Ukrainian War Developments

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james smith esq

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It is not "nowhere". It is for Kiev. To block it and later use it as blackmail in negotiations with Ukraine. Thing is sometimes politics necessity weight more than military tactic. People assume for some reason that objective of Russia are to take control of Ukraine, it is not. Stated goals are DNR/LNR borders, neutral status, demilitarization. I do think considering actions in Kherson and Melitopol(like establishing new administration, local police etc etc), ensuring control of largest NPP in Ukraine to establish power generation independence, that South would be split from Ukraine too, but that is it. There is very little reasons to take anything else.

So after establishing such control, you need to force Kiev to accept terms of negotiations. This is why push for Kiev that established presence from both sides of it, with reinforced supply lines to ensure possible long siege, have been done. It is a bargain chip to force Kiev to accept terms.
That all sounds real good!
 

james smith esq

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the reality is that Ukraine's power relative to Russia is only a little weaker than Imperial Japan's power relative to the US.

Demographics UKR vs RUS 2022: 1/3 population.
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Demographics JPN vs. USA 1940: 1/2 population.
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Economy UKR vs RUS 2022: 1/8 GDP.
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1940: 1/5 GDP. 192 billion JPN vs 943 billion USA

This is a high intensity conventional war like Korea or Iran-Iraq. This is not a COIN operation. Russians did believe that Ukrainian morale was low and it'd be mostly mopping up a COIN operation but they were wrong.

Given the recovery from their mistakes, I'd say Russia isn't doing too badly when you think of them as fighting their version of Imperial Japan.
But, would Imperial Japan have allowed that 40km convoy to remain intact?
 

Weaasel

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The big mistake the Russians made was not having a coherent strategy!

If anyone looks at that map, a realistic one, and tells me that the Russian strategy is clear, I’ll call them a liar or a brilliant interpreter of abstract art. Was the plan to take Ukraine up to the Dnieper? LOL!!!

The didn’t have to take any cities, just control access. All they had to do was to neutralize military capabilities. If Ukrainian military units retreated into the cities, then let them stay there; mortars and artillery emplacements in urban spaces can be located and neutralized by CAS strikes.

As I said, the “reinforcements coming from the North” would have been easy pickin’s for any competent Air Force and artillery units. Requiring one’s adversary to move where and when you want them to is actually strategy 101.

All the “mistakes” you mentioned in tactics were subordinate to the fundamental mistake in strategy. The charges, no matter how badly executed, were to nowhere, in the first place!

But, go ahead and minimize Russian incompetence; that’s obviously their preferred MO. Better yet, go ‘head and volunteer! Everybody, here, is makin’ fun of the fools volunteering to fight for Ukraine; but ain’t nobody foolish enough to even consider volunteering to join Russia!

Slava Stupid!
Make it clear what you believe that their o overall military strategic objective should be, please. Is it to just take the Donbass Region and the Sea of Azov Coast and surround troops in these regions that retreat to cities without actually taking any of them?

Do you believe that they should not have made any deep throat towards Kiev?

I am pointing out the mistakes and their hubris, and you are saying that I minimizing their incompetence. SMH... I have not even disagreed or commented with your take on their overall strategy, aside from stating that there are number of cities that must be taken.

If you have seen my previous posts, I have stated myself that Kharkov and Kiev need not be taken and doing so would be extremely costly...
 

james smith esq

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I do actually believe that the original plan was to rush to the Dnieper and the reason for that being is that they could not conceive that the Ukrainian army would do anything other than rush back and fortify its Western Bank.
I think that finding the Ukrainian army dug in on the Eastern Territories was a surprise and put them off balance, while they adjusted to the realities of the war that was being presented.

The reason that the Ukrainians did this, is IMHO, a politically motivated strategy, and reflects a Ukrainian government that is overwhelmingly from the light entertainment industry and which has put "sound bites over sound strategy" at every turn.

I believe that this decision not to concede an inch of territory has been a major strategic blunder for Kiev, which has left its army exposed in a bad strategic position and which is why most of it is now encircled in the East and facing active annihilation.
Ultimately, Kiev will still lose the territory, but it also and unnecessarily lose its army as well, which will massively undermine its ability to negotiate a peace with Moscow.
I think this reality is now dawning which is why Zelenskyy is desperate to get Putin to agree to immediate direct Peace Negotiations this morning.
Ok, so if the Ukrainian army is exposed and in a bad strategic position, then why are the Russians wasting any ordnance, at all, on civilian targets in cities?

Another commentator and I have been waiting for the Tu-22M3s to come in and carpet-bomb these “exposed“ positions. Wouldn’t this be the most effective method at their disposal to clear their paths to whatever their ultimate geographic objectives are?
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
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Make it clear what you believe that their o overall military strategic objective should be, please. Is it to just take the Donbass Region and the Sea of Azov Coast and surround troops in these regions that retreat to cities without actually taking any of them?

Do you believe that they should not have made any deep throat towards Kiev?

I am pointing out the mistakes and their hubris, and you are saying that I minimizing their incompetence. SMH... I have not even disagreed or commented with your take on their overall strategy, aside from stating that there are number of cities that must be taken.

