Trump 2.0 official thread

iewgnem

Captain
Registered Member
Lmao… you guys are talking as if Japan is some poor third world backward sub Saharan African nation and not the worlds third largest economic power and one of the most advanced countries on earth (even ahead of Britain, France and other western countries outside the US) . So Pakistan, India, North Korea (and even South Africa, Libya, Taiwan once almost developed nukes but had to drop it due to presssure from the USA) can develop nukes and sustain it but you guys believe Japan can not? lol Seriously?

As I said before , the only Reason Japan and even South Korea have not developed nukes long ago is only because of US objections else they would long have developed nukes (and yes they can easily do so and sustain it obviously ,they are not some poor desperate country with a backward economy . lol To think other wise is being naive and even just old plain bias.)
so I still believe US presence is a stabilizing factor in Asia (and is still a good thing for China ironically to keep these 2 big powers(they are not insignificant countries ) Japan and South Korea in check and stop them from going nuclear(like Taiwan tried but was stopped by the US) and even demilitarizing. And no you guys should stop being stupid, even if Japan develop nukes China will not invade Japan, CCP will never even consider that, you guys should stop being paranoid and overreacting . The only place I see the CCP intervening militarily and launching a full scale invasion is if Taiwan declares independence. That’s THE ONLY Conflict CCP is likely to engage in this coming years if Taiwan goes rogue, but as long as the status quo remains it won’t happen. So let’s be realistic instead of using emotions/feelings.
Finally, we have to keep in mind that Trump so actually not that bad a president, unlike every other American president , Trump has never even called China a national security threat to the US, which is actually shocking when you think about it, since all American leaders until Trump have always pushed this narrative and explicitly stated that China is a national security threat and danger to the US. Trump by contrast is merely a business minded guy who thinks not just China but all American allies and non allies have been taking advantage of the US(in fact he believes American allies have been exploiting the US far more than China actually, which is something he publicly said just a week ago) ,so his actions are targeted at every other country not just China as we have seen with tariffs. I actually think Trump is someone China can negotiate with better than other US presidents. Plus he genuinely hates war and doesn’t want the US getting involved in far off conflicts outside US immediate neighborhood , he’s more of a Monroe doctrine advocate of keeping and focusing the US presence in the Americas and consolidating US power there than venturing around the world dispersing and spending vast sums to sustain an empire which is more and more untenable and unsustainable for the US , that’s what he believes. So overall he’s a fairly sensible and rational leader in this regards , even though he often does some sporadic and unpredictable things as well, but overall he’s a good leader for China.
You should really familiarize yourself with the NPT, why it was created and who created them.
The ability to build nukes is not the primary requirement to having nukes, and one does not need to know how to build them to have them.

The primary requirement to building nukes is being able to deal with the full spectrum consequences of trying.
Which means you either have to be powerful enough to suppress the consequences, or have nothing to lose.
India can build it because they are big enough to tank the sanctions, which they were under for a long time. Pakistan was given nukes to balance India. North Korea has nothing to lose, Israel has enough influence to suppress the consequence, and the UNSC members are all powerful enough to veto anyone who object.

Japan and South Korea can't build nukes because they have no ability to suppress the consequences and they have everything to lose from the crippling economic sanctions and embargo that it will induce.

The reason US has to keep Japan on a leash is not because Americans fear Japan will nuke them, it's because, for the same reason Trump had to pull on Takachi's leash, that its America itself that cannot handle the consequences breaking the NPT, because their ability to bully and invade countries instantly evaporate if everyone suddenly has nukes.

Japan is on America's leash, and America has to obey China's wishes, that's the chain of command. China does not wish Japan to have nukes, end of story.
 
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Wrought

Senior Member
Registered Member
That is an old estimate.

It's 1500 warheads by 2030 now.

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Uh, did you read your own source? 1,500 by 2035. Not 2030.

The general said he agreed with other military commanders who declared
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nuclear expansion to be “breathtaking” in speed and scale.
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, he stated, increased its nuclear arsenal from around 300 warheads in 2020 to 600 today, “with projections of 1,500 by 2035.”

“With projections of 1,500 warheads by 2035,
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remains intent on modernizing, diversifying, and expanding its nuclear posture,” Gen.
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stated. “Over the next decade,
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probably will continue to rapidly modernize, diversify, and expand its nuclear forces.”

And especially, right at the bottom.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timeframe for when
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is expected to have 1,500 warheads.
 

