US military exercises in Mongolia!?!

The US accounced on March 20, 2006 that they intend to hold multinational military exercises in Mongolia in August. Invited are Japan, S. Korea, Singapore, Australia, among others. NOT invited are China and Russia.

From first appearances, this appears to be a very aggressive. It seems like it can be interpreted as a threat of force, especially against China since Beijing is so close to Mongolia. And besides, Outer Mongolia was a part of the Qing dynasty for hundreds of years.

If it is, I suggest China and Russia may decide to deny the US and its allies use of their airspace. Since Mongolia is landlocked, that would be the end of the exercises.

it is, I suggest China and Russia may decide to deny the US and its allies use of their airspace. Since Mongolia is landlocked, that would be the end of the exercises.

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and doing it, the cold war would begun all over again...But indeed this kind of exercicies are VERY provocative in nature. But then again, being so many centuryes as a pawn for beging and Moscows hegemony, Mongolians would welcome this kind of 'invitation' to international community despite the actuall results would likely result Ulan-Bator to becoming pawn of Whasington against Russia-china co-operation. It would have been lot clewer for US to invite Moscow OR Beging, but not the other to the game and create rift between those two...

It sounds like a very provokative action, both towards China and Russia. Just how close will these exercises be to the border? I can't read Chinese.
And I think it will produce some nasty results. Naturally China will condemn the exercise as an attempt to provoke, and if it is an invasion exercise, it will definetly trigger an equivalent Chinese response (e.g. conducting missile tests, naval or air exercises in the Taiwan Strait, for example). They will also condemn Mongolia for allowing the U.S. to conduct exercise there, which may cool Sino-Mongolian relations. And if U.S. aircraft conduct exercises near the either the Chinese or Russian borders, both countries will probably send their own fighters to intercept them. If a U.S. aircraft strays into Chinese airspace, it will almost certainly be shot down.

Yes, it is provocative to the point of being scary. I also found this:




The US announced on March 21 that they will conduct joint exercises with Japan that will involve bombarding of the Daiyu Islands (Senkaku in Japanese). As we all know, these islands are in dispute between China, Japan and even Taiwan. In the article, Taiwanese officials are saying that they will take "any necessary action" to protect the territory of the Republic of China if the US and Japan goes through with it.

Theory: perhaps these two announcements are a ruse. They are intended to test Chinese reaction. I mean, geez. Why on earth would the US need to conduct exercises in Mongolia? They can do it anywhere else. Why can't they choose another uninhabited rock in the Pacific to bombard; why Daiyutai?

Any thoughts?

political penis contest.

The US has already been training Japanese ground personel on amphibious warfare a la beachhead capture.

I would like to see if the Taiwanese actually send any forces to the Daiyu islands. If they do, this shall be very entertaining. All china has to do is sit back and watch it's two enemies kill eachother over a small island.

If the U.s goes through with the bombardment, Taiwan will pay a price. Deteriorated Roc-Roj relations might mean no japanese assistance in an invasion of Taiwan.

As for the first excercise, I would like to see the russians and Chinese line the U.S air routes into mongolia with s-300's, and dare the americans to come.

If Mongolia does hold this exercise, there will be very heavy economic reactions for the nation, as we all know, Mongolia is landlock and thus must transport all trade through Russia and China either by land or air. The two major powers might not cut the routes, but will most likely make it more difficult in terms of customs and inspections.

The matter of bombardmetn of Diaoyu, The government of ROC is seriously between a rock and a hard place, If CSB doesn't do anything, he will definitly be labelled as a traitor by the people of taiwan and the mainland.

The coming few month are going to be interest, guess we are not gonna run out of discussion topics.

Roger604 said:

Yes, it is provocative to the point of being scary. I also found this:

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The US announced on March 21 that they will conduct joint exercises with Japan that will involve bombarding of the Daiyu Islands (Senkaku in Japanese). As we all know, these islands are in dispute between China, Japan and even Taiwan. In the article, Taiwanese officials are saying that they will take "any necessary action" to protect the territory of the Republic of China if the US and Japan goes through with it.

Theory: perhaps these two announcements are a ruse. They are intended to test Chinese reaction. I mean, geez. Why on earth would the US need to conduct exercises in Mongolia? They can do it anywhere else. Why can't they choose another uninhabited rock in the Pacific to bombard; why Daiyutai?

Any thoughts?

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How do I respond to this? With A Quote from Rage against the machine: "The motherfuckers lost their minds!"
Seriously, the U.S. government are out of their minds. Conducting advanced military exercises in a country right on the Chinese border is one thing, bombarding the Dayu islands is entirely another. The U.S. can certainly expect the Chinese response to be just as bad - the PLA might bomb the Kinmen and Matsu islands in retaliation. I reckon that Chinese fighters intercepting U.S. spyplanes of the Chinese coast might become more aggressive after that - firing cannon rounds above the spyplanes as warning shots. They might even shoot them down, or try to lure U.S. or Taiwanese jets into S-300 range or Chinese airspace, the same tactic used by Iraqi fighters against coalition aircraft patrolling the no-fly zones. I think George W. Bush is taking the world further to World War 3. What reason would they have to do it? China is a major U.S. trading partner. If they go through with this, then again, as Rage said, it will be WAR WITHIN A BREATH!!!

After the fall of USSR, Mongolia has been suffer econmy hardship for years. They fellow the western(US) style of reform which went terrible. The fault policy of the central government result the Mongolia become heavyly indebt. Actually the Mongolia foreign debts level is one of the highest in the world. Secondly, the Mongolia had sold over half of their resources to foreign companies, so they are now completely without their own coporation.

Since Russia will not provide further asistance, Mongolia turn to west for help. That why for the last few years, Mongolia and US relationship are becoming very active. This kind of excercise is a result of Mongolia attend to draw closer to US influence, but things are not simple as that. Eventhrough US had send many people to Mongolia, but the aid and asistance still do not help the Mongolia revive their economy. Today, Mongolia become more and more rely on China on economy, and eventhrough Mongolia central government don't like to be close to China. More and more Mognolians are going to China for works and educations.

I don't know why Mongolia want to conduct this kind of exercise. It just don't make much sense. Sure the relationship between mongolia and US will be beneficial, but the damage will be more extended. Russia and China will not be happy, and it is very provocative.

I think we can draw some hisorical parallels. Does anybody remember the Taiwan Strait incident in 1995 or whatever when the US sent a carrier through the strait in response to a Chinese exercise? Well, China would like to do the same thing. Despite all of its talk about a peaceful rise, China is a jealous country that feels that it has something to prove. Just look at the furor over WWII history. In fact, China's history is why it is so touchy over matters like this. I think that in the Chinese mind foreigners shelling Daiyutai and conducting exercises in Mongolia are strongly reminiscent of the Treaty Ports, Boxer Rebellion and the era of dominiation by foreigners. That is a past China is avenging through its growing economic and military power. Through modernity the Chinese are trying to erase that past of humiliation and defeat. And anything that smacks of it will anger them. China has a dangerous inferiority complex and is unpredictable because of it. That is why actions that provoke it, such as these, are so dangerous.