Trump 2.0 official thread

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
You are correct. My exposure to these dynamics come from a stint doing data science for banks. I'm certainly not a SME.

Wouldn't the current export restrictions only cause greater urgency in on-shoring production?
On-shoring production is a different issue from building up and maintaining reserves of production inputs. On-shoring is impossible in most strategically important cases (for numerous obvious reasons that we can get into if you like) and can take 5-15 years even in the cases that are possible. Building up reserves though can be achieved in several months if China does not control exports of strategic materials.
 

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
If you are going to get into a car crash, does it matter whether your seat belt is buckled or not? Even if your car has seat belts, if they are not buckled and worn correctly you will still be screwed. It is in China's interest for the US change from unbuckled to buckled to take as long as possible, even if it cannot be delayed indefinitely. During that transition period, it is when the US will be more restrained and discouraged from taking large actions that can speed the car towards a wall (US-China military conflict). We want to delay that as long as possible so that by the time the US is properly buckled in, China's strategic and military strength is as close to completely unassailable as possible.
 

tygyg1111

Captain
Registered Member
I understand that but consider this for the moment.

China's position as factory of the world will not change if a more robust logistics scheme were commonly used. China already once dethroned Japan and South Korea from their positions in the supply chain. If corporations were to maintain stockpiles, their continuous appetite would demand even more inputs and components from their suppliers. To keep up with this demand, the owner of the means of production would have to scale up their own infrastructure—China's control over global manufacturing would be even more outsized than it currently is because there is no viable alternative who can reach the same point on the optimization plane between cost-depth-skills.

Wouldn't this be a monumental advantage in tech and trade war?
Selling some plastic for $50 is different from selling a $50 pack of bullets to someone that will use it against you.

There is leverage in holding the power to withold a resource; there is no leverage in allowing foreign stockpiles as they are out of your control
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Trump is claiming some kind of trade deal was signed today. Whether it has any bearing on reality remains to be seen.



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Lutnick has corroborated the alleged signing of a deal, again without specifics.

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I only mention it because other sources hinted that something like this might be coming soon.



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"In recent days, after approval, both sides have further confirmed details on the framework," the person said. "The Chinese side will review and approve eligible applications for export of controlled items in accordance with the law. The US side will correspondingly cancel a series of restrictive measures taken against China."

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2025-06-27 14:39

有记者问:近日,美方有关官员和媒体称,中美已就落实日内瓦共识的框架达成了补充谅解,中国将加快向美国出口稀土,美方相应取消对华有关限制措施。请问商务部对此有何评论?

答:在中美两国元首共识指引下,双方经贸团队于6月9日至10日在伦敦举行经贸会谈,就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的框架达成原则一致。伦敦会谈后,中美双方团队保持着密切沟通。近日,经批准,双方进一步确认了框架细节。中方将依法审批符合条件的管制物项出口申请。美方将相应取消对华采取的一系列限制性措施。期望美方与中方相向而行,按照两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和要求,进一步发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用,不断增进共识、减少误解、加强合作,共同推动中美经贸关系健康、稳定、可持续发展。
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Any mispronunciation will be taken as disrespect against the great leader and result in at least a decade of forced reeducation/tree planting in Inner Mongolia. Better practice those pesky intonations!
Learn from Lei Feng's Good Example.
Poor Trump. Pity Trump. All Trump ever wanted was Khamanei calling Trump "Daddy"!

Awww... he so wants a love letter from Khamenei like he got from Kim.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Don't you love just-in-time logistics? Capitalists optimizing for "efficiency" rather than robustness is how the entire world got into this stupid mess in the first place.
Well, there's a saying that any idiot can build a bridge that works, but only an engineer can build a bridge that works at bare minimum budget and is a small safety margin away from collapse.
 
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