Ukrainian War Developments

[LawLeadsToPeace]

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Straight from the horse's mouth, disregard all talks of "China not sharing aircraft parts" and "China sending aid to Ukraine, that must mean they are against Russia"

Did the Chinese respond to this as well? It would make sense for Russia to say that since, bluntly speaking, they depend on China for survival and cannot criticize them at this point. However if China were to come out and say that it is fake news, then the Reuters report is confirmed to be a lie.

 

[Abominable]

They say this, but the Ukrainians will never accept formally recognizing the loss of Crimea and the Donbass.

Unless Kyiv is completely destroyed like Gronzy, but then will some paper promise of not joining NATO matter any more?
Russian demands are in bad faith, or they're smoking something.

This is real life, not a hollywood movie. Ukrainian soldiers will fight until they've had enough, then they'll surrender. Nazis in Germany surrendered eventually, as did the Japanese.

Going in Grozny style is one option. They could just cut off power and communications to Kiev and wait. Open up a humanitarian corridor for any civilians who want to escape or small units of soldiers who want to surrender. It's what basically the method used in Syria and was very successful in reducing casualties on both sides.

Russia says West arms convoys are legitimate targets.

this is a big move. if the West stops the supply, Ukraine will collapse soon; if West keeps supplying, and Russia bombs the convoys, that's big escalation.

An important thing to note is that when they say convoys, most imagine large military trucks. Those would be sitting ducks for the RuAF. So I was wondering how Kyiv and other cities so far have been able to keep up supplies.

There's a few videos where missiles have been pictured in regular civilian vehicles, including regular unmarked cars. That would be the logical explanation and it seems Russia has had enough of it.

 

[LesAdieux]

Pretty much. And we saw how the US failed to win in Vietnam. NATO can arm a Ukrainian insurgency for a long time. People forget what makes a successful insurgency is the insurgents getting outside support from neighboring nations. They can retreat to those countries to rest, rearm and recruit to continue the insurgency. Once insurgents get help from neighboring nations it’s hard to beat it. The US wasn’t able to defeat the Taliban for this reason as Pakistan helped the Taliban. Same with the Shia miltias in Iraq. They had help from Iran. That’s why it doesn’t make sense to occupy all of Ukraine. Just partition it between east and west.

I think partition is against the will of the Ukrainian people. but given the fact that east and west Ukraine had existed separately for a long time, partition maybe doable.

 

[windsclouds2030]

[VIDEO] EXCLUSIVE FOOTAGE shows 200 Russian Spetsnaz taking control of Gostomel airport about 2 weeks ago. The most revealing part to us from this footage is the Ka-52 helicopter differentiating angle of attacks and specific weapons. At the end, you can hear the KA-52 helicopter’s voice assistant saying “attack from the front by stinger” at which point it deployed electronic counter measures. Pretty hard to shoot down those Ka-52s

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[Aegis21]

[VIDEO] EXCLUSIVE FOOTAGE shows 200 Russian Spetsnaz taking control of Gostomel airport about 2 weeks ago. The most revealing part to us from this footage is the Ka-52 helicopter differentiating angle of attacks and specific weapons. At the end, you can hear the KA-52 helicopter’s voice assistant saying “attack from the front by stinger” at which point it deployed electronic counter measures. Pretty hard to shoot down those Ka-52s

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Was Gostomel ever recaptured by Ukrainians before ultimately becoming Russian? Ukrainian govt. said so before, but seems like it’s a Ghost of Kiev or Snake Island story. Also. anyone know what happened to the 2 IL-76s Ukraine said they shot down ?

 

[Phead128]

If that's the case then Russia's just going to keep bombing until it becomes realistic.

Realistically, if Russia cannot annex the whole country, and cannot install a puppet regime over the whole country, then it's only option is partitioning Ukraine into Western Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine along the Dniper river, with pro-West independent Western Ukraine as a "failed state" (landlocked, ungovernable, economically backwards) and pro-Russia independent Eastern Ukraine as a puppet state like Afghanistan gov't. That's the only way to guarantee NATO/EU won't touch Ukraine with a 10-foot barge poll and still have defacto long-term veto over Ukraine's foreign policy, and still secure a sizeable buffer zone for Russia proper. That would be well worth the 15% hit in GDP to Russian economy, not some paper promise on neutrality.

Russia has indicated that it is willing to accept significantly less than what you assert here...

In past, Putin has indicated they will "withdraw troops from border and have no intention for war" so may this is psychological warfare in negotiations. Don't blindly take Russia's words at face value.

 

[ansy1968]

Was Gostomel ever recaptured by Ukrainians before ultimately becoming Russian? Ukrainian govt. said so before, but seems like it’s a Ghost of Kiev or Snake Island story. Also. anyone know what happened to the 2 IL-76s Ukraine said they shot down ?

@Aegis21 bro ask @asif iqbal he is the expert regarding that subject.

 

[windsclouds2030]

Russia says West arms convoys are legitimate targets.

this is a big move. if the West stops the supply, Ukraine will collapse soon; if West keeps supplying, and Russia bombs the convoys, that's big escalation.

Russia's Deputy FM reaffirms that his country has informed The US that weapons supply convoys into Ukraine are 'legitimate targets' for the Russian military
2022.03.12

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[Aegis21]

Realistically, if Russia cannot annex the whole country, and cannot install a puppet regime over the whole country, then it's only option is partitioning Ukraine into Western Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine along the Dniper river, with pro-West independent Western Ukraine as a "failed state" (landlocked, ungovernable, economically backwards) and pro-Russia independent Eastern Ukraine as a puppet state like Afghanistan gov't. That's the only way to guarantee NATO/EU won't touch Ukraine with a 10-foot barge poll and still have defacto long-term veto over Ukraine's foreign policy, and still secure a sizeable buffer zone for Russia proper. That would be well worth the 15% hit in GDP to Russian economy, not some paper promise on neutrality.

In past, Putin has indicated they will "withdraw troops from border and have no intention for war" so may this is psychological warfare in negotiations. Don't blindly take Russia's words at face value.

I don’t think Western Ukraine will be a failed state per se. It’s just going to drift towards EU support and integrate with them. There is no heavy industry in Western Ukraine. As far as I know it’s mostly services based. The loss of the Black Sea will not be that detrimental. Eastern Ukraine on the other hand has economic value as a manufacturing, resources, and agricultural heartland. It certainly has strategic value but it will be worse off than Western Ukraine because of all the destruction from war.

 

[LawLeadsToPeace]

[VIDEO] EXCLUSIVE FOOTAGE shows 200 Russian Spetsnaz taking control of Gostomel airport about 2 weeks ago. The most revealing part to us from this footage is the Ka-52 helicopter differentiating angle of attacks and specific weapons. At the end, you can hear the KA-52 helicopter’s voice assistant saying “attack from the front by stinger” at which point it deployed electronic counter measures. Pretty hard to shoot down those Ka-52s

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They look like they are predominantly VDV air assault soldiers, not Spetsnaz. However, there seems to be Spetenaz teams attached to them.