Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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Cmon, UKR is fighting bravely in Twitter universe, they are much better than Russians when Americans are awake, they could’ve won the war already if Americans don’t sleep
Russia could just use artillery or air attacks to blast them out. And guess how many other troops in NATO currently would be available for deployment against Russia in case they decided to do a counter strike? Right. Real smart.
These guys are delusional. How many US troops were in the ground on China when Japan surrendered? There were Chinese and Soviet troops. No US troops. Typical US WW2 mythology at play again.
Except the Russians never claimed such a thing. It is Western press which claims that. The moment I heard Putin's speech on how they were going to de-militarize and de-nazify Ukraine I knew it would never be a short time affair. This requires going after all those individuals with such associations. There is going to be a permanent occupation by Russia of some sort. I have little doubt about it.
Only way war would have been shorter would have been if the Ukrainian government capitulated and allowed Russian security forces to go in and supervise de-nazification and de-militarization process. Since they aren't doing it, this will continue, and Russia will install a new government if necessary.
Part of their column also overran Kherson. Some are surrounding Kherson and cleaning it up. The others went ahead and are in the process of encircling Mykolayev as we speak. The advance of that spearhead is getting ever closer to Odessa.
Odessa is probably going to be another focus of hard resistance just like Kharkiv or Mariupol. Since these are cities with large Russian populations they have neo-Nazi elements in there to control the Russian ethnic population. Those guys won't surrender and may threaten the civilian population before they are eliminated.
The advances of LPR and DPR are not being supported with Russian Federation forces. I think this is on purpose to create a situation on the ground where the LPR and DPR can claim that territory later. As Russian Federation forces strike those Ukrainian Army units from other directions they will eventually either retreat or the Russian Federation and LPR/DPR units will link up and crush them.
I see you don't remember those pictures of US supply columns on fire in Iraq 2003.
And Iraq was not as liberally supplied with AT weapons.
They are probably just manning the border in case Ukraine decides to send any forces from Western Ukraine into Belarus to disrupt Russian supply line.
Did you see the Iskander strikes on the Ukrainian military headquarters and their ammo dumps? Any missile artillery has potential for duds or the wrong coordinates might have been input. No weapon works correctly 100% of the time.
Putin gave the oligarchs, I think it was 2 years ago, a fiscal pardon if they sent their ill gotten gains back into Russia. He also created two special economic zones with banks with special guarantees and asked for them to park their money there. If they ignored his advice, that is their own problem. BTW that was the second time the Russian government issued a fiscal pardon. And they said they were not considering doing another one in the foreseeable future when the second round happened.
My main concern is that Russia will not properly take advantage of their wins on the field and press them diplomatically. I think they should split Novorossiya from the rest of Ukraine and make it into a rump state. Otherwise this will just happen again in the future once Ukraine gets emboldened by US wins elsewhere just like what happened with Finland in the Winter War and Continuation War.
The thing is, Russia has been sanctioned to hell and back, and the US like usual will never rollback the sanctions. So they should just press for the maximal position they can.
Russia will only lose if they make a poor diplomatic deal. Which they might since Russians were never terribly good at gaining the upper hand in diplomatic agreements.
They are still waiting for NATO.
If they go into the open they will have to surrender or be destroyed by air strikes. So they use these Hamas like tactics instead.
And this is one of the largest armies in Europe and Europe's 2nd largest country after Russia.
Poland, NATO's supposed bullwark against Russia, has a weaker army and smaller air force than the Ukrainians.
China should ask for nuclear submarine technology. Namely the Yasen. Then crank it up like dumplings at the new facilities.
Yeah. The only real alternative that would sustain our current lifestyle would be massive long term investment into nuclear power. But the elites aren't interested and the public has been brainwashed against it. Any way you slice it, renewables can't do this. They are better than nothing but we will have to massively reduce our energy footprint or reduce our population for renewables to work. That is the plan of the elites anyway, to reduce the population so they can hoard more of the resources for themselves.
I think the elite are fools since wealth is created by people. No amount of robots will replace human creativity, ingenuity, or drive.
It seems like a clean hit on a government building. If that was the target a non-guided MRLS round wouldn't be that accurate.
The US razed all government buildings in Baghdad including the Ministry of Health but I didn't see much complaining done about it.
