Ukrainian War Developments

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tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
I expect the Ukrainians to have around 150,000 in regular ground army troops, plus another 110,000 to 120,000 in paramilitary.

So its not really overwhelming when the Russians only sent one third of the 300,000 they have arranged at the borders. The amount of Russians used in the campaign might even left them outnumbered. So what the Russians achieved in days remain remarkable, however, the decision to use only one third was clearly dumb, overestimating themselves while underestimating their opponents. They should have sent the entire invasion army in one time instead of piece and parcel.
I was too pretty surprised that they were overwhelmed so fast. I was expecting this to be more like an WW2 scenario, i was not expecting them to win but that they would keep the Russians out the cities for sometime.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
The same thing was said about the other recent conflicts in Libya, Syria and Azerbaijan. "B-b-b-but this is all propaganda! I swear!"

We are seeing people up in arms with guns, Molotov cocktails, barricades and peaceful resistance after their place has been occupied. The entire western world is supporting the Ukrainians. The Russian troops lack logistics and morale to fight against people that look like them and speak like them.

Pull your heads out of the ground and see what is happening.
What's your evidence that Ukraine is militarily winning this conflict? Are you primarily basing your opinion on the number of drone footage you're enthusiastically showing as proof of Russian military incompetence? Plus the fact that you're Turkish surely can't hide your optimistic assessment and quality of the performance demonstration of your country's drones right?

Unless the Russian forces are being repelled and or in military retreat then your assertion is simply unfounded and not supported by objective analysis of the situation.

We should wait, observe, and take a dispassionate look at the situation before making some wild pronouncements that we may come to regret and bite us back in the end.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
We hold more than 3000 billion dollars in yes american currency. It can be taken with one swoop by Washington D.C.
US treasury bonds are bought and sold on the international bond market, usually via third party intermediaries or holding companies. You can't cancel it because you don't know who owns it. Like stocks.
Got my ass banned 3 years ago on r/geopolitics by posting some positive China articles
Same. I was a perm banned from /r/geopolitics because I was neutral-positive on China. Literally these Westerners can't tolerate the truth or opposite opinion. That sub went downhill as a echo chamber circlejerk.
He could take Ukraine within one day with no casualties and it would still be a fiasco. The only strategic objective he could achieve is a disarmed, neutral Ukraine, and even that looks doubtful now.
Exactly. His best case scenario as reduce Ukraine to Belarus-status with a military-installed puppet regime. Occupation is too costly. The second best scenario is force Zelensky to sign an Unequal treaty.
Who stopped George W. Bush Jr. From exercising the illegal war in Iraq which was and is universally considered by every credible foreign policy and military experts as the greatest strategic Blunder in U.S. history.
George Bush needed to weaponize 9/11 unity to a completely different country using flimsy evidence. So long as China doesn't trigger that type of 9/11 unity by pre-emptively attacking US first (like Osama), then I think China can get away with Taiwan.
I think Russian conditions will be neutrality, written obligation not to join NATO, recognition of independence for Donbas, and recognition of Russian control over Crimea.
really. like... that's a pretty 'meh' result compared to all the shit Russia is going through economically. Might as well annex some territories and also demand neutrality.
There will be no such thing. Russia's aim is to take the entire country and turn it into Belarus. They will change the commanders to ones that are pro-Russian. The rest don't really matter because the military will ensure that the right politicians get elected etc.
This is so smart. I agree 1000% The best scenario is Belarus-puppet ally.
To be honest, those comments are pretty tame compared to what's been said on western social media regarding Ukrainian women.

Still it's a bad sign that CCP seems to be losing the media war on its own turf. On Chinese social media, there were plenty of posters making anti war statements regarding this Russian intervention, but not against previous US interventions. Not to mention, CCTV's official weibo account yesterday made a post about fundraising for supporting Ukrainian resistance, soliciting donations from Chinese public. The level of sheer incompetence is disheartening. After all, PRC government has more or less adopted a neutral stance.
Eastern Europe is not a core area of Chinese interest, and China isn't going to de-couple from West and sign a formal alliance with Russia, so why do censorship to silence anti-war voices? Does Russia do censorship to help Chinese territorial claims in SCS?
I am average Go player (Weiqi or Baduk etc) and about say 20 kyu (percentile wise its about average) and there is this Go AI open sourced called KataGo which is basically already superhuman (11D) on even single GPU hardware (say rtx2080 or above) on normal time limits...

If I play with the intent to win and win as much points as possible, I end up losing a maximum amount of points and will never be able to score a win against the AI not even in a million years...

But although Go like Chess is a win/lose, and pro level often its decided by as little different as half a point (there is really no draw in Go unlike Chess) in Go there is a more granular level of scoring than Chess which is binary (either King is checkmate or it is not, whereas in Go you can lose/win by x amount of points accurate to half a point)

So if I play the AI going in knowing I will never win but playing "safely" and conservatively, if I give up say 10 to 20 points, then I can usually manage to lose the game but with "only" a lose of 10 to 20 points, whereas if I play to win, I end up with often losing 50 or even 100 points (basically majority of the board)...

