Ukrainian War Developments

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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Nay. China already stated at the start of Russian invasion that China was not going to send arms.
Personally, I don't think China will send arms to Russia.
Putin made the first move on Ukraine, so he should either finish the job himself or go home.

Its important to note that we are strategic partners with Russia, not allies. China follows its own plan regarding its relations with the West and it won't allow Putin to highjack China's foreign policy because he wasn't prepared for a full war and instead decided to do the "brother" war.

IMO China will only intervene if it senses that Russia may collapse. Until that happens, Putin should wage the war by himself. China's diplomatic and economic support for Russia in this war is already almost unprecedented for the past decades.


People who followed the thread from the beginning would remember that from day 1 I kept saying:
"A lioness will use all of her strength even when hunting a rabbit."

That Putin decided to do a half-arsed war is not China's fault.

/rant
 

ArmchairAnalyst

Junior Member
Registered Member
The loss of Iranian oil in the 1970s was countered by the North Sea oil discoveries. Most of those deposits are now near depletion as are the ones in the Arabian Peninsula. The only cheap oil left is in Iran. Venezuela's huge deposits would require huge investments too. Similar to those Canada had to make for like two decades to get tar sands working. While the production shortfall can be compensated for eventually the oil price will still rise. Indian and Chinese oil&gas consumption today is also much larger. All over the Cold War period Russia never cut supply to Europe. Back then the Soviets were supplying the whole of Eastern Europe too as it was part of the Warsaw Pact. There is simply no way around the Russian energy. It will move to alternative markets but to even consider cutting it totally off is nothing short of collective suicide. Europe and Japan also have no way around it for 5-10 years. Unless they shut their whole industries down to conserve energy.
First of all, decoupling is a lot more than just oil.
What was seen recently is nothing compared to what we are just beginning to see now.
Decoupling is still far worse for the smaller economy in a global world.

Secondly.
North Sea oil only became economically viable after the Middel East oil crises.
The same could be said for the Arctic and other remote places with untapped remaining oil.
Old enemies could become new allies and so on.
Pure speculation though (but still interesting).
That the EU is already set on slowly facing out Russian energy is not.
The rest is already decoupled and might remain so for the foreseeable future.

The US still has sanctions on Cuba and Iran. Cuba has been under sanctions for, what, like 70 years? Iran for like 50?
Both wealthy and large economies today?
Not destroyed, sure. But not exactly thriving either.
(still better than North Korea with its almost completely isolated tiny economy though)
 

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
People never really ask for help in time for a moderate amount of help to make any difference. By the time Russia really need Chinese munition, It will probably require a massive airlift to transfer enough equipment to have a hope of making any difference whatsoever
 

ArmchairAnalyst

Junior Member
Registered Member
Enjoy your hyperinflation. My only concern is many African nations and Asians would have difficulty to put food on the table and hungry and starvation isn't out of question as fertilizers, oil and food exports in Ukraine and Russia and Belarus are essential for many countries.
No doubt that both the West and Russia are involved in intense economic warfare now with the rest of the world as mostly innocent bystanders. Also why this war is more than just some local european conflict. It definitely has global ramifications.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
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Moscow and Kiev may soon come to agreement – Russian negotiator

I am happy to report that, according to my personal expectations, in the next few days, this progress may develop into a joint position of the delegations and into documents to sign.

Slutsky stressed that signing such documents would be a matter of “paramount importance,” as it would provide a basis for de-escalation and for “saving many people who are dying today.

Presidential aide Mikhail Podolyak said in an interview with the Russian newspaper Kommersant that the two sides were approaching a compromise. He opined that the Russian side was “already seeing things much more adequately,” but noted that it would likely be some time before it “fully, 100%, understands the situation it has got into.

Podolyak said he sees any agreement between Kiev and Moscow as being in the form of a “multi-component” document. It should include provisions on the termination of the war, the terms and time schedule of the withdrawal of the Russian forces, the guaranteed terms of the peace agreement, and a detailed description of compensation mechanisms, he stressed, as recovery efforts would likely amount to “billions of dollars.
 
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