Ukrainian War Developments

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Jingle Bells

Junior Member
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Yeah, Ukraine probably only had 1 small team there. If they had x7 and properly positioned, they could have annihilated that Russian advance there.

Cool video though
That is as meaningless as saying that if the Russian economy is 2x larger, it could afford to use a large fleet of attack UAV as well as lavishly bomb Ukrainian positions with an whole lot of guided munitions in the KAB-500 and KAB-1500 classes.

The reason Ukrainians don't have x7 there instead of a small team that can't take advantage to expand their kill counts is precisely because their available military resources is so severely thinned out.
 

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
Did the Chinese respond to this as well? It would make sense for Russia to say that since, bluntly speaking, they depend on China for survival and cannot criticize them at this point. However if China were to come out and say that it is fake news, then the Reuters report is confirmed to be a lie.
indeed. it is not in russia’s interest to express amy negative thoughts about china and chinese conduct at this moment or for a good deal of time into the future.

beggars can’t afford to bite the only hand that feeds it, even if he is not snywhere close to being satiated.
 

FriedButter

Brigadier
Registered Member

An offensive is probably planned after Mariupol falls. Alexander quoting a paywall article (link below) from the times up has an anonymous western official saying.

Encircling the Ukrainian forces in the east is “paramount” to the success of the operation because that was where the most effective, capable, trained, and equipped Ukrainian forces are in the country and “there will be a need to encircle those forces to prevent them from interfering with the military operation.”
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reservior dogs

Junior Member
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There are other options to annexation though. Keep fighting until the Ukrainian government agrees to an unconditional surrender. Then impose the following:

1. Ukrainian acceptance of full responsibly for the start of the war with or without reparations.
2. A partition of the country with Russian speaking portion of Ukraine either becoming independent or integrating into Russia. Russia will decide where the border will be.
3. No airforce, no navy, no air defence. A numerically limited army with no tracked vehicles. No NATO.
4. Denazification. Prosecution of Nazi war criminals under Russian law, removal of statues, and renaming streets glorifying WW2 nazi collaborators. Make display of Nazi insignia a criminal offence like it is in Germany today.
5. Dismantling of all nuclear powerplants. A no nuclear policy in the west, with no foreign biolabs.
6. After all of that is complied with a full Russian withdrawal, free and fair democratic elections with UN observers with no Russian interference. Even Zelensky could come back from America or Israel and run the country again if he wanted to.
7. Russia reserves the right to intervene if any of the above are broken.

All of the above would be perfectly legal according to international law and would have precedent - it's a mixture of the outcomes Germany was given by allied forces after WW 1 & 2. It's actually more lenient as there still are American bases in Germany to this day. There would have been Russian bases too if Gorbachev didn't withdraw them.

There's a few advantages to this over just annexing the whole country. First it means Russia doesn't have to pay for rebuilding of all of Ukraine, let America do that. Secondly as the dispute was resolved bilaterally, there would be no justification for international sanctions. Finally it also means Russia doesn't need to deal with the self hating wannabe American Ukrainians, why would anyone want to share a country with them? I thought pro-colonial HKers were bad, but they have nothing on the Ukrainians.
What you suggested is a good alternative to the full takeover of Ukraine. It has the following drawbacks.

If West Ukraine is left as a rump state to fend for itself, you will bet that there will continue to be Western meddling. Russia will be powerless to stop this without going to war again which would be bad for its economy.

Western Ukraine is sparsely populated so it would not be so hard to rule if a Ukrainian arm forces friendly to Russia is established. This allow Russia to take action if they don't like what they see in the Western Rump region.

Western Ukraine is a huge producer of agricultural products so if the Russians can control that indirectly by controlling all of Ukraine, that would add to their future negotiating power with the West.

Once they take all of Eastern Ukraine and the coast, taking the remainder of Ukraine is quite easy and I feel keeping the entire Ukraine is more beneficial to Russia in the longer term.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
For this guy a brand new toy have just arrived from Germany
That looks like a regular pickup truck. The Ukrainians do have Nissan pickups in their inventory, this is probably one of them.
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I hope that bit of yellow tape isn't the only IFF they're using. Then again there's videos with regular cars with missiles stored in the back of them.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarReports/comments/t8n580
I don't see how Russia can enforce a blockade short of completely destroying roads and other infrastructure, or in the worst case potentially any vehicles coming in from Poland.
 

ArmchairAnalyst

Junior Member
Registered Member
What are you saying? That the Ukrainians won't recognise a government they elect themselves?

Any formal treaty between Ukraine and Russia would have to be signed by the international recognised Ukranian governmet to be seen as legitimate by international law:
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You mean more antagonistic then they are already? What do you think they will do?

Not currently with war between the two nations, no ;)
But later down the line after an undetermined period of occupation, puppet regime or even annexation. It happened to the Soviet Union and even threatens Russia internally today. That's the problem with empires.

Just like Poland, Finland and others which were all part of Russia or the Soviet Union before. Most of them are not that fond of becoming part of it again and are not exactly friendly towards Russia today. Historical animosity have a tendency to linger for a long time.

Germany and Japan became friendly because both actually benefitted by the actions of the conquerors long term. Carrot, not more stick. Had they not, both would be looking for getting even today.
 

Mohsin77

Senior Member
Registered Member
I'm not sure about tanks being cavalry archers when technicals are faster, nimbler, stealthier and their ATGMs outrange tank round (although tanks can fire ATGMs too).
I feel tanks are becoming more akin to knights from the middle ages, especially with their ability to form armored pushes into fortified areas.

Well, Technicals/ATGMs didnt stop Russia's BTGs from encircling Ukraine's Eastern armies in open terrain, so good luck with that.

ATGM technicals aren't even going to see the tanks behind rolling IR smokescreens until its too late.

And that's assuming they even survive the artillery barrages and gunships until they make contact with armor.

Once they are in range of their main guns, they will get shredded with ballistic shells faster than they can acquire missile lock.

In open terrain, ATGMs can only succeed against the most inept commanders. Not against a proper offensive.
 
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