Ukrainian War Developments

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james smith esq

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Rough translation (not mine):

"Defensive battles are being fought in the Kherson region in the south, with mechanized units of the Armed Forces recapturing the road bridge and gaining a foothold on the left bank of the Dnieper."
So, now, the question is, does Russia intend to move on Odessa, i. e., will they fight to re-take the west bank, or will they hold at the east bank of the Dnieper? This area might give us our first glimpse at Russia’s central strategy.
 

anzha

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So, now, the question is, does Russia intend to move on Odessa, or will they hold at the east bank of the Dnieper? This area might give us our first glimpse at Russia’s central strategy.

I was under the impression - could be wrong! - the Russians had crossed the Dniepr. The Ukrainians crossed back at another locale.
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
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Yep. This is what I call a proper offensive force

It seems that today was more for probing/recon attacks, and to test the main defensive lines of Ukranian forces. After this task is completed, massive concentration of forces will be used
You have to get your enemy to mass/concentrate their forces in order to have something to attack en masse!
 

Minm

Junior Member
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So far it looks like they are aiming to take the Eastern part of the Ukraine, including Kiev. Take a look at this speculation from CSIS back in January:
220113_Jones_UkraineRussia_Map1_0.png

An interesting development in the north is Russia's decision to advance through the irradiated Pripyat marshes from Belarus, as speculated by CSIS.

They'll probably want to take back all the territories that were historically gifted by Russia to Ukraine. The south also has far more ethnic Russians so there'll be less resistance.

If we use the Syrian war as a template, the Russians might try to change the ethnic makeup of the country. In Syria, many of the Sunnis fled or were sent to Idlib. In Ukraine the most pro Ukraine nationalist and Ukrainian speakers are going to flee to the west of the country while the Russian speakers might welcome the Russian troops. So you'll end up with a southern and eastern Ukraine that will formally become part of Russia and a western Ukraine that will be ruled by a puppet government.

If changing the ethnic composition of the region is part of the plan, it also makes sense to attack slowly. This gives civilians the time to flee. Those who hate Russian occupation the most, will flee first. After a few days only those who can tolerate the Russian conquest will be left
 
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