US F/A-XX and F-X & NGAD - 6th Gen Aircraft News Thread

[MC530]

Okay guys let’s take a moment and touch grass.
Cold hard reality check.
1) Those of us who are looking for intakes and vertical tails on the F47 render images form the Whitehouse announcement. Stop. Those are CGI images, meant as placeholders. The shadows and voids are not hiding anything it’s just the void.
2) The same for the video. That’s just a placeholder. It doesn’t necessarily mean anything. Until Boeing actually has a public roll out of the YF47 take every image with a grain of salt treat it like you would any other mockup. It’s like the hype train that is the “white emperor”, Topgun Maverick Darkstar or the Talons from Stealth or even the OG of it all the Firefox from the Movie Firefox or any of the Ace combat video game fighters. Be skeptical.

First, any rendering is propaganda, but if the "White House" and "Air force" still adopt such an "informal" attitude when it is officially announced, it is difficult to imagine what "NGAD will be coming soon" means? After all, if it is confirmed that this aircraft exists or the design is finalized, only a few programmers are needed, and the White House can obtain a real and reliable "rendering" rather than an artist's imagination.Imagine how frustrating it is for a company to only deliver an "artistic rendering" to the client after 10 years of preparation for the project. The former Secretary of the Air Force’s reasons for delaying NGAD did not include “only” “artistic renderings.” Now that the money is ready, where are the "blueprints" for our aircraft?

NGAD was designed around digital twin and digital design so the transition from demonstration to prototype is going to be faster. It’s almost like 3D printing a plane. As a result older renderings may not have any relationship to the finished product. The same for GCAP but most especially FCAS as it’s got the longest timeline.

Second, we seem to have heard the definition of "quick" at the T7 launch conference. Boeing has spent three years just processing a few details. How can digital twin and digital design be so fast? The F35 has been waiting on the tarmac of Lockheed Martin for a year. Can Boeing surpass the speed of the F35? After all, even with digital design, Boeing can only provide "artist renderings" rather than real photos of the digital design demonstrator.

3) Chest thumping about J36 and J50 also needs a cold water shower as well. Neither are production ready. They are flight demonstration or early prototypes. Unlikely to enter service before the end of the decade. It’s still very possible for F47 to enter production at the same time as the most mature of the two.

Third, demonstrators or early prototypes do not need to add all sensor windows, nor do they need to perform oil drain tests. Moreover, digital twins and digital design do not seem to be difficult for Chinese programmers. There is no need to brag. If Chinese designers follow realistic aircraft manufacturing principles, they will produce 3-5 prototypes and gradually add test projects. It is difficult to imagine that Boeing will be able to catch up with this progress when the first prototype takes off four years later. If the progress of T7 is estimated, Mr. Trump needs to start his third term to obtain F47.

4) “6th Generation” is marketing. Flying wing body may be part of it but not necessarily a prerequisite. Stealth is part of 5th generation but the degree of it is variable. Most of what makes a 5th generation is avionics. It’s likely that the same will hold for a 6th generation. As marketing its entirely possible for different builders to have there own definitions. The Chinese system had been branding J20 and J35 has “4th generation” well Su35 and fighters in their own fleet viewed internationally as “4th generation” were “3rd generation.”

This is the only thing I agree with. Generation fighter is indeed a marketing term rather than an accurate military term.
But there's still some boomerang damage to be done before that happens: What's the cost of a canard?

 

[MC530]

Another guess about FA/XX: No matter who wins the contract, the Navy will give the Air Force a huge blow: the Secretary of the Air Force's funds may only be enough to purchase 300 NGADs, and the Navy's 11 aircraft carriers are likely to purchase more than 300 FA/xx to meet the needs of training and all flight decks. Is this the real reason why General Kendall complained that "NGAD is too expensive and the US Air Force does not have enough funds"? Unable to win an overwhelming victory against the navy

 

[Jason_]

Okay guys let’s take a moment and touch grass.
Cold hard reality check.

Absolutely nothing you said here is a "reality check." Rather they are your baseless assumptions that in many cases going against available evidence.

