Ukrainian War Developments

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
An intense MLRS barrage with unguided munitions into urban Kharkiv. This looks quite ugly:
The Russians have guided MLRS too. With 1m precision.

Russia has had plenty of direct or indirect experience with TB2 in Idlib, Libya, Karabakh in 2020. It was an obvious threat since Ukraine bought them, and should have been one of the top Ukrainian capabilities to destroy at the beginning of the conflict. A surprising failure.
They did. But how hard do you think would be to hide a drone in the ground?
There are also rumors they are bringing them in from Poland. AFTER the war started.
If the operators are also in Poland maybe they'll get a present.
 

Mohsin77

Senior Member
Registered Member
Sorry, I did not realize. OK, water treatment plants are off limits. They should not be targeted.

There's also no reason for millions to die to poverty. As for destruction of certain sectors of the economy, it is a military necessity (especially bridges, which you see here that Ukrainians are doing to themselves even). For civilian survival, food and water aid is typically provided (see Iraq 2003, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia).

Okay, that's kool.

It's not a good thing when people start advocating for limitless brutality in order to quickly win a war.

Destroy the enemy's military, that's the operational objective in modern warfare.

Destroying civilians and purely civilian infrastructure is wrong on principle and not required (despite what the Americans did.)
 

tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member

What Russia sells is natural resources, commodities, the most liquid thing in the world. They can sell it in cash, in gold, barter and people will buy it. Cause they need it. Even ISIS was able to sell oil. Russia will sell through third parties who will pay in cash and in turn sell to entities through the banking system. They will just have to provide a discount in oil and gas prices and boom they will sell like hot cakes.

What we will likely see is some short term volatility. But long term Russia will adjust and become even resilient in the process. They still have one of the most self-sufficient industrial bases in the world.

The currency will lose some value which again will lead to higher exports through 3rd parties in a globalized world.

The thing they will lose the most will be arms sales, since that is hardest to do through third parties. But everything commodity based will continue with a discount for sure.
 

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
Kiev can be used as a threat in order to get the Ukrainians into the negotiating table. Do the occasional shelling but don't attack it yet
Ukrainian will fight for a long time under NATO encouragement unless it is deprived of the ability to fight, or it suffers such mass casualties that those not eager to die for ukraine will press for ceasefire because their internal anslysis pegs their own chances of dying at too great a level.

Leaving Kiev as well as most of the country unoccupied is a recipe for indefinite extension of the war by leaving ukraine with both the ability to fight and the room to have that capability sustained by nato, and make it tangible that many ukraians can press for defence of ukraine without being personally much endangered.

Not taking kiev quickly is a strategic setback for russia comparable in effect to hitler’s decision in mid to late summer 1941 to procrastinate till october before driving on Moscow.

it may not be immediately fatal to the entire war effort by itself, but it constricts later options so that odds facing later actions become steeper and a later failure would have much greater negative repercussions. So if the entire effort ultimately fails, one could chase the chain of failure back in time to this event.
 
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WickedhichofWest

New Member
Registered Member
This is exactly what will happen. Sensing money to be made, defence companies will be jumping over one another to make the most out of the situation. Countries will double each other's RnD spendings like crazy. How many different APC/IFVs does Europe have right now? Like 15? They were making Eurofighters. France removed itself to make Rafale, and then they still had to buy F-35s and Super Hornets. On top of that you have to account for the differences in purchasing power. AND the constant need to increase social spending due to ageing population, AND the economic impact cutting off Russia will have... Good luck to us...
Politicians in EU are easy to buy, see Sputnik vaccine veto and billions given to the USA companies.
 
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