Ukrainian War Developments

Helius said:

Whenever I see the Russians using SAMs to take out these small drones, often commercial ones like you-know-who, I keep thinking wouldn't it be more economical to use ack-acks like a Zu-23 instead?

Granted it wouldn't be as precise, but the flak rounds would take them out just the same. Even with something as old as a Strela-10 or an Osa, I just think how cost-ineffective it is, that they'd be better served taking out helos or Su-25s (whatever the Ukrainians got left) and actual military drones like the TB2.

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This engagement seemed to high for a commercial drone of the type you were thinking.

I think another matter to take into consideration is whether these SAM systems, especially the older ones, can even detect and track those small drones. Most of them will be flying relatively low and at a relatively low speed. Therefore they will be in a radar signal return zone of the side lobe beam which is clutter heavy as it scatters off terrain, buildings, etc.

To remove clutter, older radars rely on Doppler shift which makes it possible to differentiate signals based on their radial speed. Using this information a SAM radar interested in detecting aircraft can remove clutter signal by filtering any data with a radial speed say less than 100 kph. This makes the radar blind to objects moving at a slower speed. Therefore, a small drone has a good chance of falling within this blind zone of the radar and flying up to the radar undetected.

Theoretically, even at high altitude, if you fly in a circle around an older pulse doppler radar you may be invisible to it because your radial velocity will remain zero.

Phead128 said:

I don't consider Russia as resource limited....they only dedicated 15% of their active service members and a fraction of their land and airforces. They can dedicate more, nothing is stopping them from throwing more men, equipment, and firepower that are holding in reserve since their Plan A (minimal force, quick enemy collapse) failed. Time to go to Plan B (manuever warfare to concentrate forces against Donbass), and maybe Plan C (throw more reservists and troops to reinforce), etc....

Hindsight is 20/20, doesn't mean their initial first choice is attrition warfare. They have the ability to muster far more troops/equipment at initial stages to achieve quick victory but chosen not to. Likely because they overestimated themselves and underestimated the Ukrainian willpower to resist. Now they are forced to engage in attrition warfare, but it's not their preferred first choice.

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To throw more man power at the rate needed for a quick victory requires logistics that the Russians likely do not have. You need money to keep a large logistics capability during peace time for war like this, which they may not have the resources to do. This all boils down to lack of money. Finance is constraining how the Russians are able to fight this war.

Richard Santos said:

and people who write for western press by crafting analysis to fit the rabid popular sentiment du jour are, not paid western shills?

BTW, aren’t you the one did the remarkably undignified keyboard skit about russians running away?

don’t you at least owe us a similarly gleeful skit in reverse now that people who must in your opinion not be paid shills seem to think they are running away but redeploying?

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Some people just don't appreciate Monty Python. Sad.

62d5

ohan_qwe said:

But if a quick war is impossible then spending 6 months with 5k casualties may be preferred compared to spending 3 months and 10k casualties.

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Call me heartless but following your scenario, i would still take the extra 5k casualties and finish it in 3 months.

I cannot emphasize enough how important time is. 5k troops, you can replace them, but 3 extra months are irreplaceable.

In general, time is one of the most, if not the most, important thing in a war. Of course there are exceptions depending on a country's National Comprehensive Power (NCP) For example the US and China can afford to "waste" time because of how powerful they are (no limitless time wasting though)

Russia's strategic conditions mean that it should be choosing to finish this war as soon as possible. It doesn't have the necessary NCP to go at its targets/goals slowly.

pmc said:

They didnot commit troops to Kiev alone. They committed troops to Belarus to built logistic chains, upgrade airbases and deterrence against Poland. They just used those troops for Kiev for time being as they still wanted to do missile and gunship strikes from North. they needed ground troops to stir hornest nest for effective use of airpower. North is North. South is South.

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they didn’t use air power effectively, They spread their offensive power over many axis, but the main objective of such a lack of concentration - ability to keep enemy guessing and prevent enemy from concentrating against a main attack - seem not to really have been achieved to a sufficient degree such that enemies’ confusion would allow some of the russian offensives to break through.

Combat footage : A Chechen special forces unit is fighting on the streets of Mariupol.

The center of Mariupol from a bird's eye view :

It is the 2nd time that Iskander ballistic missile is used against Buk air defence system!!!!!!!!!!
It is confusing, why are they using a ballistic missile against Buk ? Sure the accuracy is perfect but still!

With every article from The Copium Zone, I'm more convinced these guys are on somebody's payroll a la Bellingcat

Turkish TV : The Ukrainian army tried to hijack a Turkish ship moored in Odessa.

A sniper of Azov banned in Russia was killed in Mariupol :


- Dead bodies of Ukraine forces and foreign mercenaries are scattered across Mariupol, Russians and Chechens gathered like a pile of them, cant share the footage, viewer discretion is advised if you go looking for it.

Corona said:

Turkish TV : The Ukrainian army tried to hijack a Turkish ship moored in Odessa.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509271014127316992

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They tried ? So they failed to hijack him ? Frankly, that's lame if they did fail...

Aftermath of a Russian missile strike against a Ukrainian tank base in Kharkov oblast :

Among the 190-plus UN member states, more than 140 countries have not followed suit in sanctioning Russia - Wang Wenbin

Ask not what China can do for you, ask what you can do for yourselves. Getting rid of arrogance would be a good start.
Video is in English :