Trump 2.0 official thread

[Captainquirk]

The relationship wouldn’t have been a problem at all, if not for Trump and his stupid ‘art of the deal’ BS. The US could have demanded fair repayment and mineral rights without pissing the Ukrainians off in the first place. So in order to even get to this scenario was a lost in the first place.

If you were going to go hard on the deal then you should have gotten more out of it, and not just a pretty standard agreement, after the US has basically invested billions already. Remember that this deal doesn’t even mention the ‘aid’ already given


I am reiterating but, Ukrainians were already onboard with the US, they were aiming for NATO membership for god’s sake

Win for US, what win? They crashed the relationship only to then have to rebuild the relationship. This was a pure win for Ukraine, they basically got the initial debt forgiven and then tied the US into supporting them while not really giving anything more then what most people would expect them to have to give.

Just in case you missed the most important point, this whole joint development means f**k all if the war doesn’t stop. So now Trump has to go and probably give whatever concessions the Russians want in order to stop the war, so this deal will have any f**king meaning. So yea a major big WIN for Ukraine and Russia.


Had Trump not f**ked over his relationship with Ukraine, he would have had a much stronger position in his negotiations anyway and likely would have gotten more regardless.

This is like going to the supermarket and seeing a discounted item thinking it was a great deal, while not realising the price has been jacked up before the discount was applied.

And you know what funny in this, Trump was the one who cause the price to be jacked up and then he settled for the original price and called it a discount. Art of the deal right?

There’s nothing US can do to fuck up the relationship with Ukraine. Zelenskyy was gang rapped at the White House, and still came back for more.

Secondly, prior to Trump neither Biden or anyone else was asking for repayment. The objective then was to wear down the Russians. No minerals, gas…. for the U.S.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

So this just happened:

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"Trump's comments are clearly directed at China, which is importing more than 1 million barrels per day from Iran, said Scott Modell, CEO of consulting firm Rapidan Energy. Modell said U.S. sanctions are unlikely to have an impact on Iranian oil flowing to China unless the White House targets Beijing's state-owned enterprises and infrastructure."

Opportunity to really clarify where China stands in the trade war?

The claim is that 90% of Iranian oil has been flowing to China for two years (2023 and 2024). They are unlikely to stop this flow.

In fact, there is already some reason to believe that several major energy exporters are preparing for some form of possible energy blockade of China in the near future - Russia's negotiations with Qatar, Iran and Kazakhstan are related to this. This could include large-scale sanctions against the flow of Iranian oil from the US to China, as well as other measures.

 

[Mt1701d]

There’s nothing US can do to fuck up the relationship with Ukraine. Zelenskyy was gang rapped at the White House, and still came back for more.

Secondly, prior to Trump neither Biden or anyone else was asking for repayment. It was just free money to wear down the Russians.

What do you mean there was nothing the US can do to f**k up the relationship. Sure, Ukraine needed US aid to fight on, but that doesn’t mean he has to be happy about it, also it doesn’t mean he has to give more when negotiating the deal and he can play hardball as well.

You seem to be forgetting that it was Trump who boasted he could end the war day 1 into his presidency and that obviously didn’t happen and then he boasted he could stop the war in his 100days that didn’t happen. If he wanted to end the war, Ukraine had to agree and that is what we call leverage that Ukraine had and is the likely reason the deal was so lacklustre.

This deal btw that has been signed begun negotiations under Biden and the terms ended up pretty much the same. So yea Trump didn’t really do much with his macho art of the deal BS.


That’s my point, Trump wanted the mineral rights as repayment rather than a trade deal. So he didn’t achieve sh*t, got the basics and claimed victory. He didn’t win anything that was not expected with his art of the deal BS, and only cause more negatives for the US, whom now has to plug in more resources because otherwise the deal will mean f**k all. Well f**king done!

 

[fishrubber99]

I don't understand the thinking behind a potential energy embargo against China, China is one of the biggest energy importers in the world. I don't think the US has enough leverage on these countries collectively to push them to not continue selling to their biggest customer. (especially not with Iran or Russia, since there shouldn't be any substantial mutual trust between those countries and the US)

This is already being demonstrated by even Canada increasing their oil exports to China, and the UAE and other Gulf Arab states signing LNG deals with Chinese companies:

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[MortyandRick]

Sure, if we ignore everything that happens after next week. But is the US in it for the short term?