1) Those of us who are looking for intakes and vertical tails on the F47 render images form the Whitehouse announcement. Stop. Those are CGI images, meant as placeholders. The shadows and voids are not hiding anything it’s just the void.

This is your assumption. No evidence whatsoever that the F-47 will look any different from the official, USAF and POTUS endorsed image.

2) The same for the video. That’s just a placeholder. It doesn’t necessarily mean anything. Until Boeing actually has a public roll out of the YF47 take every image with a grain of salt treat it like you would any other mockup. It’s like the hype train that is the “white emperor”, Topgun Maverick Darkstar or the Talons from Stealth or even the OG of it all the Firefox from the Movie Firefox or any of the Ace combat video game fighters. Be skeptical.

You are assuming the CG means nothing. Combined with the official CG and the X-36 X-plane that Boeing flew, the far more likely interpretatin is that Boeing has been actively researching tailess canard configurations, hence the F-47 design.

NGAD was designed around digital twin and digital design so the transition from demonstration to prototype is going to be faster. It’s almost like 3D printing a plane. As a result older renderings may not have any relationship to the finished product. The same for GCAP but most especially FCAS as it’s got the longest timeline.

You are assuming digital twins will help Boeing design the NGAD faster. This is in fact contradicted by Boeing's work with the T-7A, where digital designs caused crippling delays on a simple, low risk trainer program.

3) Chest thumping about J36 and J50 also needs a cold water shower as well. Neither are production ready. They are flight demonstration or early prototypes. Unlikely to enter service before the end of the decade. It’s still very possible for F47 to enter production at the same time as the most mature of the two.

Your assumption again. The J-20 for example went from the 2011 EMD prototype to IOC in about 4 years. It's not "chest thumping" to recognize that by USAF's own optimistic projection, the F-47 will have its first flight towards the end of Trump's presidency in 2029, while China flew its two aircrafts FIVE YEAR EARLIER. To assert otherwise is not a cold water shower. It's a copium shower.

4) “6th Generation” is marketing. Flying wing body may be part of it but not necessarily a prerequisite. Stealth is part of 5th generation but the degree of it is variable. Most of what makes a 5th generation is avionics. It’s likely that the same will hold for a 6th generation. As marketing its entirely possible for different builders to have there own definitions. The Chinese system had been branding J20 and J35 has “4th generation” well Su35 and fighters in their own fleet viewed internationally as “4th generation” were “3rd generation.”

"Most of what makes a 5th generation is avionics." -- Wrong

You are also obfuscating between a legitimate debate on the proper delineation of fighter generation with PLAAF's quirky internal fighter generation classification that applies a -1 to its 4th and 5th gen jets. The PLAAF's understanding of fighter generation is otherwise nearly identical to the USAF's.
---------
It is you who needs a reality check.

The reality, based on best available evidence, is that China's 6th gen prototypes flew first, have a likely 5 year lead vs the US program, and convincingly demonstrate 6th gen expected feature which Boeing's render so far does not.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

First, any rendering is propaganda, but if the "White House" and "Air force" still adopt such an "informal" attitude when it is officially announced, it is difficult to imagine what "NGAD will be coming soon" means? After all, if it is confirmed that this aircraft exists or the design is finalized, only a few programmers are needed, and the White House can obtain a real and reliable "rendering" rather than an artist's imagination.Imagine how frustrating it is for a company to only deliver an "artistic rendering" to the client after 10 years of preparation for the project. The former Secretary of the Air Force’s reasons for delaying NGAD did not include “only” “artistic renderings.” Now that the money is ready, where are the "blueprints" for our aircraft?

When the USAF announced the B21 contract to Northrop Grumman they did not cut to a roll out or a photo. They also showed a CGI rendering that had some differences from the final product. So yes it can change.
The primary purpose wasn’t to show the product but announce the contract.

