(Un)veiled threats: The "quiet neutralization" of China´s nuclear deterrent.

tphuang

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not to beat a dead horse, but I found an interesting article reported on the accuracy of DF-5. This claims that in 1980, they conducted a DF-5 testing which showed that it has a CEP of 250 m after travelling 9000 km.

you can check it here, but this is the relevant section.
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1980年5月18日上午10时,第一枚洲际导弹顺利发射,并以超出音速20倍的速度向预定海域疾飞。
“雷达、遥测、经纬仪发现目标。”大约半个小时后,远洋测量船传来激动人心的消息。不一会,一个亮点钻出云层。

  亮点越来越大,在距离海面还有几千米高度时,装有导弹飞行重要参数的数据舱,自动从导弹头部射出,打开降落伞,徐徐飘落洋面。荧光染色剂把湛蓝的海水染得翠绿。
  各个环节立即忙碌起来。直升机迅速测出数据舱的坐标,早在附近待命的我导弹驱逐舰和一艘快艇立刻向落区开进。正在空中盘旋的打捞直升机接到打捞船长的命令,掉转机头飞向落点,垂直悬停在离洋面30米的空中。

  钢索吊着海军潜水员刘志勇徐徐下降。他一手抓住吊钩,一手奋力击水,几下便抓住了数据舱。整个打捞过程只用了5分20秒。
 就在数据舱被弹出的同时,火箭弹头发着极其耀眼的光芒,一头扎进海里。随即,海水像开了锅似的沸腾起来,水蒸气随着激起的近200米高、直径约30米的水柱一起升高,形成一个庞大的水蒸气雾团,壮观的景象像原子弹爆炸后形成的蘑菇云一般。8公里以外的一艘拖船被巨浪掀得倾斜近50度。
 与此同时,4艘测量船向指挥部报告了落点。经计算,落点误差只有250米,远远低于导弹研制部门提出的两公里的误差指标。从我国西北边陲大漠起飞,到南太平洋孤海溅落,对飞行9000余公里的洲际导弹来说,这种射击精度,相当于步枪击中千米之外的一个乒乓球,或用手枪击中百米之外的一只蚊子。
This was posted on China Youth Daily in June of 2002.
 

wdl1976

New Member
"Currently the Central Peoples Bank of China owns a forex reserve of 951 bn $ which is swelling by more than 20 bn $ a month"

Why are they saving so much money...wuts it for...



It is not saving, it arises out of the trade surplus, it is mostly showing how much money China earned from exporting goods.

At the moment China is pegging down the currency exchange, so you can imagine if the Central government decides to release the currency to free floating. RMB can shoot to the roof.

Anyway from what I can see this saving can ( I am not saying it would or it is practical etc etc ) be used to crush US economy.

A simple thoughtful opinion, if US dollar ceased to be an international currency.

US will go broke 5 times over. I think that what is meant by 350 bilion dollar equals to 350 nuclear missiles.

(SORRY FOR BEING OFF TOPIC BUT THIS IS MOST INTERESTING)
 

jwangyue

Junior Member
To be honest. I have to agree with wdl1976. It is unimaginable what would happen if China relased all his US reserve into the market.

Foreign reverse is used to soften to blow to domestic currency on the international forex market when there is a systemic speculative attack on the domestic currency. Right now most of Chinese's foreign reverse is going into US treasury debt, which does not pay a very good yield. Instead, maybe they should thinking about owning some US equity instead.
 

SampanViking

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Ah but debt is debt and is largely secured by US Corporation owned Fixed assets in China. The bonds are deeds which cannot be lightly ignored, unless the US wishes its Credit Rating to fall to Angolan. Somalie or Congolese Levels.

Fixed Assets in the US can be vulnerable to various unrecoverable calamities, whilst the current US Real Estate markets seem to be in decline. I think continue to hold the dollars.
 

wdl1976

New Member
Although I am not a favourite of keeping reserves in another currency.

Say another "human rights issue" arises US can easily freeze all of PRC asset, which will be followed by EU (Depends on France feeling at that moment cause UK will definitely follow US instruction)

I would favour something more concrete, such as gold.

