Ukraine Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Let's not forget the supplies are not coming in a vacuum. At first, everyone was unsure how Russia would respond. Everyone was unsure if Ukraine would be able to hold on at all. There was no information as far as how effective logistics interdiction by the Russians would be.

Why send expensive equipment unless you know it can be moved to where it was needed without being blown up? Or if it provokes Russia into a war? OR if the Ukrainians are going to fold before the weapons can be deployed?

Javelins and NLAWs are far, far cheaper than AS-90s, Caesars and M-777s and if the Russians blew them up, well, lesson learned relatively cheaply.
ATGMs can be transported a lot easier than bigger platforms, at the start of the war they were mostly being transported in civilian vehicles according to pictures being released.

Once Ukrainians shift over to larger transport vehicles, Russians may start targeting them, or the road/rail infrastructure. Or maybe they'll continue pussyfooting around.
 

anzha

Captain
Registered Member
Once Ukrainians shift over to larger transport vehicles, Russians may start targeting them, or the road/rail infrastructure. Or maybe they'll continue pussyfooting around.

FWIW, large platforms are already fighting in the Donbas: the Zuzana 155mm and those T-72s.

IDK what numbers as yet. They should not have been difficult to have seen coming though.

Not sure what that implies for Russia.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
FWIW, large platforms are already fighting in the Donbas: the Zuzana 155mm and those T-72s.

IDK what numbers as yet. They should not have been difficult to have seen coming though.

Not sure what that implies for Russia.
Both self propelled. Probably filled with gas on the border with Poland and driven straight to the front line. If they make it brilliant, if not it was no loss for the Ukrainians. But it's one thing to get it to the frontline and another to maintain logistical supply lines to keep them fighting. Then again the life expectancy for Ukrainian tanks doesn't seem to be very long so maybe they have the right strategy.
 

anzha

Captain
Registered Member
Both self propelled. Probably filled with gas on the border with Poland and driven straight to the front line.

1300 km from Hbrenne, Poland to Kramartorsk, Ukraine. 17 hour drive if nonstop, sure. However, there's a reason they use tank transporters where possible.

Then again the life expectancy for Ukrainian tanks doesn't seem to be very long so maybe they have the right strategy.

I don't think we have a lot of good data as the the life expectancy of Ukrainian tanks. All the data online is suspect so far.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
I don't think we have a lot of good data as the the life expectancy of Ukrainian tanks. All the data online is suspect so far.
Don't need online data. Sending ancient eastern European tanks straight to the front line tells me everything I need to know about how Ukrainian tanks have fared so far.
 

anzha

Captain
Registered Member
Don't need online data. Sending ancient eastern European tanks straight to the front line tells me everything I need to know about how Ukrainian tanks have fared so far.

Subjective opinions are dangerous. It leads to seeing what we want to and confirmation bias.

After all, didn't we all - me included! - think Russia would have crushed Ukraine by now? Subjective opinion. And, wow, we were wrong.

The alternate flip side opinion to yours is the Ukrainians are moving the equipment east to mass for their own attack to take the DNR+LNR.

As such, I'll keep to data.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Czechia and Slovakia have volunteered to host the maintenance depots. So long as the equipment can be recovered and sent back, I'm not sure they'll have a problem.

Adding to the artillery being sent, the UK is sending 20 AS-90s and the Italians are sending at least some of their Panzerhaubitze 2ks. The number of artillery pieces and SPA being sent is getting to be VERY large. I think there's somewhere between 10 to 15 artillery battalions worth being sent/have been sent.

The Germans seem to be willing to send 100 tank transporters. Scholz may fret any second now though. Watch the logistics aspect: logistics trucks, etc. I think logistics will be far more important than anything. Whomever gets there with the fastest with the mostest wins, to use poor Americanism.

Raputitsa seems to be continuing at least for two more weeks based on the weather forecast. If the Ukrainians can move enough equipment east, shore up their flanks and then...a whole lot more becomes possible. Ukrainians really ought to be saying 'slava raputitsa!'

