US military exercises in Mongolia!?!

Finn McCool said:

I doubt either of these events will really happen. I think that they are just rumours being spread to test what the Chinese and Russians say about them, basically to see how touchy they are and test the limits of much the US can get away with in the area. A good analogy is like when the Chinese hold provocative military exercises in Fujian Province.

The best thing the US could do in Mongolia would be to establish electronic listening posts so they can get right into the heart of China. An installlation like that would be relatively small so it would not cause as much of a furor as say an airbase would and its true purpose could be denied. They could say it is a "Joint Mongolian-American Development Project" or something like that which provides an excuse for all the antennas but doesn't really back you into anything specific.

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Sorry, i wont happen. China has high resolution imagery sattelites to take detailed photographs of the area the listening posts. Im sure such a thing would be viewed with suspicion.

Secondly, China can send secret agents into Mongolia to investigate. The chinese can then test the listenign centers autenticity by broadcasting some fake radiowave messages across the Gobi, and seeing the U.s reaction.

On a side-note, I don't think that China or Russia would close the Mongolian borders because of military exercises. For one thing civilian flights to China and the Far East regularly pass through Mongolian airspace, so Beijing wouldn't want Ulaanbaatar to retaliate by stopping airlines flying through their airspace. Second is it even legal to do that if the forces are just being used for peaceful activities/the host country wants them there?

Either way locking Mongolia off would cause a diplomatic crisis - I doubt that Beijing or Moscow are petty enough to do that over military exercises.

I think what the article meant was the US bombing Daio Yu Dao, but simulating the bombing of Daio Yu Dao. It's part of the package to train Japanese ground personel in amphibious warfare.

I've read unconfirmed reports that Outer Mongolia already has some US listening posts. The problem with Mongolia is not so much a US tank thrust into Beijing, as it is reconnaisance and perhaps SOF. These are long term problems that will need to be faced eventually.

The second problem is that putting Mongolia squarely in the anti-Chinese alliance (and I affirm this is an apt term) is harmful to China diplomatically. Look at all those little countries that send token forces (<50 soliders) to Iraq. They're not militarily useful at all, but only diplomatically. Again this is a long term problem that will need to be faced.

Yes, this particular exercises are unlikely to be massive. BUT..... they will be bigger than previous military cooperation because this involves a bunch of countries -- Japan, S. Korea, Singapore, Australia, etc. -- and its a clear diplomatic snub to China and Russia. How big will it be next time?

So, I would hazard a guess as to say this situation is currently a low/moderate threat, but growing. China and Russia needs to get together to put pressure on Outer Mongolia to prevent it from getting out of hand in the near future. In particular, China needs to make counter-reconnaisance a high priority.


[BTW: A good friend of mine noted that when he was in Beijing, somebody he knew (a tourist) tried to take a picture of Zhongnanhai. A guard ran up and tackled him. Poor sod. ]

Vince: I looked at the article again. I'm not sure why you think it's talking about a simulation, rather than the real thing. Could somebody else who can read Chinese tell us what's going on?

This is about as overblown as the time when Russians sent 200 paratroopers to occupy the Pristina Airport.

The US has been sending 50 military personnel to Mongolia every year to help train Mongolian army in peacekeeping operations for several years now. In return, Mongolia sent 173 soliders to Hillah, Iraq, as a peacekeeping battlion, plus additional 15 men team to Afghan as army instructors.

To make sure that Russia and China are not alarmed, both nations are invited to send observers to the joint US-Mongolian exercise and training programs.

What everyone needs to realize is that Mongolia, though large and geographically important, its a small shrimp in terms of military and economic powers. The country as a whopping total of 2.7 million people, with a 45,000 men army, and 50% of its exports goes to China. When other nations offer miltiary or economic aid, its' usually in SINGLE DIGIT millions.

Eamples: in 2001, the US gave Mongolia $3.5 million in military aid. In 2004 China gave Mongolia $4 million economic aid in grants.

Comparred to US aid to Israel and Egypt, providing aid to Mongolia to buy influence is like, handing out pocket change. Mongolia's annual military budget is $23 million. That'd buy you 2 F-7's.

Also, I have little doubt that Mongolia have (or had) Russian & US listening posts, just as the PRC hosted US listening posts during the cold war.

adeptitus, You are probaly 100% correct. I tride to find info about this excersise on the net. I found nothing. So I tend to believe it is a small scale excersise...I really . Why? Because the US Dod can't do anything without telling everyone their next move.

You guys, except adeptitus, can keep dreaming about the PLA disrupting this whole thing..like I said it's a nothing excersise.

The sort of 'PLA interuption' scenario I put up, although I doubt you even really care rofl: ) was really just a 'if they did' scenario. The United States has been conducting exersises on friendly forigen soil for decades, and I doubt that they would be stupid enough to go trapeezing about recklessly so close to a nation as signifigant to the U.S as China. Like others have said, it's probably just a small scale exersise and I am sure the PLA has, if not cleared, chose to ignore the whole situation.

By the way. Kudos to adeptitus.

I think that they (The Mongolians) are happy to play China & US off each other. Also, there are a few Soviet-built airbases the US would like to have access to in the future. As for ELINT posts, I'm sure the US embassies in Ulan Bator & Beijing have them. In case of any future Cold war/ conftontation with China, it's only prudent to cultivate relations with China's neighbors and historic enemies. The Buddhist branch in Mongolia & Tibet are one and the same, and there are big problems in Inner Mongolia, not to mention Chinese Turkestan & other Muslims in general. As their internal problems get worse, the external enemies will have easier task to meddle in their internal affairs and even try to split China into several states.