Ukrainian War Developments

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james smith esq

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Chilled_k6

Junior Member
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There was never a concerted effort at air campaign.

Russian jets never showed up or bombers just some CAS.

Ukraine fell by a recon in force.

EU is shitting itself and can only stage PR and yell at the tv.

Apparently in Izium Pocket theres such a large number of forces, drones are not best for task.

Better is smerch, tornado, uragan, and grad with orlan.

Guys comment too much on kiev or kherson urban war but do not comment on spectacular moves at Izium.

These are 10 brigades we talk about guys, the bulk of UAF.

8th CAA is managing this direction from LDNR they are rocketing UAF badly at izium , tochkas are all but silenced.

Ukrops are in situation reminiscent of the 6th army at stalingrad.
Are the Ukrainians making an effort to withdraw? Is it the 20th CAA closing from the north and northwest?
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
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One biggest problem with single party states and strongmen is that leader/leadership can easily end up being surrounded by "yes men" who agree on things they know are stupid. Russians are moving forward in Ukraine, slow but surely, yet Putin goes on talking about nuclear weapons. Shoigu was giving Putin "wtf going on here, mate" look when Putin mentioned nuclear weapons.
Is that what happened to Trump, Bush Jr.
 

bustead

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No, they'd be making it possible for ships to do so. And there would be Aegis, bombers sortying out of wherever etc. A couple B-1Bs dropping 50 LRASMs to the party would make a nice mess.
OK let's entertain this idea.
SSNs are used to bust the Chinese navy's defenses. Cool. Let's say that works. Then air power taking off from nowhere (because Guam is destroyed by DF-26s) finishes off ALL of the remaining Chinese navy. Let's just say that works completely fine.
Then you send transport ships towards Taiwan. However, Chinese shore based missiles (both ASBMs and conventional SSMs) destroys your transports. Chinese air force and naval aviation is also very active.
Then you start a war of attrition with China to destroy the Chinese air power. Even if you can win, it will take months to years. During which every convoy you send is in danger. They are detected when they enter the Taiwanese waters, when they dock/stop to drop supplies, they are instantly targeted by missiles. They may also hit mines, get ambushed by submarines and missile boats or their supplies maybe destroyed before it can be distributed. Sure, you fight off every engagement and ambush, but the number of cargo ships is dropping.
You try to get more. However, you realize that China is the biggest producer of ships. Japanese and South Korean shipyards are destroyed (because it is a WW3 scenario by that point) and American shipyards are busy building combat ships.
Then you discover that the 230 million Taiwanese actually need lots of food. And trucks to deliver said food from the ports to their home. And fuel to run those trucks. In fact, you need thousands of cargo ships.
Slowly, it becomes a desperate war of attrition. You lose more and more ships and cannot replenish your losses quick enough. China is taking heavy casualties as well. But they do not care as Taiwan is their core interests. Chinese decision makers are willing to sacrifice everything for it.
Now you are stuck. Watch Taiwan slowly but surely starve to death? Or give up and let China win?
 
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