Ukrainian War Developments

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memfisa

Junior Member
Registered Member
A video showing another perspective of the horrific event. Its feels kind of chilling as the guy who took the video is likely dead.

What is that white blur on the front of the tank approaching on the road? Is that a Z?

Also i would not call this horrific in any way. Those guys didnt suffer. Now what is horrific are the torture of POW's in videos i've seen about 95% exclusively created at the hands of the AFU and it's friends. Horrific is what humans are willing to do to other living humans, prolonging their incredible suffering for as long as possible. That's horrific. This video? That's just what war is about. People getting turned into roast beef and slices of salami.
 

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
Well, currently the only convergence between Ukraine and "foreign countries" is Afghanistan, Syria and Libya.

Ukraine has a national identity. You, and your country’s patriotic indoctrination, no doubt would have insisted China should fight when the Japanese saber rattled from Manchuria in 1937 as a matter of meeting the basis demands of the Chinese national identity. I think It is a reflection of basic inability to place oneself in another’s shoes, or to connect with others who feel or act the same way oneself would under similar circumstances, to not see the parallel.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Great points, I would counter though that NATO has spent the last 60 years formulating a strategy to take out the old traditional system that the Russians have had for so many years so perhaps reforms were needed.

Even historically, armies needed NCOs to allow unit cohesion, who knows what other lessons this war might reveal.

Well that’s a great point as well. It’s always an evolutionary race between both sides. Just as NATO worked on how to fight the Soviets and then Russians, so too did the Russians work on how to fight NATO.

A big factor in why the VKS has performed so far below expectations (even if most expectations were probably unrealistic to start with) was because it was tailored to fight NATO first and foremost. They didn’t need 90% of their frontline combat aircraft to be multirole because against NATO, it would be a win if they can keep NATO aircraft from attacking their ground troops.

The BTU shift was also tailored to fight NATO. They were designed to use focused firepower to punch through NATO tank lines of superior tanks using numerical and firepower superiority, and then leverage their mobility to flank and stay away from NATO heavy armour and cut them off from supply and logistics so they can be pinned in place and pounded to oblivion by massed artillery from a safe distance.

The concept itself was sound, and was used to great effect in 2014 and in Syria. The problem was that Russia didn’t want to invest in the hardware or the training that made BTU what they are across the board, instead just re-structured existing formations to resemble BTUs with existing equipment and limited retraining on how to fight effectively under the new structure.

So is it any wonder they ran into all sorts of problems when they used those watered down BTUs like proper BTUs and expected them to perform like proper BTUs?

Also, I think it was unwise to convert all your core frontline combat strengths into BTUs even if they had the time and money to do it properly.

BTUs are the tip of the spear. You still need the rest of the spear to fight effectively!

Had they properly reformed and committed to the investment needed to make their army into proper BTUs, they would have been fine. How they focused on only converting the part of the army they could have afforded to into BTUs and used the rest of the army to properly support those elite units, they would have been fine.

The Chinese saw the problems with the way the Russians did their BTU modernisation in the limited joint exercises they did together. But the Russians themselves didn’t see the dangers because they rigged all their exercises. From army games to tank biathlon, it was always the Russians who won every time. Now Russian soldiers are paying with their lives because of that earlier arrogance.

And before we pile in too much on the Russians, I think NATO isn’t much better when it comes to arrogance.

China is improving in leaps and bounds because they don’t care who it is that does something better. So long as it is indeed better, than it is worth learning from, no matter if it’s the Russians or Americans or Japanese or even Indians.

When was the last time anyone from the west pointed to something Russia, or god forbid, China does better and say, wow, we can really learn from that! And actually learn from it and make major changes to the way they do things?

Just as this war is turning into a painful learning experience, I think the same would be true for NATO if they go head to head against Russia or China in direct combat.
 

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
What is that white blur on the front of the tank approaching on the road? Is that a Z?
Likely, its too blurry to make out. The Ukraine side is trying to play this as a friendly fire, but if the tank has a Z mark on it, then it means they use captured enemy tanks. The friendly fire narrative seems to have more credence, because there's aftermath photos take and uploaded by the Ukrainian side on the ground.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
This is asinine. Ukraine is a country of 40 million people. They have 200k active duty with 400k-600k reservist. Plus millions of men willing to fight an insurgency. And that insurgency would be backed by the west. 200k isn’t enough to occupy a country. You would need at least 600k fighters to do this. The best objective is take the historical Novorussiya lands turning the rest of Ukraine into a rump landlocked poor state. Taking all of it would suicide for the Russians.
Ukraine could have a million troops, it wouldn't change things. What are Ukrainians going to do with all these untrained conscripts?

Unless they have tanks, APCs, artillery to field an army they'll be forced to resort to suicidal human attacks. Even the Nazis in Mariupol are now surrendering rather than fighting to the death, even though they know they'll all possibly be executed. And I'm supposed to believe the average Ukrainian software developer is going to turn into an Afghan insurgent? Soldiers shouldn't be used for policing, you would use local forces and the political opposition to control cities. That's been fine in every town Russia has taken so far, including ethnically Ukrainian Kherson. If that doesn't work it'll be national guards.

A smaller independent Ukraine may have been an option at the start of the war, but not now. Any part of Ukraine that is allowed to survive will become another Israel. The west will pour in billions to keep it afloat and will be a problem for Russia for eternity.
I think Ukraine has at least 400,000 troops by now. Russia is struggling to field even 200,000. Never before this war did I imagine that Russia would have a manpower problem.

When the US went against Iraq in the Gulf War, they assembled a force close to 700,000 strong. Together with the coalition, there were about 900,000 troops going against a roughly 250,000 strong Iraqi force in Kuwait and southern Iraq. A classical 3:1 numerical over match by the attacker.
Even with smaller numbers overall Russia can have a local numerical advantage.

America is a bad example. They had the manpower and resources to throw at Iraq, Russia doesn't. If the American invasion of Iraq is your benchmark there will be no successful invasions in the future except for ones done by superpowers.

They still lost to the insurgency in the end.
 

WickedhichofWest

New Member
Registered Member
Oil importing countries are trying to buy as much as possible before oil stops flowing from Russia. Same mentallity as shopper trying to clean up supermarket shelves during lockdowns.
Could be, but price is probably also playing a part, as friendly countries get a good deal.
The OPEC mentioned today that production wouldn't be easy to ramp up.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
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