Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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Less lame rhetorics, time for another ISW assessment:
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Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
In more detail:
Russian forces made small territorial gains in Luhansk Oblast on March 14 but did not conduct any major attacks toward Kyiv or in northeastern Ukraine. Russian forces continue to assemble reinforcements and attempt to improve logistical support in both the Kyiv and southern operational directions. Ongoing Russian efforts to replace combat losses with both Russian replacements and non-Russian sources, including Syrian fighters and the Wagner Group, are unlikely to enable Russia to resume major offensive operations within the coming week.
Key Takeaways
Immediate items to watch
Note:
(from the detailed assessment):
Russian and Chinese officials both denied US intelligence reports that Russia sought military aid from China. Both claimed that Russia does not need additional military support. Russian and Chinese officials and state media denied US media reports on March 13 that Russia requested military aid from China, calling these reports disinformation.[7] Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov pushed back on the reports and denied that Russia would need any external aid, claiming that "Russia has an independent potential to continue the operation" and that Russian operations “will be completed on time and in full.”[8] Chinese state media similarly stated that Russia does not need Chinese help in its “limited-scale” war in Ukraine but emphasized that the United States cannot obligate China to promise not to export arms to Russia.[9] Russia and China likely have discussed possible Chinese military aid to Russia, but both seek to frame Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a limited operation and to avoid acknowledging growing Russian supply issues.
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Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
In more detail:
March 14, 5:00 pm ETRussian forces made small territorial gains in Luhansk Oblast on March 14 but did not conduct any major attacks toward Kyiv or in northeastern Ukraine. Russian forces continue to assemble reinforcements and attempt to improve logistical support in both the Kyiv and southern operational directions. Ongoing Russian efforts to replace combat losses with both Russian replacements and non-Russian sources, including Syrian fighters and the Wagner Group, are unlikely to enable Russia to resume major offensive operations within the coming week.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces conducted several limited attacks northwest of Kyiv on March 14, unsuccessfully attempting to bridge the Irpin River.
- Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations east of Kyiv and continued to prioritize improving logistics and reinforcing combat units.
- The continued ability of Ukrainian forces to carry out successful local counterattacks around Kharkiv indicates that Russian forces are unlikely to successfully bypass Kharkiv from the southeast to advance toward Dnipro and Zaporizhia in the near term.
- Russian and proxy forces continue to achieve slow but steady territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast after initial failures in the first week of the Russian invasion.
- Ukrainian forces halted resumed Russian attacks from Kherson toward Mykolayiv and Kryvyi Rih on March 14.
- Russia will likely deploy small units of Syrian fighters to Ukraine within the week and is confirmed to have deployed private military company (PMC) forces.
- Russian and Belarusian forces increased their activity near the Ukrainian border in the last 24 hours in a likely effort to pin down Ukrainian forces but likely do not have the capability to open a new axis of advance into western Ukraine.
- Russia and China deny that Russia seeks military aid from China and claimed that Russia does not need additional military support to complete its objectives in Ukraine.
Immediate items to watch
- The Kremlin likely seeks to pressure Belarus to join the war in Ukraine and will deploy Syrian fighters to Ukraine in the near future.
- Ukrainian counterattacks and operations by Territorial Defense Forces in northeastern Ukraine threaten Russia’s exposed line of communicating, requiring Russia to redeploy forces away from the offensive towards eastern Kyiv.
- Russian forces are undertaking another operational pause to prepare for renewed efforts to encircle Kyiv from east and west and/or to seize the city center itself following their failures of March 8-9.
- Russian troops may drive on Zaporizhya City itself within the next 48-72 hours, likely attempting to block it on both banks of the Dnipro River and set conditions for subsequent operations after Russian forces take Mariupol, which they are currently besieging.
Note:
(from the detailed assessment):
Russian and Chinese officials both denied US intelligence reports that Russia sought military aid from China. Both claimed that Russia does not need additional military support. Russian and Chinese officials and state media denied US media reports on March 13 that Russia requested military aid from China, calling these reports disinformation.[7] Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov pushed back on the reports and denied that Russia would need any external aid, claiming that "Russia has an independent potential to continue the operation" and that Russian operations “will be completed on time and in full.”[8] Chinese state media similarly stated that Russia does not need Chinese help in its “limited-scale” war in Ukraine but emphasized that the United States cannot obligate China to promise not to export arms to Russia.[9] Russia and China likely have discussed possible Chinese military aid to Russia, but both seek to frame Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a limited operation and to avoid acknowledging growing Russian supply issues.
It takes a special kind of stupid to think you're gonna come out of it alive or with your limbs intact.... What do these people expect? Being able to 360 no scope in COD doesn't mean you can dodge MLRS rockets....
I wonder how they’ll integrate the foreign and merc fighters. They aren’t trained to fight within Russia’s combined arms and maneuver warfare oriented doctrine. So I don’t see them being part of any of the BTG’s. I guess they’ll just be used for sieges in cities? That’s the only situation I can see them fighting in.
Just as I expected. Great time to make more money for China. In fact, I have a crazy idea.
1. Buy Russian gas. Negotiate with the Russians for a cheaper price (say a 20% discount)
2. Call EU leaders. Tell them that China is willing to sell gas to EU to solve their problems. Give them a 5% discount if they are somehow nice.
3. Sell Russian gas to EU.
4. Make profit without actually doing much.
The only risk of this plan is that the US may expose the trade. To mange that risk, China can import as much gas as it can excavate daily and sell it to EU. Just claim that it is from SCS or something.
Just buy Russian gas and consume them domestically, sell Chinese domestic produced gas or extra gas from contracts with Australia or the US or even gas from Turkmenistan to the EU.
In fact, some Western mercs are really bad at modern warfare. For example:
On r/VolunteersForUkraine, some posters claim that they were sent to the frontline without sufficient ammunition. I think generally Ukraine is using them as cannon fodder to delay the Russian advance.
If he was so concerned, would he be willing to put up his own money to fund a private army to fight Russia and China?
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