Ukrainian War Developments

enroger said:

What is Russia's deal here? 围而不攻？Are they trying to force a capitulation with sieges? If that's the case this war may last for a while

Edit: ah, looks like they're going in after all

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They aren't even putting it under siege, electricity water and even internet is still working in Kiev. I think they are still giving a chance for the Ukrainians to surrender and avoid having to kill too many of them.

Berdyansk airport captured. Mariupol is close to being surrounded

Tonight might be the night we finally see stuff go down

In Rovenky (Luhansk region) an oil deposit burns after an explosion. It is reported that 200 tons of diesel fuel is burning in the oil depot.

taxiya said:

I also heard that Germany is exempted to buy Russian Gas. That is reduce the scope of SWIFT usage by Russia.

Here is the report by Reuters

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"We are urgently working on how to limit the collateral damage of decoupling from SWIFT in such a way that it affects the right people. What we need is a targeted and functional restriction of SWIFT," Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Economy Minister Robert Habeck said in a statement.

We all know that SWIFT is a transaction system. What ever paid via SWIFT is virtual money that got deducted from one bank's account in the data system and another bank got the amount increased. There is no physical cash or gold passing hands.

So the German is saying that "I will pay you through SWIFT, but you won't be able to use that money for anything because you are cut off for anything else". Russia would be stupid in deliver their gas in exchange for nothing in return.

So my conclusion is that what Germany agreed is to reduce trade with Russia which isn't about SWIFT which is just a vehicle of the trade.

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LOL, the Germans are delusional.

The Russians should just respond pay it in gold, or no gas.

KYli said:

I was born in Fujian and grow up in Hong Kong. I know more about Hong Kong, Taiwan, Taiwanese than you would think of. Hong Kongers might have been more westernized than Taiwanese but Taiwanese have been much more Japanized than Hong Kongers. Hong Kongers might have been brainwashed but many would still care enough to donate money to mainland China and consider themselves as Chinese except some youngsters. In the contrary, Taiwanese would only donate money to Japan but not to China and ridicule China when China offered helps to Taiwan.

In the late 90s and early 00s, there are still many Taiwanese who would support an eventual peaceful reunification. But that's the case anymore.

KMT is not what it used to be. KMT can't no longer advocate for peacefully reunification. Its members have been infiltrated by opportunists and pro-independents that disguised as neutral.

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And I've been to Taiwan and HK numerous times in the recent years. My best friend lives in Taiwan right now. You cannot possibly visit Taipei and HK and think Taipei is less Chinese than HK. Culturally speaking, Taipei is more like southern China than even Shanghai is.

Think about it this way, 10% of Taiwanese population lives in the mainland. There are a whole lot of Taiwanese people with spouses from the mainland. There are a whole lot of Taiwanese businesses operating in the mainland. There is a lot of ties between the two sides of the strait. This is not like 20 years ago when Taiwanese and HKers all thought they were richer and more sophisticated than mainlanders.

Sure, they don't donate money to China. Why would they donate money to a place that's trying to conquer them? But are they scared of pissing China off? They sure are. If anything, the Ukrainian conflict will convince more Taiwanese people that they are by themselves and should be on their best behaviour in their dealings with the mainland.

lube said:

It shows that Ukrainian military PR is very good. It knows what people want to see and hear.

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I'd correct that to say "Western backed PR". There so much crap on social media that's influenced by the US. It's easy for them to silence Russian voices just like that silenced Chinese voices on twitter, and even wikipedia. They silenced Marcos Jr on twitter and FB helped bolsonaro win. If it was China's social media, there would be calls to ban them a long time ago. Many countries like Iran, Venezuela, Russia should have banned them already.

A lot of the Twitter posts here are even repeated from yesterday. I can tells me I don't even go on twitter that much. Tons of comments on how this is taking longer than Russia expects. Do they know what Russia expected? Maybe Russia expected a 2 week conflict and they are moving much faster? I don't think any of us arm chair analysts actually know Russia's real plan or their logistics. I just see tons of "Ukrainian winning" stories but where are the Russian prisoners? Put them on camera!

On Reddit they are promoting a Ukrainian solder who killed 30 Russians! This is for Western audiences. China knows that in the event of a conflict they are not winning the PR war at all. But how much does winning the Twitter war count?

wxw456 said:

As long as China is not the aggressor, then there is no moral basis for an invasion.

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They will always make up some reason to make china the aggressor. That's easy. They did it in Bosnia, Iraq, Syria, lybia. I can go on forever. China is biding get time, learning. Getting stronger domestically, making domestics policies stronger. That's the best way to prevent invasion.

Abominable said:

They aren't even putting it under siege, electricity water and even internet is still working in Kiev. I think they are still giving a chance for the Ukrainians to surrender and avoid having to kill too many of them.

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Makes sense if they want to avoid taking Kiev by force, urban combat is hell. Still they need to kill a large number of Ukrainian forces to grind down their will to resist if they want to achieve that, no two way about it.... this could take a while

Zichan said:

I am surprised they lost ground so rapidly in the south. They had 8 years to fortify the narrow isthmus from Crimea with trenches, tank traps, landmines, etc.

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who are they?