The inability of Russia to interdict from the West to Ukraine supplies has been more than shocking to me. But then, a lot of Russia's performance has been shocking to me. I should stop being shocked at some point. I hope.

At any rate, Russia's bluff, as far as willing to start a war with NATO over what NATO does in Ukraine, has been called. The West will provide the maintenance needed.

Actually, there are many Russian claims of successful interdiction and destruction of West to Ukraine supplies. Its constantly mentioned in their MOD reports mentioning specific targets and units destroyed.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
The Russian MOD is as accurate as the Ukrainian, IMO.

IFF they provide photographic proof, then I'll say they are correct.

I don't look at photographic proof, which can easily be faked or by photographs with a false context. By the way, there are plenty of Russian sourced photos of captured weapons, and there might be a hint that some Ukrainians are enterprising and selling these weapons to the Russians and to the weapons black market.

While both sides are undertaking propaganda, historical precedence suggests to me the side that undertakes the most voiciferous, the most loudest propaganda is the side that's more desperate and losing especially if the leader is constantly begging for aid and arms. That for me looks like Ukraine.

Also I look at strategic movements and positions. Who is taking who and occupying what. So far, despite having more battle tanks than the Russians, with Ukraine over 3200 at the start of the campaign, and still getting reinforcements, their inability to mount a credible large scale counteroffensive against the Donbass and Lunetsk regions, inability to rescue the Mariupol pocket, and so on, suggests to me that the Ukrainian position looks far worst. I am not asking that Ukraine should mount a tank offensive to Moscow, which by the way, the Germans did with far less tanks, but for goodness sakes, at least mount an armored offensive right in your own territory.

As Russian air and missile attacks often focus on ammunition, fuel and weapons depots, the loss of fuel can be crippling to a tank formation. This is classic World War 2 tactic where the Soviets hit German fuel depots behind the lines via air power, which cripples the ability of German tank columns to move.

Training of new weapons can take weeks, if not months. To suggest you can train civilian militias to be proficient with them in a few days is nonsense. There is a report or alleged video of a Ukrainian solder trying to fix his NLAW with a battery, and commentary that the weapons being provided are not reliable. Another report, again, alleged, is that the weapons are not user friendly or easy to use (understandable when comparing to Soviet era weapons because Soviet era weapons are meant for peasants to use.) Despite the thousands of ATGMs that were shipped into the Ukraine, it also seems that the Russian tanks are far from destroyed.
 

anzha

Captain
Registered Member
Also I look at strategic movements and positions. Who is taking who and occupying what. So far, despite having more battle tanks than the Russians, with Ukraine over 3200 at the start of the campaign, and still getting reinforcements, their inability to mount a credible large scale counteroffensive against the Donbass and Lunetsk regions, inability to rescue the Mariupol pocket, and so on, suggests to me that the Ukrainian position looks far worst. I am not asking that Ukraine should mount a tank offensive to Moscow, which by the way, the Germans did with far less tanks, but for goodness sakes, at least mount an armored offensive right in your own territory.

If the Ukrainians are getting mauled worse than the Russians and large scale offensives are currently viable, why have the Russians been unable to make a breakthrough in Donbas? Why have they been unable to push forward more than mere kilometers? After all, they repositioned their forces and have at least around 80 BTG in the LNR+DNR plus the local troops.

You are ignoring the very thing that the Russians have: the terrain and, more specifically, the Raputitsa.

Large scale offensives and counteroffensives are not viable until the ground dries. The Russians made a critical error by launching too late in the season. They ought to have either launched their offensive earlier in winter or in May after General Mud has withdrawn.

The Russians should know this. Yet, it appears they forgot. Just like they forgot to not dig in around Chernobyl in the exclusion zone.

That the Russians have forgotten the rules of the terrain has cost them dearly.

It very well may be the Ukrainians have lost a lot of equipment; however, the terrain and the weather's effect on it are why the Ukrainians have not mounted major counteroffensives.

Do you really think Ukraine, with its corruption and years of neglect of its military prior to 2014, really had 3,200 operational tanks at the start of the war?
 
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