U.S VS Iran getting close

IRGC's ability to monitor US naval activity in the area has been proven via publicly available IRGC UAV surveillance of the USS Ronald Reagan as it repositioned itself earlier in 2006.

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The video of the alledged survallence of CVN-76 by the Iranian UAV never occuried. At least not on the days they claimed. For on the day they claim they overflew CVN-76 it was not in the Persian Gulf.

I've seen the video. And it appears to me to have been taken some years ago. Whereas there are clearly S-3 Vikings on the flight deck. CVN-76 deployed with no S-3's onboard.

Personally I do not know where the Iranian video came from. My guess is that it was filmed some years ago by an Iranian P-3 over flying the Gulf region.

The IRGC also has its own dedicated air force seperate from the IRIAF, and there is no doubt that US air supremacy will prevail fairly quickly, but considering that the IRGC air force is not structured to follow conventional rules of engagement, it's not a far stretch to assume that "kamikaze-esque" low altitude runs could be part of their battle order.

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This scenerio is possible. However the IRGC air force will have great difficulty operating their systems once the US forces start emitting ECM.

I am rather sceptical about the liklihood of a strike against Iran with regard to its Nucleur weapons program. Mainly, this is because the other Axis of Evil Club member, would probably conclude it was next, very soon and decide to get its retaliation in first.

Not something I think any of us wish to seriously contemplate.

That is a posibility, but I wonder why would Iran use one of their few remaining P-3s for such a risky manouver, unless ofcourse the P-3 was operating inside Iranian territorial waters, perhaps near the Strait of Hormuz, it wouldn't be quite risky.

But if the "voyeur" was international waters, a P-3 orion, would be fairly easy to detect, intercept, and escort away. Whereas a small and expendible UAV, which Iran has been producing for several years, would be a lot harder to detect and also not a big deal if lost, as in the case with the Iranian UAV shot down near the Israeli coast last summer.

I've read that there have been many games of cat and mouse over the persian gulf between US and Iran, this is probably just another one. Hopefully it will remain a game of cat and mouse

("UAV" video can be seen here )

That is a posibility, but I wonder why would Iran use one of their few remaining P-3s for such a risky manouver, unless ofcourse the P-3 was operating inside Iranian territorial waters, perhaps near the Strait of Hormuz, it wouldn't be quite risky.

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I did mention that I think that film was taken some years ago. I said;

Personally I do not know where the Iranian video came from. My guess is that it was filmed some years ago by an Iranian P-3 over flying the Gulf region.

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In 1981 when I was on board CV-66 in the Gulf region we were overflown several times by Iranian P-3's. They were always escorted by USN Tomcats. No, I never saw an Iranian Tomcat overfly an USN CV..

I've read that there have been many games of cat and mouse over the persian gulf between US and Iran, this is probably just another one. Hopefully it will remain a game of cat and mouse

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Very true. It's been going on since 1979. Hopefully it will come to nothing and not result in another Operation Preying Mantis.



Because if it did it would come to much more than occuried that day.

bd popeye said:

I did mention that I think that film was taken some years ago. I said;

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Yeah, weren't there F-4s on the deck in those pictures? I seem to remember you pointing that out and seeing it myself. Even if there isn't its obvious that those pictures are not really very recent.

You're very right on the issue of American retaliation to Iranian provocations. There would be terrible consequences that would far exceed any retaliation by Iran from Operation Preying Mantis. The Iranians did retaliate for that Operation, but it was not obviously retaliation for that specfic provocation. They kidnapped and killed several American officials in Beirut, including the CIA station cheif and a Marine Colonel. Also Iran executed terrorist attacks through proxy organizations. Oh wait....I just checked and those kidnappings were before Operation Preying Mantis. Oh well. However the example is still a legitimate one. It would be expected that the IRGC (Revolutionary Guards) and Iranian Intelligence would use their contacts in the terrorist world to provide the resources for terrorist retaliation on American assets in the Gulf and around the world. I think that would be the most likely form of Iranian retaliation (aside from increased aid to America's enemies in Iraq) in the event of a limited American attack like Operation Preying Mantis. Of course we won't see an exact repeat because of the nuclear issue but I'm just using that as an example for scale.

Iran is working to have elements of the Basij form a 1 million-man ground force. In addition to the IRGC and normal Iranian military that makes for around 1.4 to 1.5 million ground forces, the total personnel of our entire active military.

They're also moving forward with several projects, most importantly the Shafaq and FB-44, which would essentially be the Iranian answers to the F-35 and F-22 respectively.

So far there's nothing to suggest that the "Shafaq" will be any kind of a threat to their American counterparts. From what is known, it is a subsonic prototype featuring a single RD-33 (Mig 29 engine) and radar absorbing materials. As for the other plane you mentioned, I've also heard it referred to as "Iranian Lion" but very little is known about it outside US military intelligence and Iranian R&D circles.

At best, the other fighter should be a locally built plane based on upgraded components of reverse engineered F-14s. Iran is still flying somewhere around 45 of these birds, out of a total of 79 that were delivered prior to the Islamic revolution. All of which have undergone substantial upgrades over the years, such as air frame weight reduction by replacing analog electronic parts with entirely digital systems among other changes like arming a few with prototype Air to Air MIM-23 missiles.

I personally think Iran's best defense would be it's ballistic missiles and rocket arsenal, couple that with a priority on asymmetrical and guirella warfare and you make for a very uninviting target.

And regarding the UAV video of the USS Ronald Reagan, the planes on her deck were not F-4s, but infact USN F-18s, just take another look at the link i posted

a new development, the President of Iran has announced a new series of Missile exercises are to begin shortly, apparently in response to the deployment of the 2nd Carrier Strike Group to the Persian Gulf.

So far there's nothing to suggest that the "Shafaq" will be any kind of a threat to their American counterparts. From what is known, it is a subsonic prototype featuring a single RD-33 (Mig 29 engine) and radar absorbing materials.

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It is based off the MIG LFI. Also, while it is subsonic as far as we know, it's not all that difficult for them to make it supersonic.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss these projects, though. I doubt they'll be to the same standards of F-22 and F-35, but if they've sufficiently stealthy and are given Phoenix missiles, it makes things much different.

TEHRAN, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Iran has barred 38 inspectors from the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), from entering the country, an Iranian politician was quoted by Iran's ISNA news agency as saying on Monday.

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Hi to all sinodefence forum members from Finland! My first post, please be gentle

Why would Iranian leadership do that? They just threw away much of the political restraints against military intervention.

Imho they might have some ace in their sleeve on which they count on very much. Iranians are skilled diplomats, but bluffing with so high stakes, I don't buy it - their foregin politics no #1 priority has always been regime survival, and now it seems that they don't care.

Any suggestions on this one?

Höhööö lisää mejän heimoo :nana:

Welcome to SDF :china: :china: