(Un)veiled threats: The "quiet neutralization" of China´s nuclear deterrent.
- Thread starter Violet Oboe
- Start date
China should have no problem expanding it deterrent to match. the space program has taken a back seat as scientist are moved to ICBM development. anyway, i don't think China is far too concern, it isn't like war is on the horizon.
also, i am not impressed with the NMD; it isn't proven technology.
also, i am not impressed with the NMD; it isn't proven technology.
Violet Oboe
Junior Member
Current edition of IISS ´Military Balance´reports that PLA has deployed six DF-31 last year.
Rather a puny force but probably this will be only the beginning (...or the IISS geniusses have left a zero out. :roll
.
Rather a puny force but probably this will be only the beginning (...or the IISS geniusses have left a zero out. :roll
.
Now that the Type 094 cannot be denied, China has gone a long way towards building a major, credible nuclear deterent. Many or even most of the world's major powers are expanding their nuclear arsenals lately, at a time when they should be slimming them down. China is actually the opposite of this; it would make the world more secure for China to have a slightly larger nuclear arsenal to prevent "misunderstandings" as discribed above.
This is neither here nor there but I believe that weapons capable enrichment technology should be banned in all countries that do not have it yet, tactical nukes should be banned and nations should have their nuclear arsenals strictly regulated by a Washington Conference-style treaty.
This is neither here nor there but I believe that weapons capable enrichment technology should be banned in all countries that do not have it yet, tactical nukes should be banned and nations should have their nuclear arsenals strictly regulated by a Washington Conference-style treaty.
sinowarrior
Junior Member
20ish DF-5 figure has been used for more than 20 years now, and with the current modernization of army, land and airforce, i found this figure highly doubtful, there is no difficulty in producing those DF-5 since the entire CZ-2 is based on this system, and yet for the past 20 years, the number is still the same.
Violet Oboe
Junior Member
Actually the current estimations about PLA's force of DF-5A appear to be quite accurate since there are as Dongfeng has correctly described on sinodefence.com probably between 30 and 36 units deployed (...there are rumours that fewer nuclear warheads than missiles are deployed so western analysts discount the respective systems and put the ´real´number at ´around 20´; my 2 cents is that I would not bet half of that sum on those stories!).
During the 80's and until the mid 90's western intelligence expected that China would expand her DF-5/5A force continuously in the direction of 50 or even 100 deployed missiles and would also have MIRV'ed them around the turn of the century. This assumptions have been obviously proved wrong because the chinese leadership decided not to waste resources on a cumbersome and possibly unreliable ICBM (liquid fuel!) additionally highly vulnerable to premptive attacks on its silos and compromised prepared launching sites.
Correspondingly Second Artillery used the DF-5A only for establishing a token minimal deterrence force during an admittedly extended transitional phase until a system with real second strike capabilities became finally available (DF-31/31A) in '06.
The DF-5 ICBM was a major technological feat for China back in the 80's and has served her limited purpose well but the missile is completely obsolete by modern standards and China will probably phase them out during the next five years just as Russia will do the same with her last liquid fueled ICBM's. :coffee:
). During the 80's and until the mid 90's western intelligence expected that China would expand her DF-5/5A force continuously in the direction of 50 or even 100 deployed missiles and would also have MIRV'ed them around the turn of the century. This assumptions have been obviously proved wrong because the chinese leadership decided not to waste resources on a cumbersome and possibly unreliable ICBM (liquid fuel!) additionally highly vulnerable to premptive attacks on its silos and compromised prepared launching sites.
Correspondingly Second Artillery used the DF-5A only for establishing a token minimal deterrence force during an admittedly extended transitional phase until a system with real second strike capabilities became finally available (DF-31/31A) in '06.
The DF-5 ICBM was a major technological feat for China back in the 80's and has served her limited purpose well but the missile is completely obsolete by modern standards and China will probably phase them out during the next five years just as Russia will do the same with her last liquid fueled ICBM's. :coffee:
The primary purpose of the nuclear weapon is to PREVENT wars.
China needs a reliable delivery method for its nuclear warheads. I know the 094 and DF-31 has been mentioned...but these should just be the beginning steps. Guarantee of a second strike capability is crucial for survival in this crazily mad world we live in...
Having said that, I dont think China should expand its nuclear arsenal anymore than it needs to. Having the minimal deterrence is enough.
China needs a reliable delivery method for its nuclear warheads. I know the 094 and DF-31 has been mentioned...but these should just be the beginning steps. Guarantee of a second strike capability is crucial for survival in this crazily mad world we live in...
Having said that, I dont think China should expand its nuclear arsenal anymore than it needs to. Having the minimal deterrence is enough.
Asymptote
Banned Idiot
Incase you guys missed this, but Lockheed Martin just announced that its team tested a key element of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency's revolutionary Multiple Kill Vehicle
It means, that all the previous posters stating MIRV can defeat the National Missile Defence are WRONG. It will make US capable of launching nuclear attacks with impunity without fearing of reprisal.
Please do not use red print. This is reserved for moderators
bd popeye super moderator
It means, that all the previous posters stating MIRV can defeat the National Missile Defence are WRONG. It will make US capable of launching nuclear attacks with impunity without fearing of reprisal.
Please do not use red print. This is reserved for moderators
bd popeye super moderator
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sinowarrior
Junior Member
thats a big if, still those systems are not perfect and any failure will be the death to millions, it is unlikely as what you said that us is going to lauch nuclear attacks without fear of reprisal at least not against major nuclear powers anyway.
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RedMercury
Junior Member
Therefore China is completely justified in upgrading its military and all complaints should be sent to /dev/null?