Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
- Start date
- Status
Odd ground activity at Moscow Domodedovo International Airport, at least 5 different aircrafts with Russian Air Force callsigns are showing up in FR24.
The Russian Defense Ministry released this photo where Russian tanks can be seen returning to their permanent bases. This is being seen as a sign of stress reduction.
I was speaking more of the comprehensive intelligence gathering capabilities, such as NATO supposedly having gained access to Russia’s plans and timing.
Embark on rail transport for boarding to the permanent deployment points of the Southern Military District units
---
Return to permanent deployment points for units in the Western Military District
---
Statement by the official representative of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Major General Igor Konashenkov, on the return of military formations and units to their permanent deployment points
"In the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, a complex of large-scale measures for the operational training of troops and forces continues. Almost all military districts, fleets and airborne forces participate in them.
As part of the test of Union State reaction forces on the territory of the Republic of Belarus, a joint Russian-Belarusian exercise "Union Resolve-2022" is being carried out.
The troops of the Eastern Military District and the Airborne Forces participating in this exercise, in cooperation with the Belarusian armed forces, are working on the issues of repelling aggression against the State of the Union during a defensive operation.
At the Obuz-Lesnovsky training camp on February 19, a live shooting stage is planned. During this event, the brigade of marines, together with formations and military units of the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus, with the support of operational-tactical aviation and the army, will develop the tasks of conducting a defensive battle and carrying out maneuvers in other instructions. .
Military defense attaches at the embassies of foreign states in the Republic of Belarus and representatives of the media were invited to the practical actions as observers.
A series of naval exercises involving surface ships, submarines and naval aviation are being carried out in operationally important areas of the world's oceans and in the waters of seas adjacent to Russia's territory.
Exercises continue with formations and military units at other training camps on the territory of the Russian Federation. Various combat training measures, including exercises, were carried out in accordance with the plan.
As combat training measures are completed, troops will, as usual, march in concert to their permanent deployment points. The units from the military districts of the South and West, having completed their tasks, have already started loading on rail and road transport and will begin today to move to their military garrisons. Separate units will march on their own as part of military columns."
----
MTO (Logistical Support) units of the Southern Military District began marching from Crimea to the point of permanent deployment on the territory of Stavropol
"The subdivisions of the material support unit (MTO) of the Southern Military District (SMD) began a march of more than 500 km to the point of permanent deployment on the territory of Stavropol. The personnel of the MTO units participated in planned tactical exercises in the fields of combined arms training on the Crimean Peninsula.
The auto column route crosses the Kerch Strait along the Crimean Bridge.
In addition, personnel from the units of the Southern Military District, who have already completed their participation in tactical exercises, are marching to the areas of the railway stations, where the loading of military equipment onto the trains is organized. Tracked heavy armored vehicles - tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and self-propelled artillery installations - are mounted on the platforms of the wagons in the established manner.
On the route, the work of the service stations of road commanders is organized, and the crews of the military automobile inspection escort the caravans.
Delivery of Caterpillar armored vehicles to the rail platform is organized by automobile trawlers.
By rail, the units' military equipment and engineer personnel are delivered to regions where military units are permanently deployed, including the republics of Dagestan and North Ossetia-Alania.
Upon arrival at military units, military equipment will be serviced and prepared for the next stage of combat training.
Previously, it was reported that reinforced companies of combined arms formation battalion tactical groups from the Southern Military District were involved in tactical exercises. The exercises were carried out on the territory of 15 combined arms training camps in the district's area of responsibility."
---
Return to permanent deployment points for units in the Western Military District
---
Statement by the official representative of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Major General Igor Konashenkov, on the return of military formations and units to their permanent deployment points
"In the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, a complex of large-scale measures for the operational training of troops and forces continues. Almost all military districts, fleets and airborne forces participate in them.
As part of the test of Union State reaction forces on the territory of the Republic of Belarus, a joint Russian-Belarusian exercise "Union Resolve-2022" is being carried out.
The troops of the Eastern Military District and the Airborne Forces participating in this exercise, in cooperation with the Belarusian armed forces, are working on the issues of repelling aggression against the State of the Union during a defensive operation.
At the Obuz-Lesnovsky training camp on February 19, a live shooting stage is planned. During this event, the brigade of marines, together with formations and military units of the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus, with the support of operational-tactical aviation and the army, will develop the tasks of conducting a defensive battle and carrying out maneuvers in other instructions. .