In the long term: US gets preferential access to Ukraine's resources. Isn't that the core objective

Who knows what will happen in the long term. Did you actually read the agreement? US won't get any payments back for at least a decade. Trump wanted much more but settled for much less and is touting it as a win. Hence the mental gymnastics in cope.

There’s nothing US can do to fuck up the relationship with Ukraine. Zelenskyy was gang rapped at the White House, and still came back for more.

Secondly, prior to Trump neither Biden or anyone else was asking for repayment. The objective then was to wear down the Russians. No minerals, gas…. for the U.S.

Wait, then if US can do anything they want to and still not fuck up the relationship with Ukraine, then why did they sign such a watered down agreement ? Why not just stick to their guns and request the same prior demands? Why settle for a lot less? Why not demand payment now with minerals and not have to wait a decade for payment and have the resources still owned by Ukraine?!? Starting to sound hypocritical.

 

[Captainquirk]

Wait, then if US can do anything they want to and still not fuck up the relationship with Ukraine, then why did they sign such a watered down agreement ? Why not just stick to their guns and request the same prior demands? Why settle for a lot less? Why not demand payment now with minerals and not have to wait a decade for payment and have the resources still owned by Ukraine?!? Starting to sound hypocritical.

Because of what I mentioned before.

 

[FriedButter]

In fact, there is already some reason to believe that several major energy exporters are preparing for some form of possible energy blockade of China in the near future - Russia's negotiations with Qatar, Iran and Kazakhstan are related to this. This could include large-scale sanctions against the flow of Iranian oil from the US to China, as well as other measures.

A global energy crisis is already looming over the horizon. Going through with the Iranian threat is akin to pouring a jerrycan of gasoline over a raging wild fire. They are already looking to sanction ~12% of the global energy supply. What difference is it going to make by hiking it to ~17% of the global energy supply. There is no point in any trade negotiations when the terms being offered is an unconditional surrender.

The bill also would impose a 500% tariff on imported goods from any country that purchases Russian oil, gas, uranium and other products.

The South Carolina Republican said in an interview that support for his bill crossed the critical threshold of 60 co-sponsors on Wednesday, meaning it has enough votes to overcome a Senate filibuster. By the end of the week, Graham predicted, the bill will have at least 67 co-sponsors, enough to override a potential presidential veto.

Asked how long members of Congress would be willing to wait before bringing the bill up for a vote, Graham said he wouldn’t give a time limit. “But we’re talking weeks,” he said.

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[MortyandRick]

Because of what I mentioned before.

So yeah. Like I said, using mental gymnastics to cope for a lesser deal.

 

[Barefoot]

I don't understand the thinking behind a potential energy embargo against China, China is one of the biggest energy importers in the world. I don't think the US has enough leverage on these countries collectively to push them to not continue selling to their biggest customer. (especially not with Iran or Russia, since there shouldn't be any substantial mutual trust between those countries and the US)

This is already being demonstrated by even Canada increasing their oil exports to China, and the UAE and other Gulf Arab states signing LNG deals with Chinese companies:

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Right, but can you not see how things are being lined up, to potentially do such a thing?

The talk about annexing Canada (not to mention the Greenland stuff), Iran to be bombed by Israel, with nukes if need be (or a 1953 style overthrow), Russia being pressured with carrot and stick, getting Europe to rearm to fight Russia, decoupling ...

It's the basic plan, right, to contain China - these things are all connected. The US is lining things up to pull the trigger when the time comes, but they dont want to set off one area while the other areas are being readied.

Of course the US might not have it all its own way, like it pretty much has up to now.

What other choice does the US have (besides being peaceful and sharing power - but we know without a personality transplant that aint gonna happen, right?). It has to line everything up and go for broke, or China becomes the dominant power.

The question is, what is the timeline for all this and what timeline are the other powers working to, who is gonna jump first.

Note how Russia has already said it is at war with NATO (after the firing of the giuded missiles into Russia). Iran threatened to break Israel's teeth. But both countries did nothing with these threats. They threatened and threatened and did, relatively, nothing, yet they are being put under increasing pressure. Are they fools or both waiting for China and China is telling them not yet.

 

[siegecrossbow]

A global energy crisis is already looming over the horizon. Going through with the Iranian threat is akin to pouring a jerrycan of gasoline over a raging wild fire. They are already looking to sanction ~12% of the global energy supply. What difference is it going to make by hiking it to ~17% of the global energy supply. There is no point in any trade negotiations when the terms being offered is an unconditional surrender.

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It’s the start of the Resource Wars. The Great War will happen 30 some years earlier in this timeline!