US F/A-XX and F-X & NGAD - 6th Gen Aircraft News Thread
- Thread starter Jeff Head
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They've already awarded the contract so they're going to go with the Boeing design whether it's any good. Of course, the plane they're talking about is the first flying prototype and the production model can be quite different, but if they're publicly celebrating milestones this far out, I think they're trying to get the design out as quickly as possible.
Do you guys know how long it took to go from the first YF-22 to LRIP F-22?
Answer: 1997 to 2005, approximately 8 years.
Do you know how long it took to go from the first F-35 prototype to F-35 LRIP?
Answer: 2006 to 2015, approximately 9 years.
There is something to note here though. The YF-22 represents a much earlier demonstrator rather than F-22 prototype. Demonstrator and prototypes definitions can be blurry and how advanced that demonstrator is could be anywhere between Northrop X-36 scaled down model to Lockheed Martin YF-22 or X-35 level. It still takes close to a decade between first proper prototype and LRIP.
For J-20 prototype 1 - 2011 first flew in 2011, LRIP in 2017, approximately 6 years to go from first prototype to LRIP.
The USAF has basically confirmed that F-47 first proper prototype is aimed to fly in 2028.
No it is not the LRIP version. At no point has the US ever broadcasted a non-black project (B-2, F-117, RQ-170, RQ-180) where it shows what it's doing, the program and reveals the program before or during prototype stage and not go through that above decade of prototyping and refining before LRIP.
This 2028 goal to produce "the first F-47" is worded in such a way to placate the masses. They mean the first F-47 flying prototype since they earlier inferred that they have not produced any F-47 prototypes when they stated that Boeing has just won the F-47 competition based on X-plane flyoffs and those flyoffs they strongly hinted years earlier to be based on digital engineering to evaluate more designs faster.
This shows the US is approximately 2028-2024 = 4 years behind China and that's if they meet a December 2028 first prototype flight for F-47.
Meanwhile China has 2 separate 6th gen supersonic fighter platforms (so no B-21 doesn't qualify by any stretch) that exceed in different areas of strength.
Answer: 1997 to 2005, approximately 8 years.
Do you know how long it took to go from the first F-35 prototype to F-35 LRIP?
Answer: 2006 to 2015, approximately 9 years.
There is something to note here though. The YF-22 represents a much earlier demonstrator rather than F-22 prototype. Demonstrator and prototypes definitions can be blurry and how advanced that demonstrator is could be anywhere between Northrop X-36 scaled down model to Lockheed Martin YF-22 or X-35 level. It still takes close to a decade between first proper prototype and LRIP.
For J-20 prototype 1 - 2011 first flew in 2011, LRIP in 2017, approximately 6 years to go from first prototype to LRIP.
The USAF has basically confirmed that F-47 first proper prototype is aimed to fly in 2028.
No it is not the LRIP version. At no point has the US ever broadcasted a non-black project (B-2, F-117, RQ-170, RQ-180) where it shows what it's doing, the program and reveals the program before or during prototype stage and not go through that above decade of prototyping and refining before LRIP.
This 2028 goal to produce "the first F-47" is worded in such a way to placate the masses. They mean the first F-47 flying prototype since they earlier inferred that they have not produced any F-47 prototypes when they stated that Boeing has just won the F-47 competition based on X-plane flyoffs and those flyoffs they strongly hinted years earlier to be based on digital engineering to evaluate more designs faster.
This shows the US is approximately 2028-2024 = 4 years behind China and that's if they meet a December 2028 first prototype flight for F-47.
Meanwhile China has 2 separate 6th gen supersonic fighter platforms (so no B-21 doesn't qualify by any stretch) that exceed in different areas of strength.
I am not sure... I wonder if they are willing to accept more risk with this program? On top of that, I wonder how much risk reduction was done through subsystem development over the past decade or so? Also, maybe F-47 isn't as advanced of a platform so the development time could have been shrunk considerably due to that?
