Ukrainian War Developments

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RottenPanzer

RottenPanzer

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Mohsin77 said:
Decent analysis, but it has one major problem.

He raised a good question, which we already discussed on this thread: Why didn't the Ukrainian Air Force interdict the huge logistics convoy which the entire planet watched slowly rolling towards Kiev? The obvious answer is that Russia indeed has Air Superiority.

The problem though is the manner in which he describes Russia achieving air superiority. His claim is that Russia is relying mostly on its S-400s/IADS. Thats a big assumption. He cites only 1 kill that the S-400 got at long range. Moreover, the problem is in the concept, because relying mainly on your SAMS would create deconfliction issues in the airspace you're trying to dominate. I suspect the CMs and Air Strikes on Ukraine's airbases had more of an effect than the S-400s. We even saw one of the Ukrainian airbases completely destroyed by a FOAB, which was dropped by a strategic bomber.

The fact that Ukraine was desperately requesting Polish Mig-29s indicates that the S-400 are not their main concern. If they were, then it would be pointless to ask for more Migs. The request for more Migs indicates that they've actually lost most of their air force. It was either disabled on the ground, or it was splashed in combat (or both.) But more data is needed here.

Another issue which he didn't address, and it hasn't been discussed much on this thread either, is the weather's effect on Russia's air campaign. After the first few days Ukraine was covered by clouds. US intelligence correctly predicted that this would cause problems for Russia's CAS efforts. The next day, we got all the footage of MANPAD kills of Russian fighters and gunships. This slowed Russia's air operations for a time. So weather played a big role in the attrition here.
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I would like to see the supposed FOAB dropped at one of the Ukrainian airbases, do you have the source?
Also regarding the MiG-29, i don't see them asking more MiG-29 would really change anything much, Russia could just raided the remaining airbases with cruise missiles, fighter-bomber and also the threat of S-400 which should make those MiG-29s to be quite sitting ducks
 
FriedButter

FriedButter

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RottenPanzer said:
To prevent a possible Ukrainian air raids?
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Not like they weren’t going to get shot down. Is it possible there are other foreign aircraft near the Donbas region? But it would have to come from the Western side. They can’t fly from the south (crimea, Mariupol) and the North.
 
RottenPanzer

RottenPanzer

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FriedButter said:
Not like they weren’t going to get shot down. Is it possible there are other foreign aircraft near the Donbas region? But it would have to come from the Western side. They can’t fly from the south (crimea, Mariupol) and the North.
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Probably for precautions purpose only, nothing really escalating
 
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