Second, we seem to have heard the definition of "quick" at the T7 launch conference. Boeing has spent three years just processing a few details. How can digital twin and digital design be so fast? The F35 has been waiting on the tarmac of Lockheed Martin for a year. Can Boeing surpass the speed of the F35? After all, even with digital design, Boeing can only provide "artist renderings" rather than real photos of the digital design demonstrator

X35 was not F35 much of the computerized development only began becoming available in the last few years it took a decade for F35 to transition from flight demonstration to actual fighter.
T7 was a boner on Boeing in timeline absolutely. Of course it didn’t help that the whole world took a year off due to Covid.
What has flown was a demonstration aircraft that tested elements of the concept from Boeing but may not even resemble the final product. So yeah. Again what was happening was the contract.

Third, demonstrators or early prototypes do not need to add all sensor windows, nor do they need to perform oil drain tests. Moreover, digital twins and digital design do not seem to be difficult for Chinese programmers. There is no need to brag. If Chinese designers follow realistic aircraft manufacturing principles, they will produce 3-5 prototypes and gradually add test projects. It is difficult to imagine that Boeing will be able to catch up with this progress when the first prototype takes off four years later. If the progress of T7 is estimated, Mr. Trump needs to start his third term to obtain F47.

This is making a number of assumptions as to the time scale. It also assumes that whatever rolls out would be an X47 and not a YF47. The game plan seems to be looking to use the same model you are claiming the Chinese are. Of course there are aspects where in the U.S. is likely ahead that may make F47 better or worse on timeline. Even if F47 is slower than the Chinese options if it has the better technology then it may still edge China out.

Also Trump can’t have a third term without a constitutional amendment which unlike with Russia or China isn’t as easy a thing to do.

This is the only thing I agree with. Generation fighter is indeed a marketing term rather than an accurate military term.
But there's still some boomerang damage to be done before that happens: What's the cost of a canard?

In terms of RCS? About the same as a horizontal stabilizer. Of course that assumes a joint and seem. Boeing was working on developing an alternative aero elastic flight control surfaces technology that may make that irrelevant or again it may be that the Canards are a canard. (Pun sooo intended!!)

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

Absolutely nothing you said here is a "reality check." Rather they are your baseless assumptions that in many cases going against available evidence.

This is your baseless assumption. No evidence whatsoever that the F-47 will look any different from the official, USAF and POTUS endorsed image.

Yes. Just as we have whole pages now talking about glass less cockpits. We have an image and that’s all we have.

Boeing's CG by itself doesn't prove anything. But combined with the official CG point to Boeing's active research in the tailess canard configuration.

Yes they did work on a tailless canard based demonstration aircraft they also worked on Pelican tails, areoelestic controls, flying wings, thrust vectoring. With no guarantee any of it is relevant.

It's your assumption that digital twins will help Boeing design the NGAD faster. This is in fact contradicted by Boeing's work with the T-7A, where digital designs caused crippling delays on a simple, low risk trainer program.

Yes it could or could not. We know Boeing and LM were claimed to have done demonstration flights that’s all we have.

Your assumption again. The J-20 for example went from the 2011 EMD prototype to IOC in about 4 years. Given that according to USAF's optimistic projection that the F-47 will have its first flight towards the end of Trump's presidency in 2029, its varnishingly unlikely for it to catch up with J-36.

This is a huge assumption on your end. That the J36 by the definition meets the same criteria and that the two are mutually counter to each other.

"Most of what makes a 5th generation is avionics." -- Wrong

No no I am not. You have not give a statement as to how I am wrong so I will. The two factors most count as optional are Super cruise and super maneuverability. The next is reduced radar cross section. These three are present on any number of “fourth generation” fighters. The F117 is not a Fifth generation fighter by any means yet it is stealth. The Su35 is highly maneuverable yet It is not a fifth generation no matter how hard the Russians tried to market it. The Rafael comes close though.
the ones that really nail it are advanced data links, low probability of interception radar, integrated electronic warfare capabilities all of which fall under Avionics.

You are also obfuscating between a legitimate debate on the proper delineation of fighter generation with PLAAF's quirky internal fighter generation classification that applies a -1 to its 4th and 5th gen jets.

No I am pointing out that we still have no clear definition of 6th Generation and what it in tails .

------
It is you who needs a reality check.

