Trump 2.0 official thread

[Michael90]

-The problem with nukes is that is a big boy club, Russia, the US , China, France. you have noobs like North Korea or Israel but is more like a big boy thing. One the requisite of joining the big boy nuke club is that once you have nukes you have to learn to live with the fear of getting hit by nukes, like India and Pakistan or Russia and the US, China and the US. Being the country that US used to scare the Soviets with their nukes I don't think that the Japanese public have the appetite of living with that fear.

-Nuclear weapons are costly, being in the big boy club doesn't come cheap. So for Japan a country that is struggling to meet their defense spending, the average right wing Japanese politicians have to tell to the average Japanese voter that people pensions and welfare programs are going to be sacrificed in other to pursuit a nuclear arms race in Asia STARTED BY their own clownish right wing politicians OR sacrifice conventional weapons programs.

-Another problem, is that you have to design a nuke, even if the US give Japan a nuke design, you have test your nuke to make sure is going to work in a real war scenario like the Big Boys in the Nuke club did, Supercomputers and lasers has their limits. If Japan test a nuke, apart from ruining Japan reputation, it will send China nuclear weapons program in overdrive, to the South Koreans to build nukes, the North Koreans to built more and bigger nukes and worse of at all for Japan to the Russians to move part of their arsenal to target Japan.

-A nuclear Japan it will be seen as immediate threat by China, It probably send China nuclear program in overdrive probably forcing them to reach nuclear parity with the US in a short time, the US would not be happy about that. China nuclear arsenal and doctrine has being designed to deal with the US not Japan and giving the closeness of Japan to China it could force the country to abandon their "non first use" doctrine so in a emergency they could take enemy nukes and cripple a country before is used on them.

-The Japanese are an ally of the US, that is a big problem for Russia. Is almost sure that a nuclear Japan would be forced to attack Russia. So in the case of a Nuclear Exchange between the US and Russia EVEN IF Japan is not involved in the war, just by the fact that is an ally of the US with nukes is almost sure that the Russians are going to try to severely cripple the country. Pretty much like they would likely do with against the UK and France.

-That leave us with the biggest problem that Japan has for nukes, space, just by seeing a map of Japan it seems that there isn't a single place in that country that you can put a nuke or storage nukes that when its get hit a city and inhabitants are vaporize in a instant. The average nuke comes in three nice flavors, Landbase (Silos and Mobile), Air based (Bombers), Sea Based (Submarines). Everything in land could be hit, Air bases, storage facilities, silos and TEL. The best option would be only submarines but that would be extremely costly compared to Land base options and would severely limit the size of any nuclear arsenal compared to land base. Also would create a submarine cat and mouse arms race with China and Russia.

Yeah, the Big Boy Club. The cool guys with nukes. Joining the club Is costly and come with tradeoffs. Nukes are really expensive and difficult to make weapons and most states would rather use them in extreme cases and not in a conventional war where there are cheaper more abundant options. But that change when you have nukes.

And the situation only get worse when you have bad blood and unsolved issues with your neighbors. The thread of nuclear war will be always be there. The world just tight their butts every single time that the Pakistan and India even insult each other, hopping that these two countries don't commit the biggest genocide act in Human history.

Japan is seen as more or less seen as a threat by China, Russia, North Korean and EVEN South Korea. The country has worse dynamics that than US has with China, Russia and even North Korea, for the US, the dynamic between them and China or Russia is just great power politics, given Japan's past and their right wingers is much worse. So Nukes in Japan would likely change the dynamics for the much much worse.

Lmao… you guys are talking as if Japan is some poor third world backward sub Saharan African nation and not the worlds third largest economic power and one of the most advanced countries on earth (even ahead of Britain, France and other western countries outside the US) . So Pakistan, India, North Korea (and even South Africa, Libya, Taiwan once almost developed nukes but had to drop it due to presssure from the USA) can develop nukes and sustain it but you guys believe Japan can not? lol Seriously?

