Ukrainian War Developments

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Coalescence

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This is really bad, is there no other way to send supplies there? I know that Russian planes are banned from their airspace. If Poland and Lithuania doesn't find a compromise with Russia, then it may evolve into a war over land routes and escalate into an all out war. Another possibility is Putin not responding to it, and let Kaliningrad be cut off from supplies, which would make him look weak to the public. Either way there's no easy option.
 

Lethe

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This is really bad, is there no other way to send supplies there? I know that Russian planes are banned from their airspace. If Poland and Lithuania doesn't find a compromise with Russia, then it may evolve into a war over land routes and escalate into an all out war. Another possibility is Putin not responding to it, and let Kaliningrad be cut off from supplies, which would make him look weak to the public. Either way there's no easy option.

Sea-based transport from St. Petersburg.

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jvodan

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This is really bad, is there no other way to send supplies there? I know that Russian planes are banned from their airspace. If Poland and Lithuania doesn't find a compromise with Russia, then it may evolve into a war over land routes and escalate into an all out war. Another possibility is Putin not responding to it, and let Kaliningrad be cut off from supplies, which would make him look weak to the public. Either way there's no easy option.
There is a roll on roll off ferry service between St Petersburg and Kaliningrad.
 

gelgoog

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Yes they can go by boat or by flying cargo over the Baltic.

Originally Kaliningrad, the Baltics, and Belarus were connected to the same energy grid as Russia. So was Ukraine. They all shared electricity.
Then the Baltics announced they would join the EU energy grid and disconnect from Russia and Belarus.

Russia originally had plans to build a nuclear power plant in Kaliningrad. It was supposed to give energy to not just Kaliningrad but export it to the neighboring countries. As that would take too long to build, they eventually cancelled it and built a lot of natural gas power plants and an LNG terminal. I assume Poland wants the LNG terminal. But it is a floating terminal. So I doubt they would capture it intact.
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GodRektsNoobs

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Since this is a forum about China, we should be contributing more Chinese perspective to this conflict. While many think that the current conflict resembles the Soviet-Finnish War, it is possible that this conflict will become Russia's Battle of Khalkhin Gol of 21st century. Prior to the battle, Soviets believed that their new Deep Battle Doctrine along with a large mechanized/air force would result in a quick victory. However, the battle dragged on, and was only won by Soviets after heavy losses. It revealed Soviet weakness in tactical command and its officer corps, and general deficiencies in combat effectiveness. Likewise, Nazi Germany suffered signification losses of almost 20,000 troops during the invasion of (half of) Poland, and its war plans were severely disrupted by fierce resistance from several Poland strongholds and cities - many of them did not fall until the general surrender of Polish army. In fact, Polish resistance in the East was only destroyed by the Soviet forces entering the war from their rear.

One interesting aspect of the war is that Ukrainians were still able to be fairly combat effective despite having its line of command being effectively cut off, by utilizing personal initiative of local commanders and NATO intelligence. This is atypical of high-tech informational warfare, where the emphasis is that every element could collect and receive realtime battle information, allowing HQ to visualize every minute detail of the battle space and issue commands like a RTS game. In Ukraine, it's the exact opposite: NATO merely provides intelligence, and it takes each local commander's own initiative to make use of the intelligence and organize attacks. The video calls this type of distributed warfare "Didi (or Uber) warfare." This "local network" tactic requires only a personal terminal (ie. smartphone) to collect/receive realtime intelligence and make decision based on it. It could potentially evolve to be a new method of guerrila warfare for the modern era, and is currently being investigated by PLA researchers. Hopefully PLA could either apply it to their own doctrine or devise a counter.

More importantly though, it is obvious that both Russia and Ukraine are incapable of waging large scale high-tech informational war. True large-scale informational war between peer opponents have not yet materialized - everyone is still fighting 20th century war with 21st century weapons. We have seen nations waging small scale 21st century high-tech war against weaker opponents (Russia-Ukraine in 2014, Syria, Azerbaijan-Armenia etc.). But once the war scales up to multiple Corps-level confrontation, Russia had to resort to Cold War era warfare due to the lack of adequately trained troops and equipment. Actually, in this regard, it can be seen that from logistics to unit manuvers, the current Russian army is even worse than the Soviet Army 40 years ago. In essence, this war has revealed a lot of drawbacks which the Russians must fix, and also unveiled insights for the war of the future.
 
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Coalescence

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One interesting aspect of the war is that Ukrainians were still able to be fairly combat effective despite having its line of command being effectively cut off, by utilizing personal initiative of local commanders and NATO intelligence. This is atypical of high-tech informational warfare, where the emphasis is that every element could collect and receive realtime battle information, allowing HQ to visualize every minute detail of the battle space and issue commands like a RTS game. In Ukraine, it's the exact opposite: NATO merely provides intelligence, and it takes each local commander's own initiative to make use of the intelligence and organize attacks. The video calls this type of distributed warfare "Didi (or Uber) warfare." This "local network" tactic could potentially evolve to be a new method of guerrila warfare for the modern era, and is currently being investigated by PLA researchers. Hopefully PLA could either apply it to their own doctrine or devise a counter.
This is very interesting, so normally with command being established, it plays something similar to "Command and Conquer" or "Starcraft", where the players command and move every decisions and movement of their units. So what's happening here is a decentralized type of command, where I'd like to draw parallels to a game called "Dwarf Fortress" (Its free, but don't play it if you value your sanity and time).

So in Dwarf fortress, the players cannot command the decisions and movements of the dwarves directly, instead the player will setup what jobs each dwarves can take and their priorities, then setup work orders and wait for the appropriate dwarves to work on the order. NATO passing intelligence to the local commanders, is kind of similar to that logic. Any group or individuals receiving the order can choose to act on it, depending on their situation at the moment (Dwarves prioritize drinking booze, will do that first before acting on that order)

The advantage of this method is that you don't need to be constantly updated on your group or individual's status and whereabouts, and you don't need to assign a group or individual to the task, anyone who is capable and available at the time will receive the order and act on it, allowing for quick command. The problem with this method, is you need to confirm on your own whether the task is being completed, as you may not receive a confirmation unless the completion of task produces something visually noticeable. Another issue is redundancy, as multiple groups or individual might ended up taking the same task, unless there is a way to signal to everyone that the task is already taken.

I'm not sure if this is the same idea that is being described in the article, but I'd like to share my thoughts about decentralized command order, as I thought of making a video game AI that is commanded similar to what I described above.
 
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Stealthflanker

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Sea-based transport from St. Petersburg.

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and they recently transferred their ferry to "Oboronlogistics" which is established and owned by Russian department of defense.

also this in their web :

"
By the decree of the Government of the Russian Federation, Oboronlogistics LLC was defined the only provider of transportation services for the Ministry of Defense for the delivery of goods to the Republic of Crimea, Kaliningrad, the Arctic and Kuril island areas.
"


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