Ukrainian War Developments

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Zichan

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According to retired Army major general Mike Repass, the Russian invasion in Ukraine has peaked:
The Russians culminated about 5 days ago. In the military vernacular, "culmination" means you no longer have sufficient combat power to continue to advance in the offense. I believe that the Ukrainians sensed that and started conducting local counterattacks, particularly to the north and west of Kyiv. They also started counterattacks in the east recently. The Ukrainians went on the counteroffensive, but in a limited way. They took the town of Irpin to the west of Kyiv and some other towns, but the news coverage of the counterattacks has, I think, surpassed the actual effects of those operations on the ground.

I'm concerned that it's not a large counterattack because perhaps the Ukrainians don't have enough forces to launch one. So, if they can't muster a larger counterattack around Kyiv, they may have a hard time gathering enough forces to push the Russians back in the east near Donbas.
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BERGEN: What's the Russian game plan now?
REPASS: Their initial theory of victory was to decapitate the Ukrainian government, secure a land bridge to Crimea and then seize as much land as possible. He also said he was going to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (regions). The additional land seizure was going to be things that they were willing to bargain away. They have no intention of bargaining away the land bridge to Crimea.
The Russian expedition to Kyiv from the north was well anticipated and superbly defended against by the Ukrainians, and the Russians realized after substantial casualties that they didn't need that. The seizure of Kyiv was (and is) not essential to Russia's success, and was a want-to-have as opposed to a must-have. The land bridge to Crimea is a Russian must-have.
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Source:
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Anlsvrthng

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Terrowyn said:
The dam is located east of Izium and north of the Kramatorsk front. It makes sense to me because the more they can disable the Russians ability to cross the river (longer stretch the better) then the more likely it is that trying to encircle Kramatorsk with a pincer type motion will fail from the North, especially when you see how the donets river travels eastwards after the dam as it approaches Kramatorsk. If anything, it has helped cut off russian armory from getting into izium which has been seen as strategically important.

The economy isn't going to be in their minds in an existential war like this, they're going to be pulling out all the stops just to survive, and Russia should expect this.
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Existential threat means the population could expect genocide, serious repression and so on.

In this case we talk about increase level of living if the Russians succed.


It is more about a war with a small, western controlled and financed elite. They don't care about infrastructure, dams, building and to keep alive the population.

They are in a big groupthink induced and created by the Capital and Pentagon.
 
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Anlsvrthng

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KYli said:
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Quite nasty russians said that :

The document requires unfriendly foreign buyers of pipeline gas (i.e., Gazprom clients) to create accounts in Russian banks beginning April 1 in order to pay for supplies. Under this mechanism, the buyer opens currency and ruble accounts with Gazprombank (GPB), pays for gas supplies via transfer to a foreign currency account, and then the bank exchanges this currency into rubles on the Moscow Exchange and deposits them into the buyer's ruble account, as described by commodity markets analyst at Otkritie investments Oksana Lukicheva. The gas is thus paid for in rubles from the buyer's ruble account.
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Means they will do credit check for all payment done by the EU for the gas, each time checking that if the payment could be used by Russian private or goverment entities to buy stuff from the EU.

If the credit check failed then they stop to supply more gas until the issue resolved.

So, either the EU stop the sanctions, or there is no more gas.
 
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Anlsvrthng

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Coalescence

Coalescence

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Coalescence said:
I found this twitter thread that tried explain what happened, that I want to share:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510416745474969601

Source is of course pro-Russian, but they do bring up some points about some unusual aspects in the video.
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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510567023486840834

Here's another attempt at debunking by pro-Russian sources. Seems kind of too blurry to make out the detail, but what do you guys think?
Edit: the hand thing looks like a water droplet on the windscreen.
 
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Weaasel

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