I don't really think you are wrong per se, but we should at least account for the fact that this program might be handled very differently from the examples you gave. For example, the F-15 was selected in 1969, first flew in 1972 and entered service in 1976. It wouldn't be too far of a stretch to have the F-47 entering service around 2032 if we look at the F-15 as a baseline.
Anyway, time will tell what will happen with the F-47.
If F-47 production version is what they mean by 2028 and hits USAF hangars in 2028, that would be like the entire YF-22 to F-22 prototypes being hidden between 1997 and 2002 where it was announced in 2002 that its first production version will hit USAF in 2005.
Instead of that we saw hundreds of ads, drawings, renderings (very accurate ones), the empty demonstrator YF-22 and some pics of prototypes since 1997.
The F-35 went through even more fanfare between demonstrator and LRIP with literally thousands of images of various prototype aircrafts and TV shows.
If we want to make the claim that it's a B-2, F-117 and RQ-170/180 deal where it's only revealed when it reaches service like China's UADFs and GJ-11, well then why did they publicise the NGAD, PCA, FA-xx F47 programs with so much ridiculous fanfare. These days the US isn't even hiding the B-21 and showing it off while it's still prototyping!
BTW B-21 is an actual prototype. It has its instruments, weapons suite, avionics etc all pretty much there and in refining/iteration. Demonstrators at most just have the shell and some engine to evaluate the airframe.
Instead of that we saw hundreds of ads, drawings, renderings (very accurate ones), the empty demonstrator YF-22 and some pics of prototypes since 1997.
The F-35 went through even more fanfare between demonstrator and LRIP with literally thousands of images of various prototype aircrafts and TV shows.
If we want to make the claim that it's a B-2, F-117 and RQ-170/180 deal where it's only revealed when it reaches service like China's UADFs and GJ-11, well then why did they publicise the NGAD, PCA, FA-xx F47 programs with so much ridiculous fanfare. These days the US isn't even hiding the B-21 and showing it off while it's still prototyping!
BTW B-21 is an actual prototype. It has its instruments, weapons suite, avionics etc all pretty much there and in refining/iteration. Demonstrators at most just have the shell and some engine to evaluate the airframe.
What you're suggesting is less likely since they publicised everything. The real black projects from both nations are only revealed after they reach service.
But they may try to rush this F-47 seeing how far ahead China is. Either way, their corner cutting will not be producing a capability that would otherwise be if they didn't rush it.
It could be assembled with subsystems already developed but I think they are purposefully not saying they mean production version for USAF in 2028. The wording "first F-47" gives it away. The first of a fighter platform is demonstrator or prototype. They definitely flew demonstrators even scaled down models and aided with plenty of computer modelling but when the USAF says first F-47, I'm confident they mean first proper prototype like we had the "first B-21" (in prototype form) fly recently.
I would compare the day each country can produce 100 units of each plane and also achieves "full operational capability". Anything else before that is still on the testing and training phase.
With 100 units you have some capability to actually use it in combat and make a difference. If it can't be used in combat, then its still a test air craft and doesn't matter operationally.
Lethe
Captain
I suspect it is intended to placate one Donald J. Trump.
Uhh, that is not what happened at all with the B-21. There are four B-21's that have been produced so far. Two ground test articles and two flying articles. The "first" B-21 was being used for flight tests, while the second B-21 is being used for weapons testing along with other objectives. Both flying articles are expected to be combat capable and enter service. Neither aircraft is a prototype.
Yes and from the other direction, these two flying B-21s are also the first B-21s that represent close to what the LRIP versions will be like. So they are also "prototypes" in the literal sense of the word prototype.
In this case, they are just blurring the lines a little and getting those advanced prototype B-21s into combat capable state after their primary informative purposes have been fulfilled. All it is is exactly what the US said years ago, they are trimming down the development cycle time.
These two are still prototypes built primarily to evaluate and assist in developing the eventual LRIP forms of B-21. In the same way 36011 prototype is assisting in developing the eventual LRIP J-36.