The reality, based on best available evidence, is that China's 6th gen prototypes flew first, have a 2 to 5 year lead vs the US program, and convincingly demonstrate 6th gen expected feature which Boeing's render so far does not.

I would agree with this with the caveat that as far as we can see though at this stage we have not Seen a solid definition of 6th generation aircraft from China. As such at this point well J36 may be a concept for one or even more so J50.
They are at best 5th generation aircraft. Until and unless other technologies are demonstrated. They may lack tails or be flying wings but there have been other demonstration projects that do that too.
On the U.S. Side two technologies seem to be in focus for 6th generation definition.
An almost entirely digital design approach.
AI integration including cyber fusion, cyber warfare, Manned unmanned teaming.
Optionally manned
Augmented reality interfaces.
Variable cycle engine technology.
Now it’s true in 2022 USAF General Mark Kelly indicated that from his intelligence the Chinese programs were looking in a similar way to the USAF. So it is possible that a finalized J36 or J59 would be 6th generation but atleast on the engine side China has had a lot of problems. Getting the rest?
Again almost all of this is avionics.

 

[MC530]

When the USAF announced the B21 contract to Northrop Grumman they did not cut to a roll out or a photo. They also showed a CGI rendering that had some differences from the final product. So yes it can change.
The primary purpose wasn’t to show the product but announce the contract.

B21 did not show any officially designated "artistic renderings" when announcing the contract. These are two completely different things: showing the wrong rendering or keeping it secret and not showing the rendering.

X35 was not F35 much of the computerized development only began becoming available in the last few years it took a decade for F35 to transition from flight demonstration to actual fighter.
T7 was a boner on Boeing in timeline absolutely. Of course it didn’t help that the whole world took a year off due to Covid.
What has flown was a demonstration aircraft that tested elements of the concept from Boeing but may not even resemble the final product. So yeah. Again what was happening was the contract.

This is not a story about the X35 and F35, although that story tells us that the JSF project could have been in a much worse timeline. The F35 was delayed for a year on the tarmac just for a software upgrade. I hope the code of the F47 will not be more like a pile of shit than the F35. Digital design or digital twins and so on are all great until they take a tumble on the tarmac.
Your requirements are really low. The T7A is a lightweight, non-stealthy, simple trainer aircraft. Boeing still intends to delay it until 2026. Will we get a new wave of COVID-19 in 2025? I hope the old T38 can forgive you.

This is making a number of assumptions as to the time scale. It also assumes that whatever rolls out would be an X47 and not a YF47. The game plan seems to be looking to use the same model you are claiming the Chinese are. Of course there are aspects where in the U.S. is likely ahead that may make F47 better or worse on timeline. Even if F47 is slower than the Chinese options if it has the better technology then it may still edge China out.

Also Trump can’t have a third term without a constitutional amendment which unlike with Russia or China isn’t as easy a thing to do.

According to the efficiency of T7A, without the third term, there would be no F47. Mr. Trump will likely be disappointed.
As for whether the F47 is better, we can look forward to it, but it will take more time - much longer than the J36 or whatever the name of the Chinese new generation fighter is.

In terms of RCS? About the same as a horizontal stabilizer. Of course that assumes a joint and seem. Boeing was working on developing an alternative aero elastic flight control surfaces technology that may make that irrelevant or again it may be that the Canards are a canard. (Pun sooo intended!!)

This may be the case in the future .In any case no canard or tail is more "low detectable" than a high tech canard. This is the difference between 0 and 1——————But it's duck time now, let's enjoy

 

[ougoah]

What is so confusing for people across the internet (which I see being repeated albeit more eloquently here).

5th gen by China's definition is equal to 6th gen by US definition or their respective designation of fighter generations. This means the Su-27, J-11, J-11A, Su-30MKK, Su-30MK2, J-11B, J-11BS, J-15, J-16, J-16D, J-10, J-10A, J-10B, J-10C, Su-35 are all considered by PLAAF to be "3rd generation" by China's designation. J-20 and J-35 are "4th generation". This doesn't translate to being 3rd and 4th generation respectively when discussed using US designation of fighter generations. Indeed Terran Empire is trying to obfuscate this for what purpose I really do not know since SDF is thankfully one small corner of the military watching internet (in English) that approaches most of these dialogues with due respect. BTW this difference in designation mostly stems from China having started fielding fighters an entire generation late back in the early to mid 20th century.

