US military exercises in Mongolia!?!

Humm...To bad I don't read Chinese. I could not find anything on this subject.

In an article about when Rumsfeild went to Mongolia. It was stated in that article that the US and Mongolia have held joint excersises the past three years. In fact there are some US Marines imbedded with the Mongolian Army.



Can anyone find a link in English about this excersise? Thanks!

Finn McCool said:

I think we can draw some hisorical parallels. Does anybody remember the Taiwan Strait incident in 1995 or whatever when the US sent a carrier through the strait in response to a Chinese exercise? Well, China would like to do the same thing. Despite all of its talk about a peaceful rise, China is a jealous country that feels that it has something to prove.

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I don't think Jealous is right word, and China certainly don't need to prove anything.

Just look at the furor over WWII history. In fact, China's history is why it is so touchy over matters like this. I think that in the Chinese mind foreigners shelling Daiyutai and conducting exercises in Mongolia are strongly reminiscent of the Treaty Ports, Boxer Rebellion and the era of dominiation by foreigners. That is a past China is avenging through its growing economic and military power. Through modernity the Chinese are trying to erase that past of humiliation and defeat.

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The Mongolia is surround by Russia and China, and if US want to conduct a military exercise. It might need to by pass their air space, and this might become sensitive. Secondly, why would US want to conduct exercise in Mongolia which have nothing to do with war on terriosm, US's intention is quick clear. But I don't see China or Russia will react strongly over this exercise, unless exercise conducts something very provocative.
Chinese might be sensitive over their territories, but every nations are rightly so. The Daututai islands are dispute area, if US and Japan really conduct excercise in that particular place. Both China and Taiwan will react strongly. It has nothing to do with history, simply a territories dispute.

History might play a part of sentiment, but China will not conduct their national policies on past.

And anything that smacks of it will anger them. China has a dangerous inferiority complex and is unpredictable because of it. That is why actions that provoke it, such as these, are so dangerous.

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China has a inferiority complex is quick debatable, because I could see things complete opposite. I don't think any countries will take it likely when others nations conduct exercise in dispute area.

I highly doubt it's anything significant. Really, if it is as grand as people here are making it out to be, it would be a huge potential for China and Russia to gather massive amounts of intelligence and information when the exercises are conducted. So most likely the exercises are insignificant and symbolic only serving the Pentagon's delusional misguided sense of international geo-politics. It only shows the hypocrisy of the US when it's alarmed over Sino-Russian or North Korean military exercises.

Mongolia certainly wants to stick it in the eye of Russia and China. Genghis Khan is in the past. Mongolia's glory days are over. The US can't do anything more than turning Mongolia into a welfare satellite state of the US. Land-locked countries, especially underdeveloped ones, need their neighbors if they want to leave being underdeveloped behind. Mongolia isn't under threat. It's all ego and living in the past motivating them. So unless the US is planning an offensive against China or take control of Siberian gas and oil, Mongolia is insignificant for anything else. Besides, under Bush's doctrine of the right to pre-emptive attack, China or Russia would be in its right to roll-over Mongolia before any significant US force can be established.

This seems to be proof of the fact that we don't give a damn about Taiwan. Taiwan is merely a pawn in a geopolitical game of chess and we'd sacrifice them to protect a rook.

If were China or Russia, I would let the US go to Mongolia.

Exercises are expensive and I wonder if the US was hoping that China and Russia would pull the plug, so that US could indulge in finger pointing.

So let them go and waste their money, it would always be a wholly unrealistic scenario. Does anyone seriously beleive a sizable US garrison could be lifted into Mongolia and maintained in the event of a real conflict?

No me neither.

The Japanese matter is something else entirely. In many ways the relationship is not as bad as the headlines suggest. There are many positive contacts at many different levels, it is just the senior contacts that seem fraught.

This could just be a case of high brinksmanship; a game played by both sides, prior to the next round of Oil/Gas negotiaitions regarding the area, due sometime in April.

Taiwan being involved would be a real provocation, I will believe that when I see it.

SampanViking said:

If were China or Russia, I would let the US go to Mongolia.

Exercises are expensive and I wonder if the US was hoping that China and Russia would pull the plug, so that US could indulge in finger pointing.

So let them go and waste their money, it would always be a wholly unrealistic scenario. Does anyone seriously beleive a sizable US garrison could be lifted into Mongolia and maintained in the event of a real conflict?

No me neither.

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I disagree about your suggestion.

There is a political angle you are overlooking here. The US is clearly trying to encircle and contain China. Mongolia wouldn't be the biggest piece in this chess game, but it could be a base for SOF. More importantly, having one more member sign on to an anti-Chinese alliance would embolden others. Other threads on SDF have mentioned that Chinese neighbors such as Vietnam are unlikely to sign on to such an alliance because they would bear the brunt of the conflict while the US would get all the benefits. If Mongolia is allowed to get away with this with impunity, it would embolden many other similarly situated countries too.