US is the stronger player for sure against China, but like you said about 围点打援 etc if she brings the fight to China's doorstep and do that Hollywood crap, she will lose badly... (conventionally, not talking about MAD escalation ladder etc)

Geopolitically America is playing a lot of overplay moves that in the long term are all to its detriment, if it were to play more lightly and be less greedy it would actually end up with more points.
Exactly. In other words, US needs to station kajillion CATOBARs and 5th gens in Taiwan region to forever prevent China to invade (again and again and again). It's dumb, US can't think it can win one-off battle, this is a long war and China will just invade again, again, again. It will be like Afghanistan, what is US exit strategy in defending Taiwan? It's either a) Force China to sign unequal treaty relinquish Taiwan forever, or b) Joint ROC-US combined conquest of Mainland. Both are impossible, so even if US can defeat one invasion attempt, another will happen again, and US will overstretch it's imperialism overreach.
No. Any people would learn to love an enemy who didn't torture, oppress, exploit as an foreign conqueror. Let alone how much the US did for Japan. The Japanese economy and industry was literally built from ashes with huge amounts of US capital investments, technological transfers, under the peaceful environment and security provided by the US, with a huge and profitable market access given to them pretty much for free. Besides, the Japanese has no hope of opposing the US anyways, she has has no friendly superpower alternatives to pit the US against.

It would be inhuman for the Japanese to NOT love the USA.
Japan was already developed and industrialized great power before occupation by US. So Japan could have become rich by itself too. How come Phillipines, Thailand, and other US allies did not become rich like Japan?
I don't understand it. Instead of saying this is nothing. it's just western media demonizing China/Chinese people. Why don't you just condemn those 'few comments' so that there are thousands of Chinese voices that's on the right side. Isn't that the more direct and moral thing to do?

I am condemning behavior so clearly and unambiguously wrong. But you think that would lead to Chinese could not speak at all? I understand that there are moral dilemmas and gray zones in this world. But I am smart enough to know making sexual explicit remarks about female Ukraine refugees ain't one.

Isn't that what I did?

You've got to be kidding me! Nathan Chen, a born and bred Chinese American, won a gold for his country. But people on this forum condemned him as a traitor to all Chinese people. Many people gave likes to those posts. somehow that association works? Haven't you seen how some Chinese tourists' behavior in foreign countries can badly damage China's image?

now let's try the opposite side. few Chinese netizens were very thoughtful and supportive to a country that was struck by natural disasters and people from that country were really thankful of them and developed appreciation for all Chinese people. Would I be wrong (or spineless) to think they brought pride to all Chinese people?
If we had to condemn every internet comment, then we will be busy all day. I would suggest not to take anything said on internet seriously. There is 25-30% of the US population that is batshit insane and out-of-touch with reality. Just assume that idiots exist everywhere and your life will be a lot easier. :)
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
All of this is equipment that the Ukrainian military has. Given the paint scheme and those other factors I think this is a Ukrainian military column. I already told you. Regular T-80U tank was put into stockpile by Russians and replaced with T-80BVM. They also wouldn't use vehicles in combat which can be easily mistaken with Ukrainian ones unless they really had to.

Whether the West cuts Russia fully off SWIFT or not, the dye has been cast. Russia and others will introduce an alternative to it. Interesting times ahead.
Russia already has SPFS. It connects Russian banks, the rest of the Eurasian Economic Union, and to banks in China and Cuba.

In 2014, invasion of Crimea, there was real danger because Russian banks all used SWIFT even for national inter bank transactions. All bank cards were VISA and Mastercard. US threatened sanctions. But VISA and Mastercard had 5% revenue on all bank transactions. CIA/NSA could also snoop all Russian bank transactions via SWIFT. So they forced US government officials to back down.

Russia then made the Mir debit card and gave them to all pensioners, public servants (including the military), and made it available to the general public. They made SPFS to replace SWIFT for state banks and later other banks connected to it. The sanctions mean SWIFT will die inside Russia. And for foreign bank transfers not covered with it they will likely use the Chinese payment system. Trade with China will explode. It already increased like 10x over past decade. After this, Russian companies will have no choice but use Chinese system, and be forced to drop their tendency to go for European products.

I am now starting to doubt if Russia can win this militarily. They've already lost politically and soon economically.
Decades pass with nothing happening, then a week passes wherein decades happen. The Cold War is back and it started with a Hot War.
The fact that India did not collapse to US pressure is a good thing. Without India there is no way US has a chance to control world system. As gravity of world economy shifts to Asia, European economy will implode, and will become backwater. Economy is based on selling internal combustion engine vehicles and jet aircraft. European computer industry is mostly gone. Only piece missing is Chinese domination of semiconductor market.

Just let those 5th column oligarchs flee to London then hit the economic reset button.
Russia is if i'm not mistaken food independent, and has its a lot of domestic industries and sectors.
Just like Iran. Russia is food and energy independent.

Russians are complaining Ukrainian armed groups are using mortar attacks on cities and said they aren't using infantry mortars.

The Russians are getting smashed left right and center and the whole of Ukraine is resisting and up in arms. They are losing at least a battalion worth of equipment every day.
:rolleyes:

All due to toy planes. Russian RuAF is trash. Their Air defense units are even more so. I've been drinking in their koolaid for too long. I highly touted them before this war began.
I have seen lots of photos of downed drones. Just ask the Turks how well their drones fared in Libya.

So is North Korea (and so was the USSR). Not a recipe I would want to emulate as an ambitious nation.
North Korea can't feed itself. Due to climate, soil, conditions and lack of resources to make fertilizer.

No, twitter/reddit and Western media is on your side. There's a difference.
And no, it wasn't the case on "Day 1".
You apparently haven't been following the changes on the actual battle map.
Wikipedia even stopped updating the map properly. Kiev is surrounded. They entered Kharkiv and the mayor surrendered.

1646061812531.png

Isn’t that pretty much inevitable due to overwhelming strength?
The Ukrainians have more manpower. It is just that the Russians have better training, equipment, and leadership.
 
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