Calling a J-20 a 4th generation by whatever designation doesn't change what the J-20 is. Copers can cling to semantics if that is what they want but I dunno what that sort of "argument making" is doing here on SDF.

Second thing discussed on the internet is what makes a 6th (by US designation of generations) generation?... very fucking simple. Whatever is "superseding" the F-22s, J-20s, J-35s, F-35s, Su-57s of the world. It's that fucking simple. By this measure, J-36 and J-50 are both 6th generation fighters (The Chinese will refer to them as 5th generation based on Chinese designation of fighter generation).

We can go further and talk about attributes for 6th generation but these aren't defined and that's where the whole "it's all marketing" legitimately can come into the dialogue. With China's 6th generation fighters, it's clearly at least the following qualities:

• Enhanced comprehensive stealth
• Incorporate latest technologies available from the 2010s era - avionics, sensors, computing, materials etc.
• Longer range
• Better networked
• Ability to use next generation weapons which may have been designed concurrently or after these fighters ie not necessarily able to be used with J-20 and J-35

There is of course a lot more to how each of these points manifest. E.g. they might have had to sacrifice turning performance to improve stealth this much further. They might have needed to add an additional engine to achieve required kinematic performance and power the EW suite. Lots and lots of fine details we simply can't speculate but we see the outward shape and can say it is quite a departure from previous generations at least in looks. An F-22 is far closer in looks to a F-15 than a J-36/J-50 is to a J-20 etc.

And the last stupid point that is still stumbling copers across the internet - muh 6th gen flew first.

China had up to 8 (that's been talked about) X planes that flew between 2018 and 2021 (so it is said... who knows what actual years) and the J-36 and J-50 that are flying are ... repeat after me... PROTOTYPES ...not X planes or demonstrators or scaled models or whatever semantics copers are adopting. They are prototypes if not pre-production prototypes performing fuel dump demonstrations in public FFS. That is how much the CPC is willing to show the Americans. They've literally never bluffed weapons acquisitions in the past. Give me one example where the CPC showed more than it had, demonstrated live empty shells. Every single instance from hypersonic gliders to rotating detonation engines have been show and talk less than you have in the hangars. When they run the test, the thing is real, it's not a cardboard cutout intended to sink the US into some financial strife by chasing a mystery superweapon. Granted the USSR have sort of done similar in the past and the US certainly has to the USSR (Reagan's star wars), China has not demonstrated this in its playbook.

These things are performing fuel dump to tell the US, we are actually beyond 5 years ahead in terms of getting these things into production for PLAAF. It is a boast for certain. It is a chest thump. It is not a bluff though. China is holding the nuts and trying to get the US away from going all in which would hurt both sides - kinetic war. The US copers, NAFO simply cannot cognitively even embrace the possibility that others are capable. Chinese are dumb thieves that's what they only ever be. No other quality in the common American ensures its hegemonic decline more than this ironic tendency toward arrogance and refusal to see reality.

This isn't to say China is lapping the US. It has merely caught up and working simply at China speeds hence the relative pace of programs. An engagement would absolutely wreck both sides, something China is more than keen to avoid though simply because China wins long, China wins mid and both die short.

What the Americans flew are X planes. This has been fucking confirmed by the US state and USAF (or pentagon forget which one). How much more obvious can it be that the F-47 contract is for the completion of the program and delivering prototypes is not something that has occured. The competing contractors have delivered and flown several X planes. This is something China did many years back as well. How could you compare the timelines of the programs by claiming J-36 and J-50 are X plane/ demonstrators and since they were recorded flying in 2024 that means the circa 2020 US X planes flying means the US is roughly 5 years ahead. The opposite is true and this would be using snapshot while ignoring development rates.