I suggest that China and Russia should work together to deal with this situation, since a US presence in Mongolia threatens both (albeit Beijing more). This is a very similar situation to the former US presence in Uzbekistan, which was more of a threat to Russian influence.

China and Russia can easily apply sticks and carrots. They can restrict airspace use and cut them off from the outside world, or instead China can send aid and investments. Mongolia cannot be allowed to publicly join an anti-Chinese alliance with impunity.

SampanViking said:

The Japanese matter is something else entirely. In many ways the relationship is not as bad as the headlines suggest. There are many positive contacts at many different levels, it is just the senior contacts that seem fraught.

This could just be a case of high brinksmanship; a game played by both sides, prior to the next round of Oil/Gas negotiaitions regarding the area, due sometime in April.

Taiwan being involved would be a real provocation, I will believe that when I see it.

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I agree with your assessment.

I think the best course is to let this one ride out and see how Taiwan reacts.

And then next year, send a few boats over and shell the island too.

In international law, custom and precedent is everything. If they've established a precedent by shelling a disputed territory, they can hardly say we're doing something provocative by doing the same thing. JMSDF can prevent Taiwanese or Chinese (civilians or military) from landing on the island, but they can't do anything about a SRBM hitting it.

Poor Daiyutai Islands. Getting shelled by everyone like that. Tragic.:rofl:

A lot of countries would beinterested in joining a regional anti-China alliance. For example take Kazakhstan. They are so afraid of the Chinese that theyy moved their capital away from the border (although a meglomanic ruler also had something to do with it). The US would be far better served by doing htings like this in Muslim Central Asia. It would be a lot less provocative than Mongolia, a lot more practical, and would be a greater threat to the Chinese. The last thing the Chinese need is a US military presence on top of all their worries about the Uighiurs, the Tibetians and all the other minoities out in the Western Provinces.

Finn McCool said:

Poor Daiyutai Islands. Getting shelled by everyone like that. Tragic.:rofl:

A lot of countries would beinterested in joining a regional anti-China alliance. For example take Kazakhstan. They are so afraid of the Chinese that theyy moved their capital away from the border (although a meglomanic ruler also had something to do with it). The US would be far better served by doing htings like this in Muslim Central Asia. It would be a lot less provocative than Mongolia, a lot more practical, and would be a greater threat to the Chinese. The last thing the Chinese need is a US military presence on top of all their worries about the Uighiurs, the Tibetians and all the other minoities out in the Western Provinces.

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I think you are giving a bad example. Kazakhstan has a better relationship with China than Mongolia has. Kazakstan was part of the oringinal Shanghai Five, and they had been conducting military exercises with China.

The central Asia is a lot more complicate area, and US, Russia and China all have interest in this place. But nobody has clear advantages, China has incresing their influence in Central Asia by investing in the Oil sectors. Since Kazakstan had builted the oil pipelin to China, I seriously doubt they will interest in any anti-china alliance.

Finn McCool said:

Poor Daiyutai Islands. Getting shelled by everyone like that. Tragic.:rofl:

A lot of countries would beinterested in joining a regional anti-China alliance. For example take Kazakhstan. They are so afraid of the Chinese that theyy moved their capital away from the border (although a meglomanic ruler also had something to do with it). The US would be far better served by doing htings like this in Muslim Central Asia. It would be a lot less provocative than Mongolia, a lot more practical, and would be a greater threat to the Chinese. The last thing the Chinese need is a US military presence on top of all their worries about the Uighiurs, the Tibetians and all the other minoities out in the Western Provinces.

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You've been watching too much West Wing for your world news. The US already has a headache in Iraq and you think it can take on China? People in Central Asia already know about American friendship. Afghanistan and Pakistan fought for American interests against the Soviet Union during the Cold War and when that was over, the US cut them off and the result was Al Qaeda and the Taliban. In this Cold War, the US will lose simply because it will have to buy its allies to form against China. A lot of poor countries needed to bribe there. How much more of hit can the US take on its indebted economy to the world. China could simply stop buying and holding dollars it has in their reserves. That alone will send the US economy sinking thus no money to bribe countries with. What's really ironic is that the "democratic" poor countries will be more costly to bribe since since you're not dealing with one dictator to pay-off.

Americans are already peeing in its pants about China in South America and Africa. That's the difference why China is making diplomatic inroads around the world that alarms the US. Contrary to the propaganda about the "communist" agenda from the US, China's policies are purely economic devoid of direct geo-politics and are mutual with the countries in question. Where as the US requires conformity to its geo-political, economic, and cultural social agenda. How ironic!

I think most people here are totally overblowing some minor military exercise. Since when does a military exerciese equate to to becoming a member of the "anti-China alliance". That sounds about as stupid as the infamous "axis of evil".

It would be nice to see some other sources and more details before everyone just jumps to conclusions and blows everything way out of proportion.

I couldn't find anything about this year's exercise, but here are some links to articles about last year's exercises:





seems pretty benign to me, but here i am posting on a China military forum