Ukraine Revolt/Civil War News, Reports, Data, etc.

Miragedriver

Brigadier
Training of the volunteers of Novorossia armies’ Motorola's unit. Footage from May/June recently released:
Training shots with the PTR (ProtivoTankovoe Ruzh'ë) antitank rifle from WW2. Unit leader Motorola (in English desert pattern trousers and black sweater) personally conducts the shooting

[video=youtube;kOp9HjqsKw0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOp9HjqsKw0&feature=player_embedded[/video]

Don’t forget to check out the http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/general-pictures/world-picture-day-7025.html


I will now get back to bottling my Malbec
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Both of those videos are quite elderly now Miragedriver, certainly for a fairly fast developing situation like we are seeing at the airport.

There is I think a more general point to be made. Over the last few weeks there has been a continuous almost obsessive feed of videos from the Airport, most of it concentrating on the minutia of the events and almost becoming a soap opera. This means that there was very little of real substance from either side, the Ukraine was concentrating on promoting its Cyborgs, while the NAf presented the Givi show.

In retrospect, certainly from the NAF perspective, it now appears that we have been following a far more subtle and sophisticated programme that was pure misdirection. While we were watching what was really not very much at the airport, the real action was happening outside as the NAF were taking ground along the Southern Perimeter and moving into Peski.

I am also really sure that something similar is happening to the North as well and pushing into Avdeyevka. Cassad published the latest map yesterday, but it is already 4 or 5 days old and misses what I believe will have been a critical four or five days of changes in the Airport region.

I am myself only just starting to appreciate the significance of the current position and its importance to the Pro Kiev forces.
I keep reading from various sources that the war for the Ukrainian side is all about highways and that they do not like going "green" in their operations. I am tending to see that as true and this makes the layout of the road network ever more critical.

The two key roads are M04 and the H20. The M04 is a major Highway that runs from through the two regional capitals of the Donbass coming out of Rostov on Don and after Donetsk heads West towards Dnepropetrovsk. The H20 is another major highway that runs North South from Mariupol to Donetsk and then on to Kharkov via Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.
Both roads intersect around the northern perimeter of the Airport (no doubt one of the reasons why it sited there in the first place. While Kiev holds both roads up to the intersection they have a full manoeuvre and supply loop to the North and West of the City and which cradles Avdeyevka in the crook of the intersection. I think that this route has enabled the Ukrainians to capitalise on their superior fire power and mobility and to be able to resupply and deploy along these roads and keep the defenders of Donetsk off balance. Yes the roads are the front line, but with artillery positions on Peski and Avdeyevka, they will have been able to put down suppressive fire on NAF positions and allow their convoys to move freely. I suspect this is much of what the continued shelling in NW Donetsk has actually been about.

So if the fall of Peski has deprived Kiev the use of the M04 along the northern perimeter of the airport and allowed the NAF to cross the road into Avdeyevka and work out the Ukrainain checkpoints heading north up the H20, this will be like cuttting a key strand of a spiders web. It also leaves Avdeyevka very isolated as there is nothing really to north or west of this suburb for some distance.

The last map did show a tantalising NAF bulge across the H20 north of Avdeyevka. I hope that the next map showing the events of the last week, will be far more revealing.
 

Miragedriver

Brigadier
Oath of another group of DNR soldiers:
[video=youtube;wTfbOAG-QLA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTfbOAG-QLA&feature=player_embedded[/video]


I will now get back to bottling my Malbec
 

Miragedriver

Brigadier
Russian armored column near the Ukrainian border
[video=youtube;UMp0Ripu1Ak]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMp0Ripu1Ak&feature=player_embedded[/video]



I will now get back to bottling my Malbec
 

delft

Brigadier
The website of my favorite radio station has an article about the Kiev security service SBU accusing their Russian collegues of trying to organise a terrorist attack using explosives on the factory that is used by the Dutch mission to receive and transmit the human remains and wreckage of MH17. The local Dutch journalist considers it difficult to judge the allegation.
Indeed it it difficult to imagine a purpose for such a terrorist action but you can't say that when you are for your presence dependent on Kiev.
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Map dated 17th Nov

264jpj5.jpg


According to this the NAF are not in Peski (or at least not far) We did see footage however showing close quarter fire fights, so this must have been at the eastern end of the town, or infiltration and sabotage groups have penetrated the lines and causing havoc.

the real revelation is to the north of Avdeyevka. You can see from the map that a "bulge" ( look for no:2 on the map) has indeed cut the H20 and the main railway line, which goes through the suburb. This looks like a full attempt to cut of the northern retreat from the town and to isolate, if not begin an encirclement of it. It would be a difficult position to hold, unless the ability of the Ukrainian forces to come up from Peski in the South had not been seriously curtailed.

This is definitely one to watch over the coming days.
 
Map dated 17th Nov

It looks like there are two pockets of Kiev forces midway between and south of Luhansk and Donetsk. I don't know how strong the Kiev forces there are but can't they be used in a break out or fake out to attack Donetsk from the north/east together with a thrust from the west? Or attack Luhansk from the south together with a push from the north? Or even if they just remain where they are or roam around that region they can be a flanking threat to both Donetsk and Luhansk.
 

SampanViking

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It looks like there are two pockets of Kiev forces midway between and south of Luhansk and Donetsk. I don't know how strong the Kiev forces there are but can't they be used in a break out or fake out to attack Donetsk from the north/east together with a thrust from the west? Or attack Luhansk from the south together with a push from the north? Or even if they just remain where they are or roam around that region they can be a flanking threat to both Donetsk and Luhansk.

Most of the positions of the Pro Kiev forces are still recovering from the damage inflicted on them over the summer and are unlikely to assume anything other than a defensive posture for the foreseeable future. The big exception is the Debaltsevo salient, where a considerable offensive capability is concentrated.

How would it be likely to be used? Presumably the lesson of last summer has been learned, which is that grand thrusts deep into NAF territory (to try and split Donetsk and Lughansk) invariably end in Disaster. A more realistic mission would be to reattempt dividing Gorlivka from Donetsk (city to the North East of Donetsk and the forming the western face of the salient). This becomes all the more likely given that the local commander Bezlar and his associates are at odds with the newly elected DPR leadership.

By the same token of course, the Debaltsevo salient is a prime candidate for encirclement and forming into a new cauldron.
 
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