As I said before , the only Reason Japan and even South Korea have not developed nukes long ago is only because of US objections else they would long have developed nukes (and yes they can easily do so and sustain it obviously ,they are not some poor desperate country with a backward economy . lol To think other wise is being naive and even just old plain bias.)
so I still believe US presence is a stabilizing factor in Asia (and is still a good thing for China ironically to keep these 2 big powers(they are not insignificant countries ) Japan and South Korea in check and stop them from going nuclear(like Taiwan tried but was stopped by the US) and even demilitarizing. And no you guys should stop being stupid, even if Japan develop nukes China will not invade Japan, CCP will never even consider that, you guys should stop being paranoid and overreacting . The only place I see the CCP intervening militarily and launching a full scale invasion is if Taiwan declares independence. That’s THE ONLY Conflict CCP is likely to engage in this coming years if Taiwan goes rogue, but as long as the status quo remains it won’t happen. So let’s be realistic instead of using emotions/feelings.
Finally, we have to keep in mind that Trump so actually not that bad a president, unlike every other American president , Trump has never even called China a national security threat to the US, which is actually shocking when you think about it, since all American leaders until Trump have always pushed this narrative and explicitly stated that China is a national security threat and danger to the US. Trump by contrast is merely a business minded guy who thinks not just China but all American allies and non allies have been taking advantage of the US(in fact he believes American allies have been exploiting the US far more than China actually, which is something he publicly said just a week ago) ,so his actions are targeted at every other country not just China as we have seen with tariffs. I actually think Trump is someone China can negotiate with better than other US presidents. Plus he genuinely hates war and doesn’t want the US getting involved in far off conflicts outside US immediate neighborhood , he’s more of a Monroe doctrine advocate of keeping and focusing the US presence in the Americas and consolidating US power there than venturing around the world dispersing and spending vast sums to sustain an empire which is more and more untenable and unsustainable for the US , that’s what he believes. So overall he’s a fairly sensible and rational leader in this regards , even though he often does some sporadic and unpredictable things as well, but overall he’s a good leader for China.

 

[Michael90]

How little Japan cares is actually kinda impressive. They're already in recession and China's only starting to dribble the ball a little with tourism and seafood bans; China can ratchet up and crumple them with export bans on rare earths, chips, etc... Japan ought to be scared, but they're not. Most Japanese media is celebrating the drop in Chinese tourists because they don't care about the economic impact. (Honestly, most countries don't like tourists but they deal with them because they want their money, just like China does, and we want their money because we have hopes and dreams to spend that money towards, but Japan does not.) Most countries care about their GDP and scramble to get out of recession and definitely avoid taking any heavy hits that could worsen it. But Japan doesn't care; they're basically thinking, "What am I going to do with money? What do I want out of it? To be better than Korea? Not worth it. Recession is fine." Japan has a dire demographic issue but instead of making immigration easier, they make it harder because they are content to just die the way they are: all Japanese. I can understand that they don't want Indians or Filipinos but if Japan wanted, they could attract a bunch of young East Asian Japanese culture enthusiasts that would sell out 100% of their heritage to assimilate and call themselves Japanese... but nope, no on that too. Japan is truly like a 100 year old man: he's got no growth potential or desire and he'd rather die right now on the spot than to have to change any of his old habits for some improvement. Desperado.... neat.

lol Japan is the most conservative society I have ever been to. They make even the pure blooded Chinese purists/ultra nationalists look like liberals lool. It’s also one of the reasons foreign brands never really dominated Japan’s market(or very few do) unlike in China or other Asian countries even if their products is at par with japans homegrown products or even better. Japanese overwhelmingly prefer consuming Japanese.They are a special breed in this aspect. lol

 

[tokenanalyst]

Lmao… you guys are talking as if Japan is some poor third world backward sub Saharan African nation and not the worlds third largest economic power and one of the most advanced countries on earth (even ahead of Britain, France and other western countries outside the US) . So Pakistan, India, North Korea (and even South Africa, Libya, Taiwan once almost developed nukes but had to drop it due to presssure from the USA) can develop mukes and sustain it but you guys believe Japan can not? lol Seriously?
as I said before , the only Reason Japan and even South Korea have not developed nukes long ago is only because of US objections else they would long have developed nukes (and yes they can easily sustain it obviously , they are not some poor desperate country with a backward economy . lol To think other wise is being naive and even just old plain bias.
so I still believe US presence is a stabilizing factor in Asia (and is still a good thing for China ironically to keep these 2 big powers(they are not insignificant countries ) Japan and South Korea in check and stop them from going nuclear and even demilitarizing. And no you guys should stop being stupid, even if Japan develop nukes China will not invade Japan, CCP will never even consider that, you guys should stop being paranoid and overreacting . The only place I see the CCP intervening militarily and launching a full scale invasion is if Taiwan declares independence. That’s THE ONLY Conflict CCP is likely to engage in this coming years if Taiwan goes rogue, but as long as the status quo remains it won’t happen. So let’s be realistic instead of using emotions/feelings

Oh no no, Japan have the money, even though due they have a hefty welfare state that would probably limit the spending. Different from India or Pakistan where people are basically on their own and North Korea where people basically don't have a say in the matter.