As we know gold reserve around the world has decrease substantially. Production is minimal, consumption is high, demand is strong. (take a look at the gold price for the last ten years)

Therefore minimising the danger of assets being frozen by foreign government.
On the other hand with the influx of foreign investments means that China has more bargaining chip, if they freeze foreign assets, foreign companies could go into uproar and in any "democratic government" the political system is supported by enterprises. There will be an uproar, with the size of China military intervention possibility would be the last option.

Governments can be toppled that way

What do you think ???
 

kunmingren

Junior Member
To be honest. I have to agree with wdl1976. It is unimaginable what would happen if China relased all his US reserve into the market.

Foreign reverse is used to soften to blow to domestic currency on the international forex market when there is a systemic speculative attack on the domestic currency. Right now most of Chinese's foreign reverse is going into US treasury debt, which does not pay a very good yield. Instead, maybe they should thinking about owning some US equity instead.

here is the thing, US wont let China invest in anything but its bond. American want China to buy US products (but not high tech), and it wont let China use the Currency Reserve to buy anything else. Thats why CNOOC wasnt able to buy Unocol.
 

Kilo636

Banned Idiot
No one will ever try to play around with Nuke. No matter how good is your defense against nuclear missiles attack, you wouldn't also want to try it out!

Just like wearing a bullet proof vest,any sane human also wouldn't want to try it out with a real gun.

The chances of China being black mail by US is still very distance.
 

RedMercury

Junior Member
That may be the reality, but (geo)politics is a lot about perception. It doesn't take much "crazy" to bluff. How much "crazy" does it take to call the "bluff"? How much "crazy" does it take to carry out the threat when it is called to maintain a reputation? At each step the next small step might seem small, as the costs of previous decisions are sunk, but the end result is unthinkable.
 
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Kilo636

Banned Idiot
That may be the reality, but (geo)politics is a lot about perception. It doesn't take much "crazy" to bluff. How much "crazy" does it take to call the "bluff"? How much "crazy" does it take to carry out the threat when it is called to maintain a reputation? At each step the next small step might seem small, as the costs of previous decisions are sunk, but the end result is unthinkable.

I second that! If that is the case, nuclear war between Soviet and US would have started long time ago!
When comes to annihilation,leader of a country is still very rational.
Even when comes to Iran leadership with regards to nuclear usage, they will also be clear headed on this issue!
 

Violet Oboe

Junior Member
The rules of the game stay forever the same!:D

Just suppose two boys who have only learned the rules recently playing Go (Weiqi) against each other. Of course their game will just be horrific and determined by bad moves and bad luck but the two novices will use the same rules, same pieces, same board and hopefully the same spirit of honourable competition as 9th dan champions Chang Hao (常昊) and Lee ChangHo who are currently playing in the finals of the 11th Samsung Cup (mixed amateur/pro k.o. system tournament in Korea).

The situation regarding nuclear strategy is completely analogous:
It simply does not matter whether Mahmoud Ahmadinejad believes in resurrection of his beloved 12th Imam, Kim Jong Il is an obnoxious dwarf, George W. Bush a never grown up boy who needs to be advised by ´daddies men´even after turning sixty.

Nuclear weapons impose unbreakable strategic rules on human leaders regardless of their ideology or personal capabilities since everyone with a sane mind knows that the consequences of nuclear war (e. g. even a limited regional war between India and Pakistan with 100 nuke detonations would result in a global catastrophe killing hundreds of millions) are unbearable.

Everyone who talks in ignorance about Iran, North Korea or Pakistan should be aware that the leaders of the ´rogues´ know perfectly about the rules of the game but unfourtunately looking at guys like Bush jr. or Olmert having doubts about their proficiency is completely justified. China must take irrational moves of western leaders into account since perceived nuclear superiority could lead them to believe that by bullying and blackmailing China they can have their will like in the old days of the Arrow War.Only building up a position of unassailable but also moderate strength will be able to prevent US adventurism. (Your moves against a grandmaster are certainly much less aggressive and far more cautious than against an amateur player for whom you bear no respect! :D )
 
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