Ukrainian War Developments

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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Putin has lost in some aspects, no matter how this war might end.
1. He might conquer Ukraine with heavy losses but he has lost the Ukrainians forever(their hearts)
That isn't a loss since they were already gone and increasingly being radicalized. They were shelling Russian speakers and committing atrocities on Russian speakers in their own territory. This is like saying China should have just let the terrorists in Xinjiang go their own way. Any fool will see this is a bad proposition.

2. After his criminal attack NATO is more united then ever before. More nations want to join because they don't want to get annexed by Putin who suddenly claims the right to decide which nations have a right to exist and which not
NATO started this by making a coup in Ukraine. And those other nations have already been annexed by the West and have been effectively de-industrialized and turned into Western client states. Did you know Poland used to make their own computers and TVs?
They assembled large civilian aircraft like the Il-86. All those facilities are closed. Only factories left are German factories where Poles work manufacturing German cars. As for Ukraine just this year they dismantled the last crane on the largest shipyard in Ukraine. You know the one which built the hull of what is now the Liaoning.

3. Russian economic collapse due to sanctions
The Russian economy will suffer but the sanctions would come anyway.
The US has been sanctioning Russia since 2006 with Magnitski Act.
They have been sabotaging NordStream 2 pipeline for years.

4. He destroyed the trust between Russia and Germany built up by generations after the war. It will take decades to restore this trust
The previous German government under Merkel was duplicitous.

They broke the deal they made with Yanukovych to make early elections in 2014 by sponsoring the Euromaidan coup with US.
The Germans pushed the closure of SouthStream pipeline project against South Eastern European country interests when it was already half built. Russians had to negotiate with Turks to reuse already laid pipeline for TurkStream. The large delays and changes vastly increased project cost as expensive pipe laying equipment was leased and had to sit there for a year or two doing nothing. Yet the Germans themselves built NordStream. After the SouthStream affair, Putin did not want to build more pipelines into Europe. Merkel convinced Putin to build NordStream 2 against his wishes guaranteeing it would be approved. We know how that turned out!
Russia completed the project at vast expense with delays because of US sanctions the EU and Germany made no efforts to counter. And then Germans, with the current government, did not approve the pipeline into service. The pipeline had been finished when last government was in power in December 2021. They didn't bother pushing for early approval either.

Right now the Head of German Intelligence services was in Lviv, Western Ukraine, the nest of Ukrainian Banderite neo-Nazi movement.
Putin asked the current German Chancellor at the security conference last week for Germany to give guarantee Ukraine wouldn't join NATO. No country can join NATO without unanimous approval from all NATO members. He was non-committal and said there were "no plans to let Ukraine join in the immediate future". While Russia had 150k troops on Ukraine's border. :rolleyes:

Germans leaders helped cause this conflict. They cannot be trusted. The fact they just sent lethal aid to Ukraine, something they claim they don't do as policy to nations in conflict is even more telling. They are completely in the pocket of the US.

He raises several points, primarily: Apparent differences in morale between opposing forces, the weakness of Russian military bureaucracy, the "misguided" approach of developing naval forces alongside ground forces, assumptions of Russian assumptions, the remilitarization of Ukraine, the importance of an existential threat, and the assertion that "power is mythological."
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The analyst assumes that Putin was not expecting a large-scale conventional conflict because of Putin's personal history and political decisions. But everyone could see the outrageous military buildup over the last two months and the deployment of over 150,000 Russian troops. Does the analyst believe that the preparations were mostly for show, and that real war had not been on Putin's mind? This logic is not sound and the assumption should be invalidated.
He is an idiot. I had been watching the increase of Russian ORBAT over the last 3 years with quite a lot of alarm.
They took out hundreds of T-72 tanks out of storage and upgraded them into T-72B3 and T-72B3M. They increased purchases of BMP-3 vehicles by several hundreds of units. They upgraded hundreds of vehicles to BTR-82A standard. They raised whole new divisions from the ground up that had been disbanded with the 2008 reforms. They moved back towards division structure from battalion structure.
With the 2008 reforms Russia cut its army size, disbanded the conscripts, and had 200.000 professional troops. Now it is 400.000 professional troops, and 200.000 conscripts.

They were getting ready for a possible conflict. Otherwise they would have waited for their new model systems to be in mass production. You know what. This isn't the Russian Army meant to fight a possible WW3. That army will have T-14 Armata, T-15 IFV, Kurganets 25 IFV, and Boomerang vehicle in many, many hundreds of units. T-14 for example will enter mass production this year.

Notice how they kept T-90 in reserve and BMP-3 was seen in pitifully small numbers. They didn't even bother use their upper echelon of troops. This is the mass built army they raised over the last 3 years. This is why people claim these are conscripts. But they aren't. They are professional troops with salaries to match. If he wanted he could just invade NATO next and roll over it. But that isn't his plan. It is just to push them to make negotiations on conventional troop reductions on Europe. But they are so stupid, they want to push him into an arms race. Except Russia is way ahead of Europe in terms of modern weapon systems development. Europe will thus send huge amounts of money to the US MIC. Which will be busy supplying weapons to Asia too.