Military defense attaches at the embassies of foreign states in the Republic of Belarus and representatives of the media were invited to the practical actions as observers.
A series of naval exercises involving surface ships, submarines and naval aviation are being carried out in operationally important areas of the world's oceans and in the waters of seas adjacent to Russia's territory.
Exercises continue with formations and military units at other training camps on the territory of the Russian Federation. Various combat training measures, including exercises, were carried out in accordance with the plan.
As combat training measures are completed, troops will, as usual, march in concert to their permanent deployment points. The units from the military districts of the South and West, having completed their tasks, have already started loading on rail and road transport and will begin today to move to their military garrisons. Separate units will march on their own as part of military columns."
----
MTO (Logistical Support) units of the Southern Military District began marching from Crimea to the point of permanent deployment on the territory of Stavropol
"The subdivisions of the material support unit (MTO) of the Southern Military District (SMD) began a march of more than 500 km to the point of permanent deployment on the territory of Stavropol. The personnel of the MTO units participated in planned tactical exercises in the fields of combined arms training on the Crimean Peninsula.
The auto column route crosses the Kerch Strait along the Crimean Bridge.
In addition, personnel from the units of the Southern Military District, who have already completed their participation in tactical exercises, are marching to the areas of the railway stations, where the loading of military equipment onto the trains is organized. Tracked heavy armored vehicles - tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and self-propelled artillery installations - are mounted on the platforms of the wagons in the established manner.
On the route, the work of the service stations of road commanders is organized, and the crews of the military automobile inspection escort the caravans.
Delivery of Caterpillar armored vehicles to the rail platform is organized by automobile trawlers.
By rail, the units' military equipment and engineer personnel are delivered to regions where military units are permanently deployed, including the republics of Dagestan and North Ossetia-Alania.
Upon arrival at military units, military equipment will be serviced and prepared for the next stage of combat training.
Previously, it was reported that reinforced companies of combined arms formation battalion tactical groups from the Southern Military District were involved in tactical exercises. The exercises were carried out on the territory of 15 combined arms training camps in the district's area of responsibility."
NATO will only be able to gather this information with aircraft and drones capable of electronic intelligence, electronic reconnaissance, SIGINT, ELINT among others.
An electronic reconnaissance aircraft, capturing a series of radio signals, radar and other communication and surveillance equipment, can give this information if the plans and deadlines for an eventual attack on Ukraine are really captured and collected, this can be done, for example, with the RC-135W.
Probably not an axis of attack but it could be useful as a diversion. Russia supposedly now have 140k+ troops spread out over a massive land border of about 2000km not including Belarus. That is a massive front to supply logistically so they'll probably consolidate and concentrate their forces for the real thing.
The number of troops also seem a bit low to mount a full scale offensive of Ukraine. The Ukrainians have 200k+ active troops near the front. Numbers aren't everything of course but I would think Russia would follow Lanchester's Law and some more for something as risky as a large scale offensive. Didn't Shoigu claim to have 300k troops mobilized for Vostock 2018 exercise in the far east? Likely inflated but I'm sure Russia can deploy more than their current number.
Perhaps this is just a test round militarily. On the other hand, if Russia does not attack, I don't really see any gains made, just status quo to show for. Maybe Russia will succeed in breaking Germany from the rest of NATO with the Scholz talk. Big if.
Here's a good report on some of Russia's options to get lasting gains in Ukraine.
Presumably, war is still on the table as a last resort but it wouldn't be a bluff.
One thing's to be sure, Putin is keeping everyone guessing.
Ukraine finally mobilized but what will people think if there's no attack?
People think Putin backing off will strengthen Ukraine but I wouldn't be so sure.
In a super low trust, corrupt country like Ukraine, Ukrainians will mistrust the government more, and the people who cried wolf over an invasion that didn't happen will lose their credibility. Even if Biden and co. claim they deterred an invasion.
Presumably, war is still on the table as a last resort but it wouldn't be a bluff.
One thing's to be sure, Putin is keeping everyone guessing.
Ukraine finally mobilized but what will people think if there's no attack?
People think Putin backing off will strengthen Ukraine but I wouldn't be so sure.
In a super low trust, corrupt country like Ukraine, Ukrainians will mistrust the government more, and the people who cried wolf over an invasion that didn't happen will lose their credibility. Even if Biden and co. claim they deterred an invasion.
- Status