The cost, timing and critical risks of the U.S. military’s plans to counter Russia and China’s new hypersonic weapons are emerging from secrecy. As the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) begins prototyping components of a broad new hypersonic surveillance and defense architecture, the U.S. Air Force’s two hypersonic weapons programs launched last year are expected to achieve operational status within two years, despite technical problems slowing an associated program.
The Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) is the U.S. military’s most advanced reply to Russia’s ground-launched Avangard in the near term. Building on DARPA’s Falcon and Tactical Boost Glide (TBG) programs, the ARRW is expected to become the world’s first air-launched, maneuvering hypersonic glide vehicle with a high lift-to-drag ratio. The Air Force says the ARRW “program is on track” with “no significant deviations from original acquisition strategy and baseline,” according to a mandatory report recently sent to Congress.
In August, the service awarded a $480 million contract to
Missiles and Fire Control to begin developing the ARRW, but the total cost is $859.1 million, the Air Force says.
The program may be on track, but it is facing schedule pressures. A predesign review and a flight test of the first instrumented measurement vehicle vehicle were supposed to be done already, but the delayed receipt of fiscal 2018 funding pushed the design review to late March and the flight test to late June. A subsystem critical design review also is delayed from late March to late September, the report states.
Moreover, DARPA’s TBG is supposed to “significantly reduce the design risk” for the ARRW, the Air Force says, but is also running behind. The ARRW’s high lift-to-drag design remains unproven. The Air Force is relying on the TBG to prove that a wedge-shaped glide vehicle can survive the extreme heat of a hypersonic cruise phase, which DARPA’s previous Falcon program failed to achieve in two flight tests. But the first flight tests for the TBG program also are running behind. Citing unspecified “technical challenges,” DARPA has pushed back the flight test from late June to late December this year, the Air Force says.
As the unproven ARRW design moves forward, the Pentagon also is investing in a lower-risk alternative. The Air Force inherited the conical glide vehicle of the air-launched Hypersonic Conventional Strike Weapon (HCSW) from the Army’s ground-launched Advanced Hypersonic Weapon program, which spawned a common glide-vehicle design shared with the Army’s ground launchers and the Navy’s submarines.
The Air Force awarded Lockheed Martin Space a $928 million contract last April to integrate the HCSW on a B-52, but the service’s independent cost estimate is $1.4 billion, the report shows. The first all-up-round test for the HCSW is scheduled to be completed by late December 2020 and so far appears to be on track. A preliminary design review is set for late June, and a critical design review is planned by late March 2020.
As the Air Force focuses on the ARRW and HCSW near-term, development continues on a supersonic combustion ramjet engine and a waverider-shaped airframe under a long-term effort called the Advanced Full-Range Engine (AFRE) and the Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept (HAWC).
Hypersonic technology has moved from a niche interest into the acquisition mainstream. As new offensive weapons emerge, the MDA is taking the lead on constructing a vast new architecture to detect, track and intercept hypersonic missiles. The ability of hypersonic glide vehicles to maneuver at the top of the atmosphere poses a difficult problem for current defenses designed for ballistic threats with predictable trajectories.
The MDA plans to kick off a prototyping stage for a new Space Sensor Layer (SSL) of surveillance satellites in low Earth orbit with an industry day Jan. 15. The SSL will explore the detection of hypersonic glide vehicles coasting at the top of the atmosphere.
The MDA is reviewing a vast range of hypersonic defense proposals. In September, the agency awarded contracts to eight companies to produce 21 white papers covering nearly every conceivable approach to defeating an attack by hypersonic missiles. The papers will inform the MDA’s development strategy, which is likely to promote development of several different approaches.
These include a new family of interceptor missiles called SkyFire proposed by
; hypervelocity projectiles designed by
,
and
; a laser gun offered by Boeing; and electronic attack systems conceptualized by
, L3 Technologies and Lockheed. Lockheed also has proposed a full range of new interceptors, including a space-based system, an air-launched missile and the “Valkyrie” for terminal hypersonic defense.