Merkel's government, including Ursula von der Leyen when she was defense minister are responsible for letting the Luftwaffe rot. They did not fund upgrades of Eurofighter to Tranche 2 standard when the UK asked them to do it. Most Eurofighter aircraft don't work. They put all Leopard 2 tanks into storage, innoperational, and they are old models which can't hold a candle to refurbished T-72B3 tanks.
They have a 5th gen fighter program with France which was started late and won't be ready on time. So they will buy more US weapons.
France has had a long running advanced drone program which could be quickly put into production. Germany insisted it had to be a dual engine drone because they want it to be able to be used for monitoring civilian areas. :rolleyes:

Russia has developed the Su-57 specifically to fight the F-22/F-35 family of fighters. It was developed after their specs were known.
Thanks to Western sanctions on MC-21 composite wing production, Russia massively ramped up their carbon composite fiber production, which previously was tiny just for Su-57 military aircraft production. The Su-57 is still not in Su-57M status so it won't enter mass production yet. But it is way, way ahead of European 5th generation fighter development. And if they need to they can mass produce Su-57 in emergency production.

The analyst argues that Ukraine has 400,000 veterans from fighting the separatists in Donbas for several years. Where are they? Nothing on the ground suggests that Ukraine is enjoying a 4:1 numerical advantage. Kiev is undefended and surrounded, and Russian forces have already pushed over 200 km from the Crimean border. They are losing ground by the hour. The only front that hasn't budged is in the east, and that pocket will be closed on the Ukranians there if they don't break out in the coming week.
Those troops should be totally surrounded as we speak.

Finally, the analyst suggests that power is mythological, that it is entirely a social construct, that people are emboldened and empowered to fight when they believe in success. By that logic, ISIS would already have conquered united the Middle East. I need not explain further why this is complete bullshit, and if any of my lecturers suggested such a thing, I will tear up my IR degree and flush it down the toilet.
Yeah it is bullshit. The Nazis and Imperial Japanese also used to talk like that. That if you were losing it was from lack of will. Not hard factors. We know how well that turned out for them.

Ukraine has won some battles so far, but they are well on their way to losing the war, because the war is defined by Russia's political goals. War is a continuation of politics by other means. What is Russia's primary political goal in this conflict? To ensure that NATO never expands into Ukraine. As long as Russia can keep NATO out of Ukraine for the foreseeable future, it will have won the war.
Just one word from the German Chancellor or French President saying they would veto Ukraine's ascension into NATO and putting it in writing later would have been enough. But they prefer to destabilize Russia. Putin isn't Stalin. He won't let the war come to Russia. He'll stop the war before it comes to Russia.
 
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Strangelove

Colonel
Registered Member
Putin has lost in some aspects, no matter how this war might end.
1. He might conquer Ukraine with heavy losses but he has lost the Ukrainians forever(their hearts)

2. After his criminal attack NATO is more united then ever before. More nations want to join because they don't want to get annexed by Putin who suddenly claims the right to decide which nations have a right to exist and which not

3. Russian economic collapse due to sanctions

4. He destroyed the trust between Russia and Germany built up by generations after the war. It will take decades to restore this trust

Russia can feed itself, gov debt to GDP is less then 30%, manufactures it own chips (56nm), near unlimited supply of oil, gas and metals, and anything else it buys from China using euros, rubles and RMB. Economic collapse? You're drinking too much western propaganda cool aid. The worse that will happen is Russians can't travel to Paris to buy LV bags.

Western Ukrainians? who cares about them, as long as they're unarmed/poorly armed, they can jerk off to nazi flags and hate Russians all they want. Germans? Given the billion+ euro investments they have in Russia, it behooves them not to act as US/Atlanticists slaves and be more independent.
 
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BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
Under normal circumstances you would probably be right alas these times are not. Europe is joining the global rearnament in a big way thanks to Russia. And make no mistake, the US must be delighted. What they couldn't persuade us europeans to do in the last two decades, Putin accomplished in a few days. Just my two cent.
It will take decades to rearm, let alone design doctrines on paper and execute in real life.

This thread also has been confused why Russia didn't go scorched earth. Maybe it's something they are testing out if a soft hand works in the post war period. It feels like sacrificing your own blood to minimise future resistance groups for being formed.

I think there are a lot of lessons for China to learn. Might be the way if their redlines regarding Taiwan are crossed.
 

yongpengsuen

Junior Member
Registered Member
I was ATGM trained in Milan and then converted to Israeli Spike.

The way I see, those convoys were easily taken out of action. Ukraine got the timely intelligent on Russian movements and Russia didnt provide adequate air cover in the form of heli gunships.

AK-12 has sufficient range these days to drop ATGM soldiers.
 
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