Trump 2.0 official thread

[CMP]

You are correct. My exposure to these dynamics come from a stint doing data science for banks. I'm certainly not a SME.

Wouldn't the current export restrictions only cause greater urgency in on-shoring production?

On-shoring production is a different issue from building up and maintaining reserves of production inputs. On-shoring is impossible in most strategically important cases (for numerous obvious reasons that we can get into if you like) and can take 5-15 years even in the cases that are possible. Building up reserves though can be achieved in several months if China does not control exports of strategic materials.

 

[CMP]

If you are going to get into a car crash, does it matter whether your seat belt is buckled or not? Even if your car has seat belts, if they are not buckled and worn correctly you will still be screwed. It is in China's interest for the US change from unbuckled to buckled to take as long as possible, even if it cannot be delayed indefinitely. During that transition period, it is when the US will be more restrained and discouraged from taking large actions that can speed the car towards a wall (US-China military conflict). We want to delay that as long as possible so that by the time the US is properly buckled in, China's strategic and military strength is as close to completely unassailable as possible.

 

[tygyg1111]

I understand that but consider this for the moment.

China's position as factory of the world will not change if a more robust logistics scheme were commonly used. China already once dethroned Japan and South Korea from their positions in the supply chain. If corporations were to maintain stockpiles, their continuous appetite would demand even more inputs and components from their suppliers. To keep up with this demand, the owner of the means of production would have to scale up their own infrastructure—China's control over global manufacturing would be even more outsized than it currently is because there is no viable alternative who can reach the same point on the optimization plane between cost-depth-skills.

Wouldn't this be a monumental advantage in tech and trade war?

Selling some plastic for $50 is different from selling a $50 pack of bullets to someone that will use it against you.

There is leverage in holding the power to withold a resource; there is no leverage in allowing foreign stockpiles as they are out of your control