Second issue is that when you have nuclear weapons you are expected to get hit with nuclear weapons. The Chinese live under fear that the US will nuke them, the Russian the same, US live under the fear of a Russian attack or Chinese retaliation. I we don't even need to talk about India and Pakistan. Paranoia is part of having nuclear weapons. Remains to be seem if the Japanese public wants to live that way. Maybe the get accustomed.

Third issue is that the relationship Japan and its neighbors is full of bad blood. Even with South Korea. The rivalry between China and the US is different, there is a level of respect between the two nations. Between China and Japan, it will be more like Pakistan and India or worse, with the world tightening their butts in the hopes that a conflict for a few rocks in the pacific doesn't escalate in a full blown nuclear crisis. Then is Russia, a country that they not only have territorial issues but also will attack with nukes ANY US ally that host nukes.

Fourth issue is that Japan too concentrated and too urban. The country will disproportionately suffer in any nuclear exchange, even a small regional exchange with North Korea will be disproportionately catastrophic for Japan even more than North Korea who is more rural than Japan. I think it will not take more 10 DF-5 nuclear warheads to kill 70-80 million people, for a country of 120 million is a death sentence. That issue will severely limit their ability to host land base systems out of fear.

They can go all nuclear whatever they want, is their country and money. But they will have the learn to accept the nuclear arms race they provoked and live with the fear of nuclear annihilation. I can imagine Japan hosting nuclear warheads close to Hiroshima city just sitting there waiting for a first nuclear strike. That would be something. The irony would be interesting to say the least.

 

[another505]

Japan getting nukes might possibly be the biggest boon to Chinese foreign policy. 'Non interference in other nation's affairs' will have to give way in light of a nuclear Japan, and China will actually force the complete de-militarisation of Japan and occupation of the Japanese home islands.

Come on, prc wont invade japan. You can force denuclearization without occupation.

 

[tokenanalyst]

Come on, prc wont invade japan. You can force denuclearization without occupation.

I will probably force China hands into almost reach nuclear parity with the US in a short time and will probably reevaluate their no first use policy. A policy made to assure everyone that their nuclear arsenal was aimed at the US and no them. That will trigger India to build more nukes and force Pakistan to build more nukes. North Korea will also accelerate their nuclear program and South Korea will try to get them too no just because the fear of North Korea but because they don't trust the Japanese very much.

 

[AndrewS]

I will probably force China hands into almost reach nuclear parity with the US in a short time and will probably reevaluate their no first use policy. A policy made to assure everyone that their nuclear arsenal was aimed at the US and no them. That will trigger India to build more nukes and force Pakistan to build more nukes. North Korea will also accelerate their nuclear program and South Korea will try to get them too no just because the fear of North Korea but because they don't trust the Japanese very much.

The Pentagon is saying the number of Chinese nuclear warheads will reach 1500 by the year 2030, which is parity with the US and Russia, in terms of deployable warheads.

That implies an average of 180 being added every year from 2025-2030.

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Also, both Russia and the US each have 3000+ additional warheads in storage.

So I (unfortunately) expect that China would continue producing more warheads after 2030.

 

[tokenanalyst]

The Pentagon is saying the number of Chinese nuclear warheads will reach 1500 by the year 2030, which is parity with the US and Russia, in terms of deployable warheads.

That implies an average of 180 being added every year from 2025-2030.

---

Also, both Russia and the US each have 3000+ additional warheads in storage.

So I (unfortunately) expect that China would continue producing more warheads after 2030.

A nuclear Japan will put that in overdrive, probably forcing China to restart production Tritium, HEU and weapons grade Plutonium. And everyone else in Asia.

 

[AndrewS]

A nuclear Japan will put that in overdrive, probably forcing China to restart production Tritium, HEU and weapons grade Plutonium. And everyone else in Asia.

China is already adding 900 warheads every 5 years. And it takes a few years to ramp up.

And realistically, whatever nuclear arsenal Japan builds, the current Chinese production rate will still be far higher