I am sure a lot of ordinary Russians are deriving satisfaction from the plight of this scum. That alone might give Putin a majority again.
Zubr was being produced in a shipyard in Crimea. Guess who controls Crimea now. As for the engines it uses the Russians at Salyut have a replacement the M70FRU I think. Al-222 also produced in Russia. Al-25TLK has similar power level to more modern Saturn AL-55.
China got the J-15 prototype from Ukraine because they did not want to pay Russia to buy two dozen Su-33s to get the technology.
There is still some other technology left in Ukraine that would be of interest to China like D-136, D-436, D-18T engines. But with modern Chinese jet engine technology advancing so quickly, it can be argued it would be faster to just develop their own engine. Russia is already deep into PD-12V, PD-8, PD-35 engine development which are more modern engines with similar power level.
D-136, D-436, and D-18T would also need modernization since they are basically 1980s era engines.
Ukraine wasn't sharing their technology with China anymore since US was in charge.
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Putin and Xi know what they're doing and what they want to achieve. My analysis of the current event by simplifying the whole situation is as follows:
Xi knew Putin would enter Ukraine during his winter-Olympics visit as Russia's red line had been crossed (Ukraine attacked Donetsk and Luhansk - that's why majority of Ukraine soldiers are concentrated in those 2 areas). US' forecast about imminent Russia invasion was an order for Zelensky to attack these areas when and how (the methods). But it seemed that he hesitated before Biden pushed him again very hard. Finally Zelensky did it half-heartedly.
Xi & Putin definitely discussed deeply about the attack covering all aspects including leaving Ukraine's infrastructures intact considering its importance as one of the bridges of OBOR. The high-tension strategy Putin applies is, among other things, to force EU to be independent to pursue its own interest and not to wage any war. Hence China didn't evacuate their citizens in advance and also to calm the world. It was true until Putin called Xi.
But they never expect to see the civilized western countries' blatant hypocrisy in front of the whole world by arming the commoners, gaslighting by sending armament, spreading misinformation, banning alternative media, sanctioning Russia's (central) banks etc. The champions of human rights and democracy have shown to the Global South what kind of fascists they are. They do anything even to shoot themselves in the foot just to save their comfortable arses. They genuinely put "rich men love nobody but themselves" into reality. No wonder they live in their own bubble and majority of countries outside western bubble don't condemn Russia.
China & Russia will have to support each other in whatever way for their survival. Many analysts have said that US doesn't have strategy to contain China or has pushed Russia into China's arms. US should have done the reverse Nixon strategy - easier said than done! In fact, asking Russia to be neutral has failed - Russia has its own national interest. US doesn't have any choice but to first subjugate Russia one way or another in order to conquer China.
The collective western has only one binary view of the world - to exploit or to be exploited. They always refer to Thucydides trap. For the Chinese, it's too shallow. They have much deeper and comprehensive experience in the past during the warring periods - supremacy by uniting 7 different powers using strategies including alliances - and more. The difference is that now China is not about uniting the world, it's about great power relationship living harmoniously in win-win co-existence: USA, Russia, EU, China, India & western Asia, Australia & ASEAN, African Union, LatAm and central Asia as neutral countries like bigger Switzerland. Therefore Chinese leadership uses reverse warring period to achieve that goal. Whether it will work or not, time will tell.
Actually, I'm inclined to think: Putin did tell China that he wanted to do something that would involve a lot of troops, but it would be over swiftly, Ukrainian resistance would be feeble, and the big cities would be comparatively safe. But it is clear that Putin will not describe the specifics of the operation. Given that Russia is still the world's second military power, China believes Putin. This is the reason why the Chinese embassy asked the Chinese to mark themselves, they hoping that Russia would avoid danage to the Chinese people when it took over Ukraine. But in fact, the resistance force surpassed the forecast of the Russian army and Putin. China discovered that Russia did not take over all areas swiftly, and the Chinese people might be attacked because of international relations, so the Chinese embassy asked the Chinese people to conceal themselves. But it is still unsure whether the Russian army can stabilize the situation during the short period of concealment. Now the Chinese discover that the amount of time it takes for the Russian army to stabilize the situation has changed from days to weeks, so they have to start evacuation.
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