 

[ougoah]

I have also noticed that vitriol seems directly proportional to how far behind the cheerleaders' own national 5th/6th gen program is at (except for Indians... a surprising fact). Americans just aren't used to being caught up and having peers. Sorry to tell you (actually most of you Sinophiles here are going to love this)... but China is on its way to surpassing the US in just about every single important, worthwhile, strategic aspect. All the hard ones go first, then the soft ones follow. That's the rule of nature. Hollywood and American softpower will be one of the last to be surpassed but that nonsense was never truly important despite appearances.

The components were built in the 1970s, in place since the 1990s, the trajectory determined, aimed and fired in the 2000s, the rest is physics. China won years ago. It's just not apparent to the "dumb money" yet. The US has been de-industrialised for far too long and way too comfortable, soft and dependent. Most people are fine folks albeit arrogant more often than not but with Trump gutting the US even further, the same folks that have the critical mass to turn it all around are often the same folks supporting the continued disassembly. They may not know it but their attitudes show. On this very topic, online attitudes from those who are incredibly naive to everything military to those flying in the USAF all still follow this blind dogma. Ironically contributing to their own undoing.

J-36, J-50 prototype test flights and F-47 program winner announcement has basically killed the Su-75, an otherwise pretty 2D concept plane with a 3D mockup display. Vitriol from some subsets of Russian nationalists/chauvinists/stronkists, has reached incredible heights on the J-36 and J-50. Doubling down on the Su-57 being the supreme fighter humanity has ever assembled. At least with how the AMCA is going, the Su-57 might win an Indian Airforce purchase... in which case, China may make a small batch purchase once IAF take delivery.

 

[zhangjim]

What the Americans flew are X planes. This has been fucking confirmed by the US state and USAF (or pentagon forget which one). How much more obvious can it be that the F-47 contract is for the completion of the program and delivering prototypes is not something that has occured. The competing contractors have delivered and flown several X planes. This is something China did many years back as well. How could you compare the timelines of the programs by claiming J-36 and J-50 are X plane/ demonstrators and since they were recorded flying in 2024 that means the circa 2020 US X planes flying means the US is roughly 5 years ahead. The opposite is true and this would be using snapshot while ignoring development rates.

On the Chinese side, the attitude towards the F-47 is highly consistent: with Trump's personality, if there really is such a thing, he will immediately show it to everyone (even if it is just a model). We will not discuss a CG image on the poster. Only planes that actually exist (i.e. can be seen) have value.

 

[Atomicfrog]

I have also noticed that vitriol seems directly proportional to how far behind the cheerleaders' own national 5th/6th gen program is at (except for Indians... a surprising fact). Americans just aren't used to being caught up and having peers. Sorry to tell you (actually most of you Sinophiles here are going to love this)... but China is on its way to surpassing the US in just about every single important, worthwhile, strategic aspect. All the hard ones go first, then the soft ones follow. That's the rule of nature. Hollywood and American softpower will be one of the last to be surpassed but that nonsense was never truly important despite appearances.

The components were built in the 1970s, in place since the 1990s, the trajectory determined, aimed and fired in the 2000s, the rest is physics. China won years ago. It's just not apparent to the "dumb money" yet. The US has been de-industrialised for far too long and way too comfortable, soft and dependent. Most people are fine folks albeit arrogant more often than not but with Trump gutting the US even further, the same folks that have the critical mass to turn it all around are often the same folks supporting the continued disassembly. They may not know it but their attitudes show. On this very topic, online attitudes from those who are incredibly naive to everything military to those flying in the USAF all still follow this blind dogma. Ironically contributing to their own undoing.

J-36, J-50 prototype test flights and F-47 program winner announcement has basically killed the Su-75, an otherwise pretty 2D concept plane with a 3D mockup display. Vitriol from some subsets of Russian nationalists/chauvinists/stronkists, has reached incredible heights on the J-36 and J-50. Doubling down on the Su-57 being the supreme fighter humanity has ever assembled. At least with how the AMCA is going, the Su-57 might win an Indian Airforce purchase... in which case, China may make a small batch purchase once IAF take delivery.

Still Russian are also working on their ''6th gen'' with PAKDP, I could say they are at more or less the same level of advancement than US in that regard. The industry side of things is lacking quite a bit tho.