Eventine

Senior Member
Registered Member
China realistically needs enough nuclear weapons to guarantee MAD with the US, EU, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and even Russia combined. Remember that if things get that bad and it becomes a matter of survival or extinction, the only strong enough deterrence is one that can ensure the globally mobile Western elites have no places where they can run & rebuild. It is not out of the question for Western elites to sacrifice most of their empire to exterminate China, if they believe they have a back up plan after.
 

iewgnem

Captain
Registered Member
China realistically needs enough nuclear weapons to guarantee MAD with the US, EU, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and even Russia combined. Remember that if things get that bad and it becomes a matter of survival or extinction, the only strong enough deterrence is one that can ensure the globally mobile Western elites have no places where they can run & rebuild. It is not out of the question for Western elites to sacrifice most of their empire to exterminate China, if they believe they have a back up plan after.
This. Simple MAD isnt enough for western countries where the ruling class doesnt even identify as the same nationality as those being ruled and consider western population tools to serve the choosen.

We already withnessed this during their bioattack on China, the killing of million of western population meant nothing to them, they simply opened the borders and imported more slaves. In the end it was only the threat of economic collapse that forced them to stop, not the death count.

Simple MAD doesnt really apply to a western culture that only values the choosen and places no value on human life in general, so while nuclear MAD against the US is important to establish baseline deterance, China need to avtually have the physical ability to wipe out all western elites anywhere and everywhere.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
You should really familiarize yourself with the NPT, why it was created and who created them.
The ability to build nukes is not the primary requirement to having nukes, and one does not need to know how to build them to have them.

The primary requirement to building nukes is being able to deal with the full spectrum consequences of trying.
Which means you either have to be powerful enough to suppress the consequences, or have nothing to lose.
India can build it because they are big enough to tank the sanctions, which they were under for a long time. Pakistan was given nukes to balance India. North Korea has nothing to lose, Israel has enough influence to suppress the consequence, and the UNSC members are all powerful enough to veto anyone who object.

Japan and South Korea can't build nukes because they have no ability to suppress the consequences and they have everything to lose from the crippling economic sanctions and embargo that it will induce.

The reason US has to keep Japan on a leash is not because Americans fear Japan will nuke them, it's because, for the same reason Trump had to pull on Takachi's leash, that its America itself that cannot handle the consequences breaking the NPT, because their ability to bully and invade countries instantly evaporate if everyone suddenly has nukes.

Japan is on America's leash, and America has to obey China's wishes, that's the chain of command. China does not wish Japan to have nukes, end of story.

While it can be broadly included under your ‘full spectrum consequences’ umbrella, I think one fundamentally important aspect to nuclear breakout that you have not given nearly enough attention to is centrally important to the question of Japan or SK acquiring nuclear weapons - that of who is ready and willing to stop you from achieving nuclear breakout, by any means necessary.

While sanctions and embargo’s will undoubtedly be incurred by both should they be found to be taking concrete steps towards nuclear breakout, those are far from the only options available to other interested parties.

If you strip things back to bare basics, beyond the P5, all the other nuclear armed states today only acquired their nuclear weapons because no one cared enough about stopping them to go to war over the issue. While there are many states who were fully willing and able to take the sanctions and embargo’s hit to acquire nuclear weapons that were ultimately prevented from doing so by outside powers willing and able to employ decisive military force to stop it. Saddam’s Iraq was the most obvious example, with Iran today proving that same calculus still hold true.

There is zero question that should SK and especially Japan race for nuclear breakout, direct military strikes will not only be on the table, it will be very high on the list of countermeasures that will be employed very quickly. This is because of their pre-existing technical capabilities and civil nuclear infrastructure, both could achieve nuclear breakout in relatively short timeframes. Factoring in delays in detecting such efforts and verification needs, it would actually be unreasonable to assume that once detected, you could expect to have enough time left for sanctions and embargo’s to actually have any chance of working. By the time the economic pain really becomes unbearable, nuclear breakout would already have been achieved, and they could then do the NK route to using nuclear brinksmanship to stave off military attack and just endure the sanctions.

This is China’s quiet part. They will absolutely not tolerate a nuclear armed Japan, and basically as soon as China have concrete proof that Japan is pursuing nuclear weapons, it will be forced to respond with direct, overwhelming kinetic strikes to prevent imminent Japanese nuclear breakout. And at that point, I don’t think either side can realistically back down from a full spectrum war as there are too much historical baggage and a fundamental lack of trust to make any negotiated peace acceptable to both sides.
 
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