Ukrainian War Developments

[Atomicfrog]

I'm seeing more Ka-52s and very few Mi-28s.

I don't remember seeing any 28Ns yet with top mounted radars.

I wonder why.

Practically nothing to hunt in open field...it's urban warfare at most places. So 28N with mounted radars are irrelevant, why risking them if they bring nothing more ?

 

[drowingfish]

Igor Ivanovich Strelkov (ex DPR Minister of Defence) was estimating another 5-7 days to take Mariupol yesterday but DNR progress seems pretty quick, the defenders are squeezed into a pretty small area:
View attachment 85087

will be an interesting turn of events if Mariupol is taken next week. it will free up thousands of troops for the push northward against the bulk of Ukr army trapped in the donbass. (it will of course take some time to recoup first) also gives putin the win he needed to sell to the domestic audience.

 

[gelgoog]

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Russian drone in action against alleged Ukrainian military weapons depot.

 

[ArmchairAnalyst]

There are other options to annexation though. Keep fighting until the Ukrainian government agrees to an unconditional surrender. Then impose the following:

1. Ukrainian acceptance of full responsibly for the start of the war with or without reparations.
2. A partition of the country with Russian speaking portion of Ukraine either becoming independent or integrating into Russia. Russia will decide where the border will be.
3. No airforce, no navy, no air defence. A numerically limited army with no tracked vehicles. No NATO.
4. Denazification. Prosecution of Nazi war criminals under Russian law, removal of statues, and renaming streets glorifying WW2 nazi collaborators. Make display of Nazi insignia a criminal offence like it is in Germany today.
5. Dismantling of all nuclear powerplants. A no nuclear policy in the west, with no foreign biolabs.
6. After all of that is complied with a full Russian withdrawal, free and fair democratic elections with UN observers with no Russian interference. Even Zelensky could come back from America or Israel and run the country again if he wanted to.
7. Russia reserves the right to intervene if any of the above are broken.

All of the above would be perfectly legal according to international law and would have precedent - it's a mixture of the outcomes Germany was given by allied forces after WW 1 & 2. It's actually more lenient as there still are American bases in Germany to this day. There would have been Russian bases too if Gorbachev didn't withdraw them.

There's a few advantages to this over just annexing the whole country. First it means Russia doesn't have to pay for rebuilding of all of Ukraine, let America do that. Secondly as the dispute was resolved bilaterally, there would be no justification for international sanctions. Finally it also means Russia doesn't need to deal with the self hating wannabe American Ukrainians, why would anyone want to share a country with them? I thought pro-colonial HKers were bad, but they have nothing on the Ukrainians.

So basically unconditional surrender with the current regime in the role of a puppet regime? Doesn't seem realistic.
Germany after ww2 is a poor example as all of the Axis allies was defeated too and all winners were on the same page.
Current Iraq or Syria are better examples for a realistic outcome with a completetly conqured and devastated Ukraine.

 

[Abominable]

Apparently Ukrainian forces are running out drones. On the matter of cities Russian forces seem to focus on one city at a time. It took US forces a whole month to clear Fallujah. For Russia they are attacking large cities with a well entrenched enemy that has atgms and in the case of Khariv some armor. Look at Mauripol they say it may take 7 more days to control the city. The Russians are winning but this war is going to bloody and slow. Urban warfare is very hard and will take a long ass time. That’s why Russia will do the same tactic they did in Syria. Encircle the cities, taking key highways, bombard them with air strikes, artillery and missiles to soften defenses then attack the cities in multiple axes to overwhelm the defenders. This is the same tactic they did in Grozny. It will be very very ugly and horrific.

Russia's approach in Grozny and Syria were completely different. Grozny resulted in very heavy enemy and civilian casualties, in Syria it was comparatively light.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

So basically unconditional surrender and the current regime in the role of a puppet regime? Doesn't seem realistic.

If that's the case then Russia's just going to keep bombing until it becomes realistic.

 

[LesAdieux]

Russia says West arms convoys are legitimate targets.

this is a big move. if the West stops the supply, Ukraine will collapse soon; if West keeps supplying, and Russia bombs the convoys, that's big escalation.

 

[Weaasel]

Only Russian absorption or total annexation is a 'permanent solution'. A "paper treaty" formalizing neutrality is a useless formality as nations can break international law anytime they want. It's only 'legally-binding' to extent either party respects the treaty. Russia needs a permanent veto over Ukraine foreign policy, where a paper treaty is as good as toilet paper in this day and age as nobody respects the international law anymore.

Using this logic, Russia should have invaded Poland, Baltic states, Hungary, and Romania to forestall "long term loss of strategic autonomy" because NATO troops directly bordered Kaliningrad and region near Saints Petersburg, and even closer to Moscow than Ukrainian border in 2003.

BUT.... Russia was weak back then. Now it's stronger. So it's ultimately a "Might makes Right" argument right, not some 5D chess strategic calculus about losing autonomy, Russia lost autonomy when Baltic states joined and NATO shared a border with Russia in 2003.



Sometimes nations do things against their economic interest because of perceived security interests. So it's ironic that you say US is throwing good money after bad, but somehow Russia is getting good money for a useless paper treaty neutrality. Russia needs to annex or install a puppet regime to make all these sanctions worth it. A paper neutrality treaty is a useless formality without regime change. Russia needs to topple the regime to have permanent long-term security.

Russia does not have the resources or even probably the aim for this "permanent" solution that you are writing of...

 

[getready]

Russia says West arms convoys are legitimate targets.

this is a big move. if the West stops the supply, Ukraine will collapse soon; if West keeps supplying, and Russia bombs the convoys, that's big escalation.

It's fair game. West escalated the war already by sending more weapons into war zone and needlessly causing more casualties while supporting a comedian leader who don't mind more and more civilians losses by arming them with weapons, all for the bidding of his masters. This is without even taking into account nazis among the Ukrainian forces.

 

[Overbom]

"⚡️ Zelensky: To seize Kyiv, they will have to destroy it.

“If there are hundreds of thousands of people, who are now being mobilized by Russia, and they come with hundreds or thousands of tanks, they will take Kyiv. We understand that,” said Zelensky."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502661139599089665