If you have seen my previous posts, I have stated myself that Kharkov and Kiev need not be taken and doing so would be extremely costly...
From an earlier post:
I’m convinced that the Russians have no clue as to what they’re doing, now! Attacking cities when military commands, networks, installations, bases, and formations should have been the primary objectives, with individual units having (possessing) [edit] mission threatening capabilities, such as dispersed anti-air batteries being secondary. Whichever units holed-up in the cities could have been dealt with after the threats in the field were neutralized.


This isn’t 20th century warfare anymore, in which gaining territory is a fundamental means of gaining victory, or even advantage.

And, what’s this about a “deep throat” towards Kiev? Who’s fellating who? ;)
 
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SampanViking

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Ok, so if the Ukrainian army is exposed and in a bad strategic position, then why are the Russians wasting any ordnance, at all, on civilian targets in cities?

Another commentator and I have been waiting for the Tu-22M3s to come in and carpet-bomb these “exposed“ positions. Wouldn’t this be the most effective method at their disposal to clear their paths to whatever their ultimate geographic objectives are?
As the Ukrainian army has fortified itself into those civilian areas, you have the answer to both those points.
This is a civil population that the Russians do not regard as hostile and in fact regards as kinsman. They came in with the stated aim of liberation, which would be hard to reconcile to acts of mass urban carpet bombing.
We are seeing strikes against weapons, ammunition and fuel dumps, plus of course C&C to degrade the combat ability of these Ukrainian forces as quickly as possible.

Mariupol is of course an obvious exception for equally obvious reasons.
This Russian expeditionary force is quite small considering the job it has undertaken. Less than 200,000 in total. They certainly have more men and equipment to call on if required and this would not degrade other frontiers defensive capabilities.

Why are the Ukrainian forces not leaving the cities? Do you remember the 2014/5 war in the Donbas? Do you remember the Ukrainian division that was tasked with sealing off the rebel areas from the Russian border? That force was obliterated as an effective combat unit, one night, out in the open, when the Russians fired smart anti armour munitions from its MLRS systems.
It was footage of this that made most of us here realise that a Ukrainian victory was very far from guaranteed (which is how it had been looking before hand).

I would say that three weeks in, the Russian commanders are not going to be overly disappointed with what they see.
 

Strangelove

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Russia fires hypersonic missiles in Ukraine​


Moscow has deployed Kinzhal missiles for the first time since the start of its military operation

The Russian military has said it used its state-of-the-art Kinzhal hypersonic missiles to destroy an arms depot near the city of Ivano-Frankivsk in western Ukraine.

The strike with the air-launched missile system took place on Friday, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said during a briefing.

It targeted “a large underground depot of missiles and aerial munitions of the Ukrainian forces” in the village of Deliatyn, he added.
Kinzhal, which means ‘dagger’ in English, was used by the Russian military for the first time since the start of the Ukrainian conflict on February 24.

Those munitions are said to be able to penetrate any existing air defenses by traveling at a whopping speed of up to Mach 10 and constantly maneuvering during their flight
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Kinzhal missiles are carried by MiG-31K supersonic interceptor aircraft, which NATO calls ‘Foxhound’.

The hardware is one of several hypersonic systems prepared for the country’s military in recent years, together with the Avangard glider, which is fitted on silo-based ICBMs, and Zircon (Tsirkon) missiles, developed for the navy.

Moscow sent its troops into Ukraine last month following a seven-year standoff over Kiev’s failure to implement the terms of the Minsk agreements, and Russia’s eventual recognition of the breakaway Donbass republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. The German- and French-brokered protocols had been designed to regularize the status of those regions within the Ukrainian state.

Russia has now demanded that Ukraine officially declare itself a neutral country that will never join the US-led NATO military bloc. Kiev insists the Russian offensive was completely unprovoked and has denied claims it was planning to retake the two republics by force.

Kinzhal 999.jpg
 

james smith esq

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As the Ukrainian army has fortified itself into those civilian areas, you have the answer to both those points.
This is a civil population that the Russians do not regard as hostile and in fact regards as kinsman. They came in with the stated aim of liberation, which would be hard to reconcile to acts of mass urban carpet bombing.
We are seeing strikes against weapons, ammunition and fuel dumps, plus of course C&C to degrade the combat ability of these Ukrainian forces as quickly as possible.

Mariupol is of course an obvious exception for equally obvious reasons.
This Russian expeditionary force is quite small considering the job it has undertaken. Less than 200,000 in total. They certainly have more men and equipment to call on if required and this would not degrade other frontiers defensive capabilities.

Why are the Ukrainian forces not leaving the cities? Do you remember the 2014/5 war in the Donbas? Do you remember the Ukrainian division that was tasked with sealing off the rebel areas from the Russian border? That force was obliterated as an effective combat unit, one night, out in the open, when the Russians fired smart anti armour munitions from its MLRS systems.
It was footage of this that made most of us here realise that a Ukrainian victory was very far from guaranteed (which is how it had been looking before hand).

I would say that three weeks in, the Russian commanders are not going to be overly disappointed with what they see.
How can they be exposed if they’re fortified in civilian areas? I didn’t advocate carpet-bombing cities (I don’t think the Russian should be in the cities, at all) I was referring to the “exposed” armies that you, yourself represented. I might have been up all night, but I can still read and remember, now.

So are you saying that the Ukrainian armies are exposed while fortified in the cities, or are you using “exposed“ in a figurative sense?

And, btw, three-weeks-in, Putout ain’t happy, at all!
 
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