive casualties,” Chavez said.
That nightmare scenario may be farfetched.
Many experts believe the White House’s hawkish statements are not a sign of an imminent military attack but instead a signal to the Venezuelan opposition that the U.S. would support an internal coup.
“They’re not trying to provoke a war," according to Fulton T. Armstrong, a former CIA analyst with significant Latin American experience.
“They’re trying to provoke the Venezuelan military to rise up and overthrow Maduro,” he said.
There appears to be very few advocates for military action outside the White House and many experts believe it is highly unlikely that the Trump administration would follow through on its seemingly threatening rhetoric.
“It would be completely counter-productive,” said Larry Korb, a former Pentagon official who is now at the Center for American Progress.
“This is a no-win situation if you go in. The damage would be much worse than any gains we might get.”
Nevertheless, the crisis is deteriorating rapidly. Refugees and defecting military troops are flowing into Colombia. Maduro recently blamed a massive electricity blackout across the capital city of Caracas on a U.S. cyber attack.
White House officials say the recent election of Maduro was a sham, fraught with corruption, and renders him an illegitimate leader.
Maduro and his allies in the government and military have plundered the nation’s cash from its vast oil reserves, watching its population starve and flee by the millions.
The U.S. has imposed economic sanctions against banks, canceled visas for Venezuelan government officials and taken other economic or political measures to pressure Maduro to exit.
Should Venezuela descend further into chaos, the White House could call upon traditional military operations, like targeted strikes, covert actions and fires, logistical and humanitarian support by U.S. troops in Colombia, Panama or in ships offshore.
“Desperate civilians always turn to the military, and say ‘solve my problems,’” Armstrong said. “And the military often doesn’t push back.”
While Maduro often talks about “a war of all the people," involving mass resistance, a protracted war would be unlikely, said Armstrong, who is now a senior fellow at American University’s Center for Latin American and Latino Studies.
Armstrong added that an American invasion would certainly face snipers and bomb-makers, and it would be costly. But local Venezuelan groups like the colectivos — various gangs, some of which support Maduro — are mainly thugs who wouldn’t stand in the streets against the U.S.
Maduro is likely not the “key symbol that would unify people to resist U.S. military action and lead to a sustained insurgency,” Armstrong said.
“But the U.S. has selected in Juan Guaidó and others, people who have sworn to reverse ‘Chavismo,’” Armstrong said, referencing the poorly defined ideology of the deceased Hugo Chavez, which has at least on paper given the poor a voice.
“[It] may be a perverted voice, but they do have a voice," Armstrong added. Some in Venezuela may fight to retain that.
So far, neither the White House nor the Pentagon has signaled what approach the U.S. might take to end the crisis.
“They keep saying ‘all the options are on the table,’ but they refuse to articulate them. That’s kind of weird, and we’re left to speculate